Alert archive / Wisconsin / Wind Advisories in 2020
Wind Advisory 6, NWS Milwaukee, WI
NWS Milwaukee, WI issued this wind advisory at Nov 10, 2020, 3:09 AM CST for 20 counties in Wisconsin. It took effect at Nov 10, 2020, 1:00 PM CST. It was in force for 15 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 10, 2020, 3:09 AM CST (09:09 UTC)
- In effect from
- Nov 10, 2020, 1:00 PM CST
- Expired
- Nov 11, 2020, 4:00 AM CST
- In force
- 15 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Milwaukee, WI
Counties Columbia County, WI, Dane County, WI, Dodge County, WI, Fond du Lac County, WI, Green County, WI, Green Lake County, WI, Iowa County, WI, Jefferson County, WI, Kenosha County, WI, Lafayette County, WI, Marquette County, WI, Milwaukee County, WI, Ozaukee County, WI, Racine County, WI, Rock County, WI, Sauk County, WI, Sheboygan County, WI, Walworth County, WI, Washington County, WI, Waukesha County, WI
The radar
The Milwaukee radar (KMKX), 31 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:13 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 00:00Z, 9.2 hours before the alert went out and 157 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 13 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -133 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1258 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 43 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 226 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 271 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
932 WWUS73 KMKX 100909 NPWMKX URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 309 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020 WIZ064>066-069>072-101715- /O.NEW.KMKX.WI.Y.0006.201110T1900Z-201111T1000Z/ Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha- Including the cities of Watertown, Fort Atkinson, Jefferson, Waukesha, Brookfield, New Berlin, Menomonee Falls, Muskego, Milwaukee, Janesville, Beloit, Whitewater, Delavan, Elkhorn, Lake Geneva, East Troy, Racine, and Kenosha 309 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph this afternoon. Southwest to west winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph this evening into tonight. * WHERE...Jefferson, Waukesha, Milwaukee, Rock, Walworth, Racine and Kenosha Counties. * WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM CST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. && $$ WIZ051-052-058>060-101715- /O.NEW.KMKX.WI.Y.0006.201111T0000Z-201111T1000Z/ Fond du Lac-Sheboygan-Dodge-Washington-Ozaukee- Including the cities of Fond Du Lac, Plymouth, Sheboygan Falls, Howards Grove, Oostburg, Beaver Dam, Waupun, Mayville, West Bend, Germantown, Hartford, Mequon, Cedarburg, and Grafton 309 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Southwest to west winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph expected. * WHERE...Fond du Lac, Sheboygan, Dodge, Washington and Ozaukee Counties. * WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 4 AM CST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. && $$ DDV
6 follow-up statements
351 WWUS73 KMKX 101510 NPWMKX URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 910 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020 WIZ064>066-069>072-102315- /O.CON.KMKX.WI.Y.0006.201110T1900Z-201111T1000Z/ Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha- Including the cities of Watertown, Fort Atkinson, Jefferson, Waukesha, Brookfield, New Berlin, Menomonee Falls, Muskego, Milwaukee, Janesville, Beloit, Whitewater, Delavan, Elkhorn, Lake Geneva, East Troy, Racine, and Kenosha 910 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph this afternoon. Southwest to west winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph this evening into tonight. * WHERE...Jefferson, Waukesha, Milwaukee, Rock, Walworth, Racine and Kenosha Counties. * WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM CST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. && $$ WIZ051-052-058>060-102315- /O.CON.KMKX.WI.Y.0006.201111T0000Z-201111T1000Z/ Fond du Lac-Sheboygan-Dodge-Washington-Ozaukee- Including the cities of Fond Du Lac, Plymouth, Sheboygan Falls, Howards Grove, Oostburg, Beaver Dam, Waupun, Mayville, West Bend, Germantown, Hartford, Mequon, Cedarburg, and Grafton 910 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Southwest to west winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph expected. * WHERE...Fond du Lac, Sheboygan, Dodge, Washington and Ozaukee Counties. * WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 4 AM CST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. && $$
