Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
337 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will cross the area this evening and move offshore
tonight. The front will linger to our south through late week as
Bermuda high pressure builds in from the east for the next several
days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 320 PM Monday...Active convection underway over the
southern tier of the CWA at mid-afternoon with the stronger
thunderstorms producing small hail. Atmosphere quite unstable
across the region with surface-based CAPES as high as 4000 J/kg
and LI's down to around -9, so the potential for locally
damaging winds and larger hail will continue for a few more
hours. Overall, the threat of scattered strong to potentially
severe storms will continue until or shortly after 00z as
vigorous mid- level shortwave crosses the area and moves
offshore later this evening. Once the shortwave moves offshore,
would expect a quick ending to the precipitation with loss of
daytime heating. Skies clear overnight and with wet ground, some
patchy fog is possible. Lows will be in the low to mid 70s by
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
As of 325 PM Monday...Weak ridging develops across the region
tomorrow in the wake of the mid-level shortwave. Any convective
development on Tuesday will be limited to sea breeze initiation
and widely scattered, so will have just a slight chance (20%)
PoP for Tuesday. Uniform temperatures expected for Tuesday with
highs 90-92 in most areas, except mid/upper 80s Outer Banks.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 PM Mon...Upper level ridging continues over the
Carolinas through midweek, again leaving the primary focus for
afternoon convection on the sea breeze. Highs in the upper 80s
to low 80s each day. Lows in the mid to upper 70s.

Late week, a surface low develops over the Ohio Valley and pushes
northeastward through New England, eventually dragging a front into
North Carolina for the weekend. Models generally agree on timing but
that is about where the comparison ends as the GFS spins up the
system quickly and is more robust throughout the rest of the run. In
its wake, a relative surface high develops over the Ohio valley and
helps push convection with the front into North Carolina. By
contrast, the ECMWF solution is not as strong and doesn't develop
this feature. Therefore it is weaker and slower with the surface
low, and the associated front has a hard time making it into eastern
NC. Will handle for now with chance PoPs until more details evolve.
Regardless, it will continue to be warm with highs around 90 and
lows in the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term /through 18Z Tuesday/...
As of 1215 PM Monday...VFR conditions at early afternoon, but
fairly widespread convection is possible over the next few hours
with unstable airmass and a decent mid-level shortwave crossing
the area. Continued with TEMPO for scattered thunderstorms with
brief reduced vsbys/cigs in the late afternoon hours. All
convection should wane fairly quickly by 02-03z, followed by a
mid deck of clouds. With wet ground and light winds, some light
fog (MVFR) is possible toward morning on Tuesday.

Long Term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 4 PM Monday...VFR expected through much of the long term
aside from sea breeze convection during the afternoons and an
associated chance of fog during the early morning hours where
rain occurs. By the end of the week attention will turn to an
approaching front that may bring an increased chance of showers
and storms to the area. With this will come a better chance for
adverse aviation conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Tonight and Tuesday/...
As of 340 PM Monday...Winds at late afternoon are SW 10-15 knots
with a few higher gusts with seas 2-4 feet north and 3-5 feet
central and southern waters. Based on trends, have cancelled all
SCA's for area waters. Winds should generally be SW/W overnight
and Tuesday with seas dropping back to 2-4 feet for most areas
Tuesday as weak ridging builds over area waters.

Long Term /Tuesday Night through Saturday/...
As of 400 PM Mon...A period of variable wind directions is
expected Tuesday night and Wednesday, then southerly winds
should prevail through much of the rest of the forecast period
with seas around 2 feet.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-199-204-205.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...RTE
AVIATION...RTE/CTC
MARINE...RTE/CTC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
441 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198-140845-
Martin-Pitt-Washington-Tyrrell-Mainland Dare-Greene-Beaufort-
Mainland Hyde-Duplin-Lenoir-Jones-Pamlico-Northern Craven-
Southern Craven-Inland Onslow-
441 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast across Eastern North
Carolina on Monday, and there is a Marginal risk of severe weather.
A few storms could produce damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ195-196-199-204-205-140845-
West Carteret-East Carteret-Coastal Onslow-Ocracoke Island-
Hatteras Island-
441 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast across Eastern North
Carolina on Monday, and there is a Marginal risk of severe weather.
A few storms could produce damaging wind gusts.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ203-140845-
Northern Outer Banks-
441 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast across Eastern North
Carolina on Monday, and there is a Marginal risk of severe weather.
A few storms could produce damaging wind gusts.

   Moderate Rip Current Risk.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
247 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

NCZ090>092-198-131930-
Jones-Lenoir-Inland Onslow-Duplin-
247 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN JONES...
SOUTHWESTERN LENOIR AND NORTHEASTERN DUPLIN COUNTIES...

At 246 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered near Kornegay, or
17 miles east of Warsaw, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Phillips Crossroads, Kornegay, Beulaville, Deep Run, Pleasant Hill,
Potters Hill and Albertson.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3502 7801 3517 7786 3518 7783 3520 7783
      3529 7774 3506 7738 3488 7778
TIME...MOT...LOC 1846Z 236DEG 11KT 3503 7778

Simms

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
318 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0314 PM     HAIL             3 SSE ASKIN             35.18N 77.05W
07/13/2020  E0.70 INCH       CRAVEN             NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER CALLED TO REPORT DIME SIZE HAIL 2
            MILES N FROM NEWBERN ON HWY 17.

&&

TS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
340 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

NCZ198-132015-
Inland Onslow-
340 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL ONSLOW COUNTY...

At 339 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Catherine Lake,
or near New River Station, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Jacksonville, New River Station, Half Moon, Pumpkin Center, Piney
Green, Kellum and Midway Park.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3464 7765 3473 7768 3492 7739 3491 7737
      3493 7736 3494 7733 3493 7727 3490 7725
      3489 7723 3489 7722 3484 7720 3483 7718
      3481 7720 3480 7717 3479 7718 3460 7762
TIME...MOT...LOC 1939Z 237DEG 13KT 3474 7754

mlee

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
343 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

NCZ090-091-132015-
Lenoir-Duplin-
343 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN LENOIR AND
NORTHWESTERN DUPLIN COUNTIES...

At 343 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Mount Olive,
moving northeast at 5 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
La Grange, Mount Olive, Beautancus, Faison and Calypso.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3519 7816 3518 7808 3519 7805 3519 7802
      3518 7798 3517 7797 3517 7793 3515 7789
      3516 7789 3518 7784 3534 7782 3537 7775
      3512 7774 3507 7816 3509 7817
TIME...MOT...LOC 1943Z 234DEG 6KT 3518 7805

mlee

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
357 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

NCZ094-194>196-132030-
West Carteret-East Carteret-Pamlico-Southern Craven-
357 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN CRAVEN...CENTRAL
CARTERET AND SOUTH CENTRAL PAMLICO COUNTIES...

At 357 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Havelock,
moving east at 15 mph.

Locations impacted include...
Havelock, Merrimon, Harlowe, Great Neck, Janeiro, North Harlowe and
Cherry Branch Ferry Terminal.

LAT...LON 3481 7702 3493 7707 3504 7664 3482 7659
TIME...MOT...LOC 1957Z 255DEG 15KT 3490 7689

11

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>