Areal Flood Warning 3, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
215 PM EDT Thu May 28 2020

.DISCUSSION...

...Locally Heavy Rains Possible through at least Saturday...

Through tonight...Showers and lightning storms will continue to
increase in coverage through the remainder of this afternoon and
evening. Focus for highest coverage will shift toward the interior
through the afternoon with sea breezes moving inland and where more
boundary interactions will occur.  As we get toward the early
evening hours, some storms may get pushed back toward the
Brevard and Volusia coasts.  Scattered convection will linger into
the evening, but no precipitation is expected after midnight.

Overall storm motion will be slow, and with such deep moisture in
place, storms may produce a very quick two inches of rainfall
possibly resulting in flooding of poor-drainage areas and ponding of
water on roadways.  Other storms hazards will be wind gusts around
50 mph in the strongest storms as well as frequent lightning.

Tonight's low temperatures will be in the low to middle 70s.

Friday (modified previous)...All ingredients utilizing a
traditional wet season regime indicate deep convection, with slow
moving afternoon storms likely producing some locally heavy rains.
Deep layer winds out of the SW along with PWAT values around 2
inches (51mm) and an UL wave moving across the OH/TN Valleys will
favor numerous showers and afternoon storms along and east of the
I-4 corridor with sct coverage across the Treasure Cst to Lake
Okeechobee. Main threats will be frequent lightning, downburst
winds of 40 to 50 mph along with periods of torrential rainfall.

Weekend (previous)...Upr troughing will swing east of the
Appalachians and this axis will depart east of the local area Sat
night. Before this occurs, a favorable setup will remain Sat along
the interior to east coast of the peninsula for development of
Sct- Nmrs lightning storms. Coverage of showers and storms wl be
slightly lower Sun as some drying is indicated behind the
departing shortwave. Rain chances 50 to 70 percent Sat will reduce
to around 40-50 pct during Sunday.

Extended (previous)...Early next week, GFS and EC guid indicates
a large area of high pressure to the north bringing development of
onshore flow. This pattern does not appear to tap significant
moisture through at least the first half of the week and PoP will
be limited in general, with higher than Isold mention along the
Treasure Cst. Expect normal temp ranges due to strong marine
influence.

&&

.AVIATION...

Sea breezes moving inland from both coasts are generating scattered
TSRA. Convection will continue to move inland away from coastal
terminals this afternoon with a collision occurring over the
interior btwn 21Z-23Z. Potential for wet microbursts exists with
gusts greater than 35 knots in some storms. Airport Weather Warning
may be needed for MCO/ORL later this afternoon. Have ramped up TEMPO
groups for SFB/MCO/ISM with +TSRA and wind gusts of 30 knots for
now. Storms may push back toward the east coast (TIX/MLB) this
evening so added a VCSH there at 00Z.

&&

.MARINE...

Through tonight...Scattered showers and storms will be in the
vicinity of the nearshore Atlantic waters and Intracoastal
Waterway through mid afternoon before activity transitions inland.
However, some storms are forecast to push back toward the east
coast early this evening. Boaters should keep an eye on the eye
for thunderstorms approaching from the west.

Friday (modified previous)...Marine conditions marginally
favorable with seas around 3-4 ft and southerly winds 5-10 kt
becoming southeasterly 10-15 kt in the afternoon. Winds and seas
will be locally higher near scattered to numerous showers and
storms moving offshore.

Weekend...Seas wl continue to average 3-4 ft this weekend due to
an expected swell component, with an light onshore wind,
increasing in the afternoons due to sea breeze development.

Extended...Light to gentle onshore winds early next week with
seas around 3-4 ft Mon, increasing to 4 to 6 ft by early Tue as
onshore winds show an increase in gradient. headlines will likely
be needed by Mon night into Tue as seas increase near advisory
criteria.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  87  69  89 /  30  60  30  60
MCO  73  90  72  90 /  40  70  20  70
MLB  75  86  71  87 /  20  50  30  60
VRB  74  87  71  87 /  20  40  30  50
LEE  74  89  71  91 /  40  70  10  60
SFB  74  89  72  91 /  40  70  20  70
ORL  75  88  70  90 /  40  70  20  70
FPR  73  87  71  87 /  20  40  30  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Combs
LONG TERM....Sedlock
AVIATION...Kelly

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Updated
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1120 AM EDT Thu May 28 2020

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-290000-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard-Osceola-
Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Northern Brevard-
1120 AM EDT Thu May 28 2020

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop
across east central Florida this afternoon, with the greatest
coverage of storms across the inland areas. These storms will be
slow moving today. The strongest storms will be capable of
producing dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, torrential
downpours, and strong wind gusts up to 50 mph.

Remember that lightning can strike more than 10 miles away from a
storm, and just because you do not hear thunder, does not mean you
are safe from lightning. If you see lightning nearby, go into a
sturdy building and wait for the storms to pass before returning
outdoors.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
There is a moderate risk of rip currents today at all east central
Florida beaches. While dangerous rip currents will be present all
day the risk will be greatest after 3 PM this afternoon, due to
tidal effects. Be sure to always swim at a life guarded beach and
never swim alone.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
Slow moving storms this afternoon will produce locally heavy
rainfall, mostly west of Interstate 95. The heaviest rain storms
could result in 2 to 4 inches of rain in a short amount of time.
This will lead to minor flooding of roads, culverts, and low lying
and poor drainage areas.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Scattered to numerous shower and lightning storms will develop
across the interior peninsula today. Some of these storms could
produce wind gusts in excess of 34 knots over inland lakes and
waterways, as well as along the coast.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
Scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms will occur each
afternoon and early evening through the weekend and early next week.
Deadly cloud to ground lightning strikes, localized flooding from
heavy rainfall, and gusty winds are the main threats. By mid next
week rain chances decrease, with only isolated to scattered storms
expected.

The risk of rip currents will be remain moderate into this weekend,
then increase to moderate to high early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed this afternoon and tonight.

Rodriguez/Sedlock

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