Gale Watch 2, NWS Melbourne, FL

891 
WHUS72 KMLB 210909
MWWMLB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
409 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2020

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-212100-
/O.EXT.KMLB.SC.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-200121T1900Z/
/O.UPG.KMLB.GL.A.0002.200121T2100Z-200122T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KMLB.GL.W.0002.200121T1900Z-200122T2100Z/
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-
409 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, north winds 25 to 30 kt with 
  gusts up to 45 kt and seas 11 to 16 feet expected. For the 
  Small Craft Advisory, north winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 
  35 kt and seas 7 to 9 feet.

* WHERE...central Florida Atlantic coastal waters. 

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 2 PM EST this
  afternoon. For the Gale Warning, from 2 PM this afternoon to 4 
  PM EST Wednesday. 

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for gale conditions.

&&

$$

KN

East Central Florida Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
917 AM EST Mon Jan 20 2020

.DISCUSSION...

...Much Colder Weather Through Tuesday Night...
...Very Hazardous Boating and Beach Conditions into Midweek...

Current...Lower clouds ascd with the earlier frontal zone will clear
out of the Treasure Coast by late morning. Ongoing advection of much
cooler swd will keep temps confined into the 60s over most of the
area with some upper 50s likely remaining in Volusia and N Lake
counties, and north of Metro Orlando today.

modified prev disc...

Today-tonight...Monitoring extent of upstream marine cloud deck for
adt'l coastal SCU to develop today through tonight. Some of these
clouds will brush the coast, perhaps even accompanied by a few ocean-
effect type sprinkles along the barrier islands after sunset. Given
trajectory of winds behind the front, there should be a fairly large
(at last 2 category) temperature range for the coastal versus inland
temperatures.

Min temps in the U30s NW of I-4, with L40s southward across the rest
of the interior and far western areas of the coastal counties,
increasing to the 50s for the immediate Space/Treasure Coast barrier
islands. Wind chill readings will drop into the L-M30s NW of I-4 for
about 2-5hr late tonight.

Tue-Wed... A high pressure over the mid Mississippi valley on Tue
will slowly shift east while a low pressure will start to develop
along a lingering front stretching from the Atlantic towards Cuba.
This two systems will interact and create a strong pressure gradient
off the coast of the Carolinas. This gradient will remain through
the period. On Tue night and Wed, both GFS and Euro indicate the
development of another very dynamic area of low pressure (gale) just
northeast to the northern Bahamas.

Winds over land will remain from the NNW on Tue through Wed morning.
This will allow for another round of cold air advection to move from
the southeast U.S. into east central FL. Temps on Tue will only
climb to the mid and upper 50s for Orange and northern Brevard while
lower to mid 60s for Brevard southward to Martin county. The on Tue
night, we will experience the coldest night so far this season.
Temps are forecast to drop to the 30s west of I-95 while coastal
areas will remain in the lower 40s. But these will combine with the
northerly breeze of 5-10 mph to produce wind chill temperatures of
lower 30s west of I-95 from Brevard to Volusia and interior while
inland Volusia. These conditions will meet our local criteria for a
Wind Chill Advisory, which might be necessary late Tue night into
early Wed morning.

It is interesting to note no freezes have been recorded in the east
central FL climate recording sites since Jan 19, 2018.

On Wed, the high pressure will be elongated over the eastern states
and the low pressure northeast of the Bahamas and slowly retreating
east. The local wind flow will then veer from the northeast,
modifying the air, becoming more marine and temperatures will warm
up. Highs on Wed are expected to reach the 60s with rain chances
reaching the coastal counties. Then on Wed night, lows will drop to
the 50s, with the exception of northern Lake where it could drop
just below 50 and the immediate coastal communities of the Treasure
Coast will remain in the lower 60s.

