Beach Hazards Statement 17, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
840 PM EDT Wed May 6 2020

.DISCUSSION...

Evng analysis shows a sharp dew point gradient over the neck of the
peninsula with an isold shra/tsra out ahead of it. Analysis of the
H100-H70 lyr shows the axis of the short wave trof approaching the
east FL coast, while H85-H50 analysis shows a thin "moisture"
boundary extending from Tampa Bay to Cape Canaveral. All suggest the
frontal boundary impinging on the I-4 Corridor. Behind, a strong
surge of W/NW winds dominates the WX pattern over the Deep South/NE
GOMex.

The frontal boundary will push through east central FL overnight. In
its wake, skies will clear as the brisk NWrly flow pushes the much
drier air down the peninsula. Northerly sfc pgrad acrs the peninsula
arnd 2.5MB...geostrophic table suggest sustained winds arnd 15KTS,
though 10KTS probably more likely in reality. Either way, too strong
to allow decoupling overnight. West winds veering to NW thru
daybreak could be breezy at times, esp along the coast. Bcmg
noticeably cooler, especially over the interior with min temps in the
M/U50s by daybreak...U50s/L60s along the immediate coast.

Only cosmetic changes needed to the aftn fcst...update to remove
precip from the nrn counties, as well as to freshen up wording.
Basic trend is on course.

&&

.AVIATION...Thru 8/00Z.
Sfc Winds: Thru 07/03Z...W 10-14KTS ocnl G18-22KTS. Btwn 07/03Z-
07/06Z...bcmg NW 9-13KTS. Btwn 07/12Z-07/15Z...bcmg N/NW 12-16KTS
fqnt G18-23KTS. Btwn 07/21Z-07/24Z...bcmg N/NE 9-13KTS.

Vsbys/WX/Cigs: VFR all sites...cigs AOA FL120.

&&

.MARINE...
Cold front approaching the Cape Canaveral area as of sunset this
evng fcst to push south of Lake-O/Jupiter Inlet aft midnight. In its
wake, sfc/bndry lyr winds increasing out of the W/NW thru early Thu
mrng, bcmg a fresh to strong NW breeze in the predawn hrs. By
daybreak, seas building to 5-7FT nearshore and 6-8FT offshore...
dominant pds AOB 7sec. A Small Craft Advisory will go into effect at
10PM/02Z tonight for hazardous boating conditions areawide. No sig
changes to the aftn fcst package.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Coastal Volusia-Indian River-Inland Volusia-
     Martin-Northern Brevard-Northern Lake-Okeechobee-Orange-
     Osceola-Seminole-Southern Brevard-Southern Lake-St. Lucie.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT
     Thursday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-
     20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-
     Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
     Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to
     Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to
     Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

Bragaw/Volkmer

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
814 PM EDT Wed May 6 2020

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-071000-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard-Osceola-
Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Northern Brevard-
814 PM EDT Wed May 6 2020

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
Winds will become northwest to north behind a passing cold front
tonight, with speeds increasing up to 20 to 25 knots and seas
building up to 6 to 8 feet. A Small Craft Advisory will be in
effect tonight after 10 pm for all the Atlantic Waters for these
hazardous boating conditions.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for Thursday. Relative humidity
values will fall to less than 30 percent west of I 95, with winds
around 15 mph in the afternoon. Critical fire conditions are
likely.

This weekend, an area of unsettled weather will track toward the
Florida peninsula from the gulf of Mexico. There is increasing
likelihood of locally heavy rain and embedded lightning storms
developing across much of the area Saturday night and continuing
into at least Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed tonight.

Volkmer