Special Weather Statement, NWS Milwaukee, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
341 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2020

.SHORT TERM...

Today through Friday Night - Forecast Confidence is Medium to
High...

Low level lapse rates around 9 C/km and a precipitable water
maximum around 0.75 with the 500mb trough swinging through has
sparked up some showers and thunderstorms. Dry air is present
below 700mb shown by the inverted V on soundings, and with 0-6km
shear values around 40 knots some gusty winds and small hail will
be possible with the strongest storms. Showers and storms will
then taper off as we head towards sunset as we lose our
instability. Activity will be mainly north of a Madison to
Milwaukee line. Winds will also become lighter and shift to the
north to northeast overnight into Friday morning as the front
pushes through. Friday is expected to be dry, but will have to
watch out for a stray shower or storm in the afternoon. Some CAMs
are developing isolated showers and storms, but soundings do not
look supportive at this time.

.LONG TERM...

Saturday through Thursday - Forecast Confidence is Medium to
High...

High pressure is expected to build over Great Lakes region
Saturday as the upper level ridge pushes east. This will result
in pleasant conditions through the weekend into next week.
Temperatures will be on the cooler side this weekend with highs in
the 60s to low 70s. Areas along the lake may remain in the 50s
with winds off of the lake. We'll begin to warm up Monday with
temperatures possibly hitting 90 degrees on Wednesday. Will have
to watch for slight chances for thunderstorms next week, but at
this point rain and thunderstorms remain west of the forecast
area.

&&

.AVIATION(21Z TAFS)...

A few showers and thunderstorms have developed mainly north of a
Madison to Milwaukee line. These will continue over the next few
hours before tapering off around 00Z. The strongest storms may
produce brief gusts up to 40 knots and small hail. Ceilings may
also drop to 7,000 feet within the showers and storms.

Gusty southwest to west winds will lighten as we head towards 00Z
and then shift to the north to northeast Friday morning.

&&

.MARINE...

Thunderstorms this afternoon will continue before tapering off
around sunset. Strongest storms could produce brief gusts up to 40
knots and small hail. Best potential for strong storms will be
over central Lake Michigan.

Gusty southwest to west winds up to 30 knots over the nearshore
waters will drop below 20 knots early this evening. Tonight into
Friday morning a front will move down the lake bringing north to
northeast winds. Gusts could get up to 30 knots over the southern open
waters, but are expected to remain just below Small Craft
Advisory levels for the nearshore. High pressure will then settle
in Friday night into Saturday bringing quiet conditions through
the weekend.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LMZ643>646.

&&

Tonight/Friday and Aviation/Marine...RAH
Friday Night through Thursday...RAH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
342 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2020

WIZ051-058-059-112130-
Dodge-Washington-Fond Du Lac-

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN FOND DU LAC...
WASHINGTON AND NORTHEASTERN DODGE COUNTIES...

At 341 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Waupun, moving
southeast at 50 mph.

Winds of 40 to 50 mph and pea size hail are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
West Bend, Hartford, Waupun, Jackson, Mayville, Slinger, Kewaskum,
Horicon, Lomira, Campbellsport, Theresa, Newburg, Iron Ridge,
Burnett, Addison, Ashford, Brownsville, Wayne, Kekoskee and Nenno.

LAT...LON 4337 8806 4335 8806 4326 8815 4353 8888
      4371 8872 4357 8816 4354 8816 4354 8804
      4337 8804
TIME...MOT...LOC 2041Z 292DEG 45KT 4360 8867

GAGAN