Small Craft Advisory 11, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1026 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2020

.DISCUSSION...
After a warm and dry day with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s
across east central FL, temperatures will drop to the mid and
upper 60s later tonight. A ridge extending from the Atlantic
towards the FL peninsula will continue to retreat east but the
pressure gradient will increase on Thu. Winds will pick up
significantly throughout the day from the south across east
central FL with no showers expected in the morning or early
afternoon. Highs will reach the mid 80s, with some highs and warm
low temperature records in jeopardy at a few locations. Some
models indicate a few showers developing ahead of the main event
in the late afternoon but the main squall line could first
approach Lake county late Thu evening or around midnight and
quickly spread southwest. People should prepare for the occurrence
of strong to potentially severe straight line winds, possible
embedded isolated tornadoes and heavy downpours. Showers and
storms should then exit the Treasure Coast near to just after
sunrise Friday.

As we continue to monitor the aforementioned threat of severe
weather, make sure you have multiple ways of receiving weather
alerts for your area, like a NOAA Weather Radio and/or a
smartphone.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions overnight. Winds will increase on Thu morning from
the south to 15-23 kt and gusts increasing through the day up to
30 kt at times. But before these increase at the surface, winds
will increase aloft and low-level wind shear of around 40 kt is
possible after midnight thru Thu morning mainly for the terminals
along the I-4 corridor and KLEE. A strong squall-line is forecast
to reach the terminals Thu night into early Fri morning ahead of
a cold front. SHRA and TSRA will last for 1-2 hours at any
locations and will produce straight-line winds, lightning, an
isolated tornado, and heavy downpours.

&&

.MARINE...
South winds tonight will increase across the offshore waters and a
Small Craft Advisory enters into effect later tonight and expands
to all the waters by Thu mid-morning as winds of 20 kt and higher
filter in. As the pressure gradient tightens, winds will continue
to increase offshore to 25-30 kt with gusts up to 35-40 kt in the
late afternoon and night. And for that, a Gale Watch is also in
effect, which will possibly be upgraded to a Warning later. With
severe weather moving in on Thu afternoon and night, boaters
should remain out of the water.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  64  85  58  66 /   0  20  80  10
MCO  66  85  61  67 /   0  20  80  20
MLB  68  85  62  69 /  10  20  80  30
VRB  69  85  64  71 /   0  10  80  50
LEE  65  84  59  66 /   0  20  80  10
SFB  65  86  60  66 /   0  20  80  10
ORL  66  85  61  67 /   0  20  80  10
FPR  67  85  63  71 /   0  10  80  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 10 AM EST Friday for
     Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-
     Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard
     County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.

     Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning for
     Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-
     Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard
     County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EST Thursday for Flagler
     Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian
     Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line
     to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 4 PM EST Friday for Flagler
     Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian
     Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line
     to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

Negron/Cristaldi

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Updated
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
930 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2020

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-061200-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard-Osceola-
Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Northern Brevard-
930 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2020

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
Southerly winds are forecast to increase to around 20 knots well
offshore the central Florida Atlantic coast toward sunrise Thursday.
This will seas building to around 5 feet well offshore.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
On Thursday, strong southerly winds of 20 to 30 mph with frequent
higher gusts will produce a hazard for boaters on open Atlantic, the
intracoastal waters and inland lakes. The gusty winds may blow
around unsecured objects, and snap off small tree limbs.

A fast moving squall line is forecast to reach east central Florida
late Thursday night, and then sweep offshore Martin and Saint Lucie
Counties by early Friday morning. While all of east central Florida
is at some risk for severe weather, the best chance exists from Lake
County to the I-4 corridor and east to the Space Coast Thursday
night. The primary threats will be damaging wind gusts of 60 to 70
mph, and isolated tornadoes.

Plan to have at least two reliable methods of receiving severe
weather warnings in the middle of the night, such as NOAA Weather
Radio and Wireless Emergency Alerts on you cell phone.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed tonight. Spotters should
monitor conditions late Thursday for possibility of activation.

Pendergrast/Sedlock/Cristaldi