Rip Current Statement 21, NWS Melbourne, FL

East Central Florida Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
917 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2020

.DISCUSSION...

Currently/overnight...The approaching Gulf disturbance will spread
considerable clouds across the area.  Winds will become light and
variable across east central FL. Low temperatures will drop to the
lower 60s across locations away from urban areas, where lows will
remain at the mid 60s as well as the coastal communities.

Sun...Tomorrow, the bulk of the aforementioned area of higher
moisture will reach the FL peninsula at the low and mid levels, with
PWAT values of an inch and a half. At the mid levels also, an
elongated area from west to east of higher vorticity will stretch
into our area. CAPE values, however, will be very low for convection
to initiate and so, showers remain in the forecast. These are
expected to reach first the northern counties of Lake and Volusia in
the late morning, and spread through the rest of east central FL in
the afternoon. Rainfall amounts could be around one tenth on an inch
in general. Temps will feel cooler due to the cloudiness as highs
near 80 are expected. With seas building and a long period swell
reaching the local beaches, a high risk for rip currents is forecast
for Sunday.

Mon-Tue...High pressure across the Mid-Atlantic coast shifts
offshore into the west Atlantic, with ridge axis gradually shifting
southward across the area. This will shift low level winds from the
E/SE Monday to the S/SW into Tuesday. There still remains some
uncertainty in overall rain chances for the area. However, models
trending drier across Volusia and northern Lake County into Monday,
with lingering low end rain chances (20-30 percent) from Orlando
area southward. Then, there still seems to be enough moisture across
the area to keep a slight chance for showers on Tuesday. However,
overall rainfall looks limited from this activity, with much of the
area remaining dry. Temperatures will warm through early next week,
with highs reaching as high as the low to mid 80s Monday to mid
(potentially upper) 80s across the interior on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR tonight and through the morning hours Sunday, with increasing
cloud coverage during Sunday from the top down. Generally light
winds overnight, with an diminishing onshore wind past midnight at
the coast, returning to light tonight into Sun morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight-Sun...Light winds with seas building to 3-5 ft are expected
tonight. Then on Sunday, seas will build from the northeast due to a
long period swell (13-14 seconds). Seas will increase to 5-7 feet
offshore with winds at less than 15 knots. A Small Craft Advisory
has been issued to address the offshore seas, which could get choppy
especially along the Gulf Stream. Seas within 20NM will remain 4-5
ft east of Volusia/Brevard and up to 5-6 ft east of Treasure Coast.

Sunday night-Monday...Wave guidance continues to decrease the
maximum wave heights that will make it into the coastal waters from
a distant low pressure system, but only slightly. Swells will
combine with onshore winds up to 10-15 knots to produce combined
seas up to 6 to 7 feet over the adjacent Atlantic Sunday night-
Monday, with dominant periods up to 12-13 seconds.

These long period swells will produce hazardous conditions near
inlets especially during the outgoing tide, and a Small Craft
Advisory may be needed for at least for the offshore waters.

Tuesday-Thursday...Seas are forecast to gradually subside through
late week, falling below 7 ft by Tuesday and decreasing to 3-5 feet
Wed-Thu. Winds will veer to the SE to S Tuesday as ridge axis slips
south across the waters. By Wed, the ridge axis will be south of the
waters, resulting in a W/SW (offshore) flow 10-15 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Persistent dry conditions will halt for a little as we expect an
increase in moisture on Sunday. Minimum RH values will be higher,
ranging from 60s along the coast and 50s across the interior.
Winds will be up to 10 mph and up to 15 mph along the barrier
islands and immediate coast south of the Cape. Isolated to scattered
showers will then be possible in the afternoon. Additional showers
are forecast on Mon but mainly for Osceola/Brevard southward, with
minimum RH values of 40-50% north of Osceola.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  65  78  63  79 /  10  40  20  10
MCO  66  80  64  84 /  10  30  20  20
MLB  65  78  65  78 /  10  40  30  20
VRB  64  80  63  79 /  10  40  30  20
LEE  64  80  63  85 /  10  30  20  20
SFB  64  79  62  83 /  10  30  20  10
ORL  66  80  64  83 /  10  30  20  20
FPR  63  81  64  79 /  10  40  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 6 AM EDT Monday for
     Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-
     Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard
     County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

Negron/Weitlich

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
805 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2020

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-051200-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard-Osceola-
Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Northern Brevard-
805 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2020

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

Hazardous boating conditions will develop Sunday morning and last
into early next week across the Atlantic waters as a long period
swell builds in. These swells will maintain a high to extreme
risk of rip currents and building surf at area beaches.

Relative humidities will increase above critical thresholds Sunday
through mid week. However, high fire danger will return by the
middle of this week due to limited rainfall chances, continued
dry vegetation, and increasing temperatures to near record highs.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed tonight.

Rodriguez