800 WWUS73 KMKX 101654 NPWMKX URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1054 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020 WIZ046-047-057-063-110100- /O.EXA.KMKX.WI.Y.0006.201111T0000Z-201111T1000Z/ Marquette-Green Lake-Columbia-Dane- Including the cities of Montello, Westfield, Oxford, Neshkoro, Endeavor, Berlin, Princeton, Markesan, Portage, Columbus, Lake Wisconsin, Lodi, and Madison 1054 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...West to southwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph expected. * WHERE...Marquette, Green Lake, Columbia and Dane Counties. * WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 4 AM CST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. && $$ WIZ064>066-069>072-110100- /O.CON.KMKX.WI.Y.0006.201110T1900Z-201111T1000Z/ Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha- Including the cities of Watertown, Fort Atkinson, Jefferson, Waukesha, Brookfield, New Berlin, Menomonee Falls, Muskego, Milwaukee, Janesville, Beloit, Whitewater, Delavan, Elkhorn, Lake Geneva, East Troy, Racine, and Kenosha 1054 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph this afternoon. Southwest to west winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph this evening into tonight. * WHERE...Jefferson, Waukesha, Milwaukee, Rock, Walworth, Racine and Kenosha Counties. * WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM CST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. && $$ WIZ051-052-058>060-110100- /O.CON.KMKX.WI.Y.0006.201111T0000Z-201111T1000Z/ Fond du Lac-Sheboygan-Dodge-Washington-Ozaukee- Including the cities of Fond Du Lac, Plymouth, Sheboygan Falls, Howards Grove, Oostburg, Beaver Dam, Waupun, Mayville, West Bend, Germantown, Hartford, Mequon, Cedarburg, and Grafton 1054 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Southwest to west winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph expected. * WHERE...Fond du Lac, Sheboygan, Dodge, Washington and Ozaukee Counties. * WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 4 AM CST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. && $$
158 WWUS73 KMKX 102008 NPWMKX URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 208 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2020 WIZ064>066-069>072-111000- /O.CON.KMKX.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-201111T1000Z/ Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha- Including the cities of Watertown, Fort Atkinson, Jefferson, Waukesha, Brookfield, New Berlin, Menomonee Falls, Muskego, Milwaukee, Janesville, Beloit, Whitewater, Delavan, Elkhorn, Lake Geneva, East Troy, Racine, and Kenosha 208 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2020 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph this afternoon. Southwest to west winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph this evening into tonight. * WHERE...Jefferson, Waukesha, Milwaukee, Rock, Walworth, Racine and Kenosha Counties. * WHEN...Until 4 AM CST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. && $$ WIZ046-047-051-052-057>060-063-111000- /O.CON.KMKX.WI.Y.0006.201111T0000Z-201111T1000Z/ Marquette-Green Lake-Fond du Lac-Sheboygan-Columbia-Dodge- Washington-Ozaukee-Dane- Including the cities of Montello, Westfield, Oxford, Neshkoro, Endeavor, Berlin, Princeton, Markesan, Fond Du Lac, Plymouth, Sheboygan Falls, Howards Grove, Oostburg, Portage, Columbus, Lake Wisconsin, Lodi, Beaver Dam, Waupun, Mayville, West Bend, Germantown, Hartford, Mequon, Cedarburg, Grafton, and Madison 208 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2020 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Southwest to west winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph expected. * WHERE...Fond du Lac, Sheboygan, Dodge, Washington and Ozaukee Counties. * WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 4 AM CST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. && $$
992 WWUS73 KMKX 110116 NPWMKX URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 716 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2020 WIZ056-062-067-068-111000- /O.EXA.KMKX.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-201111T1000Z/ Sauk-Iowa-Lafayette-Green- Including the cities of Baraboo, Reedsburg, Prairie Du Sac, Sauk City, Dodgeville, Mineral Point, Barneveld, Darlington, Shullsburg, Benton, Belmont, Argyle, Blanchardville, Monroe, and Brodhead 716 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2020 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * WHERE...Sauk, Iowa, Lafayette and Green Counties. * WHEN...Until 4 AM CST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. && $$ WIZ064>066-069>072-111000- /O.CON.KMKX.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-201111T1000Z/ Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha- Including the cities of Watertown, Fort Atkinson, Jefferson, Waukesha, Brookfield, New Berlin, Menomonee Falls, Muskego, Milwaukee, Janesville, Beloit, Whitewater, Delavan, Elkhorn, Lake Geneva, East Troy, Racine, and Kenosha 716 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2020 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * WHERE...Rock, Milwaukee, Jefferson, Waukesha, Racine, Walworth and Kenosha Counties. * WHEN...Until 4 AM CST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. && $$ WIZ046-047-051-052-057>060-063-111000- /O.CON.KMKX.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-201111T1000Z/ Marquette-Green Lake-Fond du Lac-Sheboygan-Columbia-Dodge- Washington-Ozaukee-Dane- Including the cities of Montello, Westfield, Oxford, Neshkoro, Endeavor, Berlin, Princeton, Markesan, Fond Du Lac, Plymouth, Sheboygan Falls, Howards Grove, Oostburg, Portage, Columbus, Lake Wisconsin, Lodi, Beaver Dam, Waupun, Mayville, West Bend, Germantown, Hartford, Mequon, Cedarburg, Grafton, and Madison 716 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2020 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * WHERE...Dodge, Ozaukee, Dane, Columbia, Marquette, Fond du Lac, Green Lake, Washington and Sheboygan Counties. * WHEN...Until 4 AM CST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. && $$
