Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Melbourne, FL

722 
WWUS52 KMLB 181850
SVSMLB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
250 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2020

FLC097-181859-
/O.CAN.KMLB.SV.W.0071.000000T0000Z-200818T1915Z/
Osceola FL-
250 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL OSCEOLA COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However gusty winds, 
frequent lightning, and heavy rain are still possible with this 
thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 2835 8145 2835 8112 2812 8129 2812 8145
      2814 8145 2814 8147
TIME...MOT...LOC 1848Z 196DEG 12KT 2819 8137 

$$

Combs

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1031 AM EDT Tue Aug 18 2020

.UPDATE...
Current-Tonight...No notable change to the persistence forecasting
this week as a mid level trough to the west and sfc ridge to the
east maintains southwesterly flow over the peninsula and thus a
favored west coast sea breeze. As of late morning, radar activity is
on the rise along the Gulf Coast of FL with the early morning
development of the sea breeze. At the east FL coast, sea breeze
arrival will be much slower, likely remaining pinned to the
immediate coast today. Shower and thunderstorm activity will move
eastward across the state through the remainder of the morning,
likely reaching the forecast area (western Lake County) a little
after midday. Coverage will steadily increase through the late
afternoon, initially favoring the I-4 corridor, then shifting
eastward where a collision with the east coast sea breeze is
expected at the coast. Rain chances of 60-70% nearly areawide, with
a bit lower potential along the Treasure Coast.

The potential for strong to severe thunderstorms has risen a tad for
this afternoon, with the morning XMR sounding reflecting a temp of
-8.3 at 500mb, suggesting a potential for up to quarter sized
 hail, wind gusts above 50 mph and as always, heavy downpours and
 frequent lightning. By the evening hours, storms will push over
 the Atlantic waters, leaving remnant debris rainfall across land
 areas. Trimmed back PoPs after sunset for interior locations, and
 eliminated chances after midnight. Highs today in the low/mid
 90s, lows in the low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR this morning. Southwesterly flow will favor west coast sea
breeze development, with thunderstorms pushing eastward through the
day. Expect VCTS at interior terminals after 18Z, with widespread
activity at nearly all terminals after 20Z. Slightly lower coverage
for VRB southward today, with activity reaching coastal terminals in
the mid to late afternoon. Wind gusts over 35 kts and vis/cig
reductions likely at all terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Today-tonight...(previous) Southwesterly flow persisting as the
Atlantic ridge axis remains south and east of the local area with
a mid level trough situated over the GOMEX. Scattered to numerous
storms expected again today, developing inland before pushing
offshore into the evening hours. Mariners should remain vigilant
for storms approaching from the west. Offshore flow this morning
around 5-8kts, before winds back S to SSE at 5-10kts this
afternoon, as the east coast sea breeze forms and pushes slightly
inland. Guidance suggested some building swell to 3-4ft this
afternoon through the overnight. However, with the remnants of
Tropical Storm Josephine now dissipated and buoy observations
indicating seas 2-3ft even to around 100nm offshore, have capped
seas at 2-3ft for today and tonight. A chance of showers and
storms will continue, especially along the Gulf Stream, through
the overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  74  90  74 /  60  40  70  30
MCO  93  75  91  75 /  60  30  70  30
MLB  91  76  90  76 /  60  40  70  30
VRB  92  75  90  75 /  50  40  70  40
LEE  92  75  91  74 /  70  30  60  30
SFB  93  74  92  74 /  70  30  70  30
ORL  93  75  91  75 /  60  30  70  30
FPR  92  75  91  76 /  50  40  70  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

Smith/Combs

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
822 AM EDT Tue Aug 18 2020

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-190000-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard-Osceola-
Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Northern Brevard-
822 AM EDT Tue Aug 18 2020

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Another round of scattered to numerous afternoon showers and
thunderstorms expected today. Storms will begin along and north of
the I-4 corridor again, before pushing eastward and eventually
offshore into the evening. Storm development will also be possible
along the collision between southwesterly flow and the east coast
sea breeze across coastal counties this afternoon. Storm motions will be east
generally northeast around 10 to 15 mph. Main hazards will be
frequent lightning, gusty winds up to 50 mph, up to quarter sized
hail and locally heavy rainfall.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
There will be a Very Low threat for flooding rain across the area
today due to heavy rainfall from afternoon thunderstorms. Have
also included a Low threat along the coastal counties, where
southwesterly flow and east coast sea breeze convergence storms
will be possible and may linger over a point longer than storms in
other parts of the area. Locally heavy rainfall totals around 2
to 3 inches will be possible in a short amount of time.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
There will be a Moderate risk for life-threatening rip currents at
area beaches today. While rips will be present all day, the threat
will be highest from 11AM and 5PM due to tidal effects. To reduce
your chance of being caught in the seaward pull of a rip current,
swim only within sight of a lifeguard, and never swim alone,
while following social distancing guidelines.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Wind gusts over 35 knots will be possible this afternoon in and
close to lightning storms. Storms will begin over inland areas,
before drifting offshore this afternoon into this evening.
Mariners on both inland lakes and on the Atlantic waters should
watch for storms approaching from the west.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
Continued southwesterly flow will produce above normal shower and
thunderstorm chances through mid week. The primary storm hazards
will remain frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds, and very
heavy rain. A Moderate Risk of rip currents looks to continue into
mid week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters should monitor the weather and self activate if needed.

Leahy/Smith

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
229 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2020

FLZ041-141-181915-
Coastal Volusia FL-Inland Volusia FL-
229 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL VOLUSIA COUNTY UNTIL 315
PM EDT...

At 229 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Daytona International Speedway, or near Daytona Beach, moving east at
10 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Deltona, Daytona Beach, Port Orange, Ormond Beach and DeLand.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2943 8107 2910 8090 2900 8083 2895 8125
      2926 8121 2927 8115 2928 8115 2941 8116
      2943 8111
TIME...MOT...LOC 1829Z 262DEG 7KT 2918 8108

Combs

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
233 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2020

FLZ045-053-181915-
Osceola FL-Orange FL-
233 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ORANGE AND
NORTHWESTERN OSCEOLA COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

At 233 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Osceola Heritage Park, or over Buena Ventura Lakes, moving northeast
at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Orlando, Kissimmee, Saint Cloud, Winter Park and Wedgefield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2861 8137 2861 8099 2807 8122 2809 8145
      2814 8146 2814 8152 2820 8152 2822 8154
TIME...MOT...LOC 1833Z 213DEG 13KT 2830 8135

Combs