Thu-Sun... High pressure centered over the mid-Atlantic will dig to
the south towards the FL peninsula. As a low pressure moves away to
the northeast, the pressure gradient will finally relax and winds
becoming easterlies. On Sat, an area of low pressure is being shown
by the two main models developing over the mid-Atlantic states and
lifting to the northeast along the northeast U.S. coast. A cold
front will be pushed over the FL peninsula on Sat, returning NW
winds to the area. Temps will start on Thu in the lower 70s, mid-
upper 70s on Fri, low to mid 70s on Sat and upper 60s to lower 70s
on Sun. Fri and Fri night could be times with higher chances for
rain across most of east central FL ahead of the front. Loss on Thu
night and Fri night will be in the 50s. Then on Sat night and after
the front passage, temps will cool down to the upper 40s/lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...Low clouds over the FPR-SUA sites will break up and
dissipated by late this morning. SKC to BKN250 for most areas,
however aerodromes along the coastal corridor (esp MLB-SUA) will
likely be dealing with some marine SCU later today-tonight with CIGs
near BKN-OVC030-035 lurking just offshore.

&&

.MARINE...
Today-tonight...Winds/seas within advisory criteria with rising sea
state continuing through tonight.

In addition to hazardous boating conditions, the strong northerly
winds will produce building surf (up to 6ft breakers) and a strong
north to south flowing longshore current. A Beach Hazards Statement
continues through early this evening.

Tue-Wed...As a high pressure builds over central U.S. and a gale
develops to our east, a strong to near-gale northerly wind flow will
develop over the central FL Atlantic waters, creating dangerous
boating conditions. Seas of 7-9 ft on Tue will build to 9-14 ft on
Wed. The WNWAVE model brings the high seas quickly and higher than
14 ft. For now, the seas were capped at 14 ft as up and down
fluctuations will depend on the location and strength of the low.
Wind and seas will then start to slowly subside on Wed evening.

Thu-Fri...On Thu, as the gale retreats to the east and away from FL,
winds will decrease but seas will range 7-10 ft on Thu and 6-9 ft on
Fri.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
While RFW conditions are not anticipated, min RH values will reach
the L-M40s over the interior over the next two afternoon, with U30s
possible Lake and adjacent parts of western Volusia/Seminole/Orange
and NW Osceola Cos. A north wind near 15 MPH is also expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  60  41  55  39 /   0  10  10  10
MCO  62  42  58  37 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  64  46  61  43 /   0  20  10  20
VRB  66  49  62  44 /   0  20  10  20
LEE  60  38  55  33 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  61  41  57  37 /   0   0  10  10
ORL  61  43  57  37 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  66  50  63  43 /   0  20  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for Flagler Beach to
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County
     Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line
     to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for Sebastian Inlet
     to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet
     20-60 nm.

&&

JP/CL/DKW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
530 AM EST Mon Jan 20 2020

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-210000-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard-Osceola-
Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Northern Brevard-
530 AM EST Mon Jan 20 2020

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
North winds of 20 to 25 knots will cause seas to build to between
6 and 8 feet near shore and up to 10 feet well offshore over the
local Atlantic through at late tonight. A Small Craft Advisory
remains in effect for these hazardous boating conditions.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
The brisk north winds today will also produce rough, choppy surf,
dangerous rip currents, and a strong southward flowing longshore
current at the central Florida Atlantic beaches. Due to these
conditions, swimming is not recommended today, and beachgoers may
want to stay out of the water entirely.

.EXCESSIVE COLD IMPACT...
Temperatures across Lake, Interior Volusia, and far northwestern
Orange Counties will drop into the upper 30s late tonight. These
cold temperatures will combine with northerly winds of around 10
mph to produce wind chill readings between 30 and 35 degrees
between 4 and 8 AM Tuesday morning. If you will be outdoors very
during that time, be sure to dress appropriately for the cold
weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
It will be cold again Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning,
as temperatures fall into the mid to upper 30s across most areas
west of Interstate 95. Wind chills in the upper 20s and lower 30s
are also expected. Lows in Lake and northwestern Volusia Counties
may fall to near freezing around sunrise Wednesday. Patchy frost
will be possible, especially in rural, wind-protected areas away
from the coast. Boating and beach conditions will stay dangerous
through Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

Cristaldi