026 WWUS73 KMKX 110533 NPWMKX URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1133 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2020 WIZ046-047-056-057-062-063-067-068-110645- /O.CAN.KMKX.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-201111T1000Z/ Marquette-Green Lake-Sauk-Columbia-Iowa-Dane-Lafayette-Green- Including the cities of Montello, Westfield, Oxford, Neshkoro, Endeavor, Berlin, Princeton, Markesan, Baraboo, Reedsburg, Prairie Du Sac, Sauk City, Portage, Columbus, Lake Wisconsin, Lodi, Dodgeville, Mineral Point, Barneveld, Madison, Darlington, Shullsburg, Benton, Belmont, Argyle, Blanchardville, Monroe, and Brodhead 1133 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2020 ...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... Winds have started to taper off across southwestern Wisconsin and the wind advisory will be cancelled for these areas. $$ WIZ064>066-069>072-111000- /O.CON.KMKX.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-201111T1000Z/ Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha- Including the cities of Watertown, Fort Atkinson, Jefferson, Waukesha, Brookfield, New Berlin, Menomonee Falls, Muskego, Milwaukee, Janesville, Beloit, Whitewater, Delavan, Elkhorn, Lake Geneva, East Troy, Racine, and Kenosha 1133 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2020 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * WHERE...Rock, Milwaukee, Jefferson, Waukesha, Racine, Walworth and Kenosha Counties. * WHEN...Until 4 AM CST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. && $$ WIZ051-052-058>060-111000- /O.CON.KMKX.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-201111T1000Z/ Fond du Lac-Sheboygan-Dodge-Washington-Ozaukee- Including the cities of Fond Du Lac, Plymouth, Sheboygan Falls, Howards Grove, Oostburg, Beaver Dam, Waupun, Mayville, West Bend, Germantown, Hartford, Mequon, Cedarburg, and Grafton 1133 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2020 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * WHERE...Ozaukee, Sheboygan, Fond du Lac, Washington and Dodge Counties. * WHEN...Until 4 AM CST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. && $$
916 WWUS73 KMKX 110933 NPWMKX URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 333 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2020 WIZ064>066-069>072-111045- /O.EXP.KMKX.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-201111T1000Z/ Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha- Including the cities of Watertown, Fort Atkinson, Jefferson, Waukesha, Brookfield, New Berlin, Menomonee Falls, Muskego, Milwaukee, Janesville, Beloit, Whitewater, Delavan, Elkhorn, Lake Geneva, East Troy, Racine, and Kenosha 333 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2020 ...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 4 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING... Gusty west winds will continue to gradually weaken into the morning hours. Gusts will remain in the 30 to 35 MPH range. Thus, the Wind Advisory will be allowed to expire. $$ WIZ051-052-058>060-111045- /O.EXP.KMKX.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-201111T1000Z/ Fond du Lac-Sheboygan-Dodge-Washington-Ozaukee- Including the cities of Fond Du Lac, Plymouth, Sheboygan Falls, Howards Grove, Oostburg, Beaver Dam, Waupun, Mayville, West Bend, Germantown, Hartford, Mequon, Cedarburg, and Grafton 333 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2020 ...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 4 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING... Gusty west winds will continue to gradually weaken into the morning hours. Gusts will remain in the 30 to 40 MPH range. Thus, the Wind Advisory will be allowed to expire. $$ Wood
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this wind advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Milwaukee, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this wind advisory went out at Nov 9, 9:18 PM CST, 5 hours 51 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Nov 9, 9:18 PM CST, 5 hours 51 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
918 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2020
.UPDATE...
(Issued 918 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2020)
The cold front continues to slowly progress eastward this evening
and is almost at our doorstep. Stuck to the previous forecast
timing of showers and isolated storms nudging into the western
portions of the area tonight into Tuesday morning. Much of the
area though will stay on the warmer side with persistent breezy
southerly winds. Unless the front moves in a bit quicker don't
expect lows tonight to drop much below the 65 degree mark.
By sunrise Tuesday the western half of the area should have light
to moderate rain at times with the front bisecting the area. As
the main upper low lifts north across western WI, the SE portions
of the area will remain in the warm sector and could see a few
strong to severe storms as the main cold front comes sweeping
through Tuesday evening. Made some tweaks to timing of precip on
Tuesday but otherwise the forecast is on track.
Stumpf
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Issued 145 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2020)
Tonight:
Record setting high minimum temps likely with very mild and moist
southerly flow regime. The cold front will likely nudge close enough
to our northwest cwa for shra/tsra chances to increase into that
area later in the night per going forecast. Also this will be in an
area that will start seeing some lead DCVA within the swift
southwest 500 millibar flow. Thunder potential still looks fine
there with both GFS and NAM soundings showing at least some elevated
CAPE. And again we should see temps at amazingly mild levels for
this time of year.
Tuesday:
Frontal boundary will likely be meandering across the
western portions of the forecast area during the morning hours, so
highest confidence in ongoing shra/tsra would be in that area. Much
of the southeast will have the potential to see some breaks in the
clouds and remain unseasonably warm. If so, then some higher winds
will be possible as 925 wind max evolves ahead of the deepening low.
Attention will then turn on the approach of a potent negative tilted
shortwave. This wave riding to the northeast is expected to induce
fairly rapid cyclogenesis as low pressure rides northeast into WI by
00z. As the low strengthens it will then whip a cold front through
WI. The progs are showing a little more in the way of instability
ahead of the front but always tricky this time of year with a good
deal of cloud cover expected. In addition, the upper flow takes on a
strongly diffluent look into the southeast cwa. Overall the wind
fields collectively strengthen in the 18z-00z window. Potential for
some stronger winds with these storms certainly looks reasonable as
does SPC's highlighting our area for this potential. In fact, with
low LCL values and enhancement of the 0-1KM shear this may result in
a tornado or two in the southeast. Progs show precipitable water
values rising to an unseasonably high value nearing 1.5 inches.
However, expecting the storms to be on the move so heavy rainfall
rates may be the bigger concern. Nevertheless some areas could
certainly see over an inch of rain.
Tuesday night:
Main focus will transition from the storms with the
fropa to abrupt cold air advection helped along by strong post
frontal southwest winds that will eventually become west. Could see
gusts close to advisory criteria. Temps likely to drop off into the
30s so we will go from the crazy November warmth to a rather
blustery early Wednesday.
Collar
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Issued 145 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2020)
Wednesday through Friday:
Temperatures will be much cooler, and more fall-like, mid to late
week compared to recently with varying warming and cooling trends
given the active weather pattern still in place across the central
CONUS. With remnant cold air advection wrapping around the 850mb low
pulling well off to the northeast, subsidence will increase as high
pressure lifts northeast across the lower Great Lakes region. Any
lingering cloud cover during the morning should gradually dissipate
as drier air works into the region. Expect breezy westerly winds,
especially in the morning hours, as the surface pressure gradient
remains enhanced across the region and increasing sunshine will
promote some mixing.
Wednesday night through Thursday:
A number of shortwaves rotating around the based on longwave
troughing over the northern Plains will lift across the Upper
Mississippi Valley. As the lead shortwave lifts north on Thursday,
mid-level flow will become more amplified across the region and a
brief round of weak warm air advection will return to the region
ahead of a second shortwave rounding the base of the trough. Thus,
expect temperatures to warm into the lower 50s with increased
cloud cover on Thursday.
Thursday night through Friday:
As the main vort max and trough axis lift across the region
surface low pressure well north of the region in Ontario will
deepen with a trailing cold front expected to move across
Wisconsin. This front looks to move through overnight Thursday
into Friday morning. With stronger cold air advection behind this
front, expect a breezy and cold night with lows dropping around or
below freezing. There is a hint for of some light rain/snow as the
front moves through, but with the majority of deterministic and ensemble
guidance keeping precipitation just north of the area, opted to
maintain the ongoing dry forecast for this time period. Behind the
front, expect falling temperatures and gusty winds. As Friday
progresses, expect temperatures to rebound into the low to mid 40s
with winds relaxing throughout the day as high pressure quickly
moves southeast across southern Wisconsin.
Saturday through Monday:
A number of shortwaves are expected to track east across the area
this weekend into early next week, with the first arriving on
Saturday and a second stronger wave progged to lift across the Upper
Great Lakes Saturday night/Sunday. Majority of deterministic and
ensemble guidance show the first round of precipitation
overspreading the area on Saturday. Initially, precipitation may
start off as light snow or a rain/snow mix Saturday morning as drier
air in place should allow conditions to wet-bulb to at/near the
surface for temperatures to remain around or just below freezing.
However, as warmer air advects into the area precipitation should
quickly transition over to rain mid/late Saturday morning. As of
right now, this first round of precipitation looks to remain on the
light side.
While medium range guidance has come into a better agreement with
track of a deepening surface low over the Upper Great Lakes and into
Ontario Sunday into Monday. The mid and upper levels continue to
show quite a bit of discrepancies, which matches the uncertainty
among the ensemble guidance as well. Thus expect the details to be
refined as we get closer. For now have left blended PoPs alone for
now Saturday night through Sunday, which may be overdone at times.
Ritzman
&&
.AVIATION...
(Issued 918 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2020)
The current VFR cigs will gradually lower tonight as a combination
of the cold front off to the west nears the area and increasing
low level moisture streams northward. Cigs should drop to MVFR
ahead of the front and then fall to IFR for MSN/JVL with showers
behind the front. Locations along Lake Michigan could also see
cigs drop due to the warmer air moving over the colder lake with
some fog possible at times Tuesday morning.
Stronger winds move in off the deck tonight into Tuesday and LLWS
is expected as winds increase aloft. We start to mix down these
southerly gusts on Tuesday before the front moves through in the
evening. A line of showers and storms is expected along the front
with some stronger gusts possible with any storms. Winds quickly
shift to the west behind the front and remain gusty with 30-35kts
possible.
Stumpf
&&
.MARINE...
(Issued 145 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2020)
Will keep the small craft advisory in place tonight into mid
morning Tuesday. May be some dropoff below criteria for a time.
But all in all the winds are expected to pick back up for Tuesday
especially as strengthening low pressure heads into WI during the
afternoon. This low will result in gusty winds ahead of it and
then the stronger wind potential will set up after the low lifts
off to the north and the cold front whips through the lake. We
should see some storms with the cold front. But gale force winds
will be likely especially behind the cold front. Left the
nearshore gale warning starting earlier as some of those winds may
make it into the nearshore. Stronger inversion may keep the
prefrontal winds below gale levels prior to 00z but something to
watch as any breakdown of the inversion over those colder waters
could result in gale force winds making it down. With the higher
dew points ahead of the front potential for some fog. Have some
fog in there but confidence not great enough for hoisting an
advisory at this time.
Collar
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 9 AM
Tuesday.
Gale Warning...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...9 AM Tuesday to
midnight Wednesday.
Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...6 PM Tuesday to 3 AM
Wednesday.
&&
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www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukeeHazardous weather outlook, Nov 9, 1:25 PM CST, 13 hours 44 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 125 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2020 WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-101930- Marquette-Green Lake-Fond du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge- Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee- Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha- 125 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin. .DAY ONE...Tonight There is a small chance of thunderstorms west of Madison late. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Monday There is a chance for Thunderstorms Tuesday. A storm or two could reach severe levels, with damaging winds the main threat. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed Tuesday afternoon and evening. LMZ643>646-101930- Sheboygan to Port Washington WI- Port Washington to North Point Light WI- North Point Light to Wind Point WI- Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL- 125 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois. .DAY ONE...Tonight A Small Craft Advisory is in effect. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Monday The Small Craft Advisory will continue into mid-morning Tuesday. Winds will then be stronger late Tuesday morning into Tuesday evening ahead of and behind a cold front. A Gale Warning has been issued for this period. There is a chance of thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening. LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868- 870-872-874-876-878-101930- Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to mid-line of lake.- Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South Fox Island 5NM offshore- Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to mid lake- Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM offshore to mid lake- Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid lake- Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- 125 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake Michigan. .DAY ONE...Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Monday South winds may approach gale force across the southern half of the lake Tuesday afternoon. A Gale Warning is in effect Tuesday evening into Tuesday night, as a cold front will bring gusty southwest to west winds to Lake Michigan. There is a chance for thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening. Collar www.weather.gov/mkx
The office that day
Everything else NWS Milwaukee, WI issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2:58 PM CST | Special Weather Statement | MKX | Fond du Lac | 62 min |
| Nov 10, 3:38 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MKX | Rock, Walworth | 82 min |
| Nov 10, 4:16 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MKX | Kenosha, Racine | 74 min |
| Nov 10, 4:17 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MKX | Jefferson, Waukesha | 44 min |
| Nov 10, 4:21 PM CST | Tornado Warning | MKX | Racine, Walworth | 24 min |
| Nov 10, 4:35 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MKX | Milwaukee | 38 min |
| Nov 10, 4:37 PM CST | Special Marine Warning | MKX | 113 min | |
| Nov 10, 4:59 PM CST | Special Marine Warning | MKX | 61 min | |
| Nov 10, 5:10 PM CST | Tornado Warning | MKX | Kenosha | 20 min |
Nearby
Wind Advisories in Wisconsin, 2020Every wind advisory in 2020
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.