Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
347 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
An inland surface trough strengthens Tuesday, while high
pressure extends over the area from the Western Atlantic.
Another upper level trough digs into the region mid- to- late
week for another round of unsettled weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 330 PM Mon... The latest radar is showing showers and
thunderstorms to fired up across ENC this afternoon in a
combination of the shortwave interacting with the sea breeze.
daytime heating is at it's peak with CAPE values are ranging
btw 4000 to 5000 J/kg, lift index AOA -7C along with steep
lapse rates and high DCAPE values. SPC continues to have our NE
section of our CWA in a MGRL Risk for strong to severe
thunderstorms as the shortwave pivots northeast later this
afternoon. The main threat is still severe hail, damaging
winds and/or wet microburst.

Tonight all the showers and thunderstorms will dissipate with
the lack of daytime heating, but may shower may linger across
the NE counties and OBX during the evening. Otherwise, dry
weather during the overnight hours with high clouds to move
through after midnight. Expect a warm and muggy night with
overnight lows in the 70s across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
As of 330 PM Mon...The inland trough strengthen, while sfc high
pressure extends from the western Atlantic into ENC. The day
will start out sunny with temperatures quickly rising into the
lower 90s--like today. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to fire up mid to late afternoon along the sea breeze.
Models are suggesting a weak shortwave to move through late
afternoon into early evening...leading for showers and
thunderstorms to continue into the night. Overall coverage is
expected to be limited compared to today.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 AM Mon...A very summerlike pattern continues through
the weekend, with the most active days being Wednesday and
Thursday, followed by relatively drier conditions Friday through
the weekend.

Wednesday and Thursday...Upper level troughing develops over
the eastern US as eastern NC remains between surface troughing
inland and high pressure off the coast. Generally expect a
diurnal trend in precip, but deeper moisture transport and the
destabilization from falling heights aloft will bring above
climo thunderstorms chances, with storms likely for most
Wednesday afternoon, and only slightly less coverage Thursday
afternoon. Additionally, guidance indication of a potential
shortwave aloft passing nearby later Wednesday justifies keeping
thunder chances in the forecast across the area overnight
Wednesday. Temps will be near normal both days, with local
variability owing primarily to precip trends/coverage.

Friday through the weekend...Upper trough axis shifts east of the
area early Friday, bringing broad upper subsidence and below-
climo POPs, with ample sunshine Friday through the weekend.
Temps very near normal Friday, warming a degree or two each
successive day through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term /through Tuesday Morning/...
As of 140 PM Mon...High confidence in VFR conditions through most of
the TAF period. A few to sct showers and thunderstorms are
developing as the mid-level shortwave is making it's way eastward
and interacting with the sea breeze. Most of the storms are
developing east of the coastal plain sites (PGV/ISO/OAJ), but still
added the mention of VCTS in case if additional storms develop west
of the area. Storms produce hvy rain and gusty winds which can lead
to sub- VFR for EWN. Showers and thunderstorms is expected to
diminish with the lack of daytime heating...leading to mostly clear
skies with light SSW breeze to inhibit fog formation. VFR conditions
will continue tomorrow with mid to high clouds to increase in
coverage from west to east with SW winds 5-10 knots to continue.

Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 330 AM Mon...VFR conditions prevail through the period,
with only the potential for early morning fog/stratus and
afternoon thunderstorms bringing any significant potential for
flight restrictions each day.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Tuesday/...
As of 330 PM Mon...The latest buoy obs are showing S/SW 10-15
knots and seas 1-2 ft. SW winds 10-15 kts will continue
overnight with occasional gust up to 20 knots due to the tight
gradient. The NWPS is running a little higher compared to the
buoy obs, so used a combinations of NWPS, WW3, and NBM. Expect
seas to be 1-2 ft building up to 3-4 ft overnight. The wind
gradient will tighten a bit more, than today as the inland
trough strengths, while the waters are under the influence of
the sfc high pressure extending from the western Atlantic. SW
winds will remain 10-15 knot increasing in the afternoon to
15-20 knots. Seas are expected to build from 3-4 ft to 4-5 ft
by late afternoon.

Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 330 AM Mon...High pressure well offshore and inland
troughing will persist through the long term period. Moderate
SW winds resume Wednesday, typically a few kts stronger each
afternoon than overnight. Expect 3-5 ft seas to prevail in
mainly SSW windswell, with a small secondary longer period swell
from stronger trade winds on the southern periphery of the
Bermuda High arriving from the SW as well.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...BM
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...BM/CB
MARINE...BM/CB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
401 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020

NCZ029-044-079-090-091-204-205-232015-
Martin-Pitt-Greene-Duplin-Lenoir-Ocracoke Island-Hatteras Island-
401 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ045>047-080-081-092-094-193>196-198-199-203-232015-
Washington-Tyrrell-Mainland Dare-Beaufort-Mainland Hyde-Jones-
Pamlico-Northern Craven-Southern Craven-West Carteret-East Carteret-
Inland Onslow-Coastal Onslow-Northern Outer Banks-
401 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight.

A few isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening, with damaging wind gusts and hail are the main threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
157 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020

NCZ092-194-198-221830-
Jones-Inland Onslow-Southern Craven-
157 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN JONES...
SOUTHEASTERN CRAVEN AND NORTHEASTERN ONSLOW COUNTIES...

At 156 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Maysville, or
12 miles northeast of Pumpkin Center, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
New Bern, Havelock, James City, Trent Woods, Maysville, Belgrade and
Croatan.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3477 7727 3500 7737 3511 7699 3506 7694
      3505 7695 3504 7694 3505 7694 3504 7693
      3503 7693 3503 7692 3493 7684
TIME...MOT...LOC 1756Z 243DEG 23KT 3493 7725

Heden

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
211 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020

NCZ092-194-195-198-199-221845-
Coastal Onslow-West Carteret-Jones-Inland Onslow-Southern Craven-
211 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN JONES...SOUTH
CENTRAL CRAVEN...EAST CENTRAL ONSLOW AND SOUTHWESTERN CARTERET
COUNTIES...

At 211 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Silverdale, or
near Piney Green, moving east at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Jacksonville, Pumpkin Center, Piney Green, Camp Lejeune Center,
Stella, Swansboro and Hubert.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3482 7742 3492 7695 3462 7694 3458 7746
TIME...MOT...LOC 1811Z 258DEG 17KT 3479 7723

Heden

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