Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
159 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will push north through the region early this
morning, followed by a weak cold front later in the morning.
Another stronger cold front will cross the area tomorrow. A
stronger cold front will cross the area Monday morning with high
pressure building in behind it. A strong cold front will impact
the region mid to late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 10 PM Sun...Impressive shortwave trough continues to
pivot into the TN/OH valleys this evening. The associated warm
front is pushing northward slowly, currently settled around Cape
Fear and spread NEwrd nearly paralleling our southern coast up
to Cape Hatteras. This boundary is expected to push N over our
CWA and priming the atmosphere for decent instability overnight.

A dry line (well defined by Td gradient) will be approaching
from the west but the best upper level support and omega will be
displaced north and west towards the Triad. However, an upper
level dry slot will be nosing into the region overnight
depriving the region of deep moisture, though forecast soundings
are beginning to show a weaker dry slot overnight and PWAT
values over 1 inch, but uncertainty still remains regarding how
much impact this will have on convective development.

Latest 00Z hi res CAM runs hold onto a line of convection firing
overnight, beginning shortly after 06Z. MLCAPE values across a
variety of hi res models maintain a range of 1500-2500 J/kg with
ample with mid- level lapse rates up to 7 C/km. With low LCL
heights, up to 40 kt of 0-1km shear, 60+ kt of 0-6 km shear, and
consistently curved hodographs, tornadoes continue to be a
concern overnight. The 00Z HRRR shows SC values above 10 and STP
values nearing 5 for much of the southern CWA. It is notable
the 00Z HRRR also showed a decent line of discrete cells
covering our southern coast and infiltrating as far inland as
the coastal plains, essentially covering the entire CWA. While
the greatest severe potential remains along the southern coast,
it is worth emphasizing the entire CWA has a conditionally
sufficient atmosphere conducive for severe weather.

To reemphasize, this threat is highly conditional on a
sufficient lifting mechanism being present and drier air aloft
not depriving the environment of necessary moisture. If storms
do fire, the highest threat window is between 06-12z overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
As of 1000 PM Sat...No changes to prev disc.

Prev disc...The boundary/front will sweep offshore pushing any
potential convection well off the coast with dew points falling
quickly during the day and skies clearing. Despite increasing
CAA late as the upper low lifts north, low- level thicknesses
remain high at around 1385-1390 m along with gusty southwesterly
flow. Thus it should be another warm day with highs climbing
into the upper 70s to potentially a few 80s closer to the coast.
The atmosphere will be well mixed up to 850 mb with winds there
of 30-40 kt, so some gusts to 20-25 kt are likely especially
across the coastal plain.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 315 AM Sat...Mainly dry conditions early next week before
the next frontal system impacts the area Wednesday night
through Thursday.

Sunday night and Monday...The low will move off the Northeast
coast Monday morning, bringing a stronger cold front Monday
morning. While there is some modest pre- frontal moisture
convergence, persistent dry air aloft is expected to win-out,
making precip unlikely. Increased cloud cover associated with
the frontal passage and better CAA behind this front will limit
highs Monday to the mid- 60s to near 70.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Ridging aloft builds overhead
Tuesday and Tuesday night, keep a dry forecast in place. Surface
high pressure passes south of the area during this time,
settling offshore Wednesday as moisture advection begins to
increase. Tuesday will be seasonable, with Wednesday a few
degrees warmer.

Wednesday Night through Friday...The next cold front, associated
with stacked low pressure that will lift from the Midwest across the
Northeast through the second half of the week, will impact the area
Wednesday night and Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
with this system, with strong low level wind shear thanks to a pre-
frontal LLJ bringing the potential for organized convection. The
severe weather threat will be refined in subsequent forecast
updates.

The cold front is expected to cross the area sometime Thursday into
Thursday night, with high pressure builds back in Friday, bringing a
return to settled weather.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term /through 06z Monday/...
As of 130 AM Sun...A weak wave of surface low pressure moving
across central North Carolina early this morning, advecting
moisture over a very shallow surface layer and bringing
widespread IFR to LIFR, which is occasionally building to the
surface as fog. MVFR will become more prevalent through the
next several hours as a warm front lifts north across the area
and WAA increases the depth of the mixed layer. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will cross the area through the early
morning hours, with gusty winds and hail possible in the
strongest storms.

A weak cold front will cross the terminals around dawn bringing
an end to precip chances and ceiling restrictions. Gusty
southwest winds are on tap for Sunday, with clearing skies
through the day.

Long Term /Sunday night through Wednesday/...
As of 320 AM Sat...VFR conditions prevail Sunday night. A cold
front crossing the area Monday morning could bring some low
cloud, but the potential for flight restrictions is uncertain.
VFR returns later Monday and prevail through midweek.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Tonight and Sunday/...
As of 350 PM Sat...Latest local obs and buoys show seas have
finally dropped to around 4-5 feet across the waters today in
northeast to easterly flow of 10-15 kt. Winds will veer
southerly overnight becoming southwesterly by daybreak Sunday as
a warm front advances north across the waters. Winds increase
back to 20-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, and seas respond in
turn reaching a peak of 7-9 feet by late Sunday. New SCAs have
been issued starting overnight and extending well into Monday as
seas slowly subside.

Long Term /Sunday night through Wednesday/...
As of 330 AM Sat...Low pressure crossing the Mid-Atlantic will
keep breezy southwesterly winds in place Sunday night. Elevated
seas of 5-8+ ft in mainly southerly windswell will occur during
this times, and SCAs will be need for most of the marine area.
A cold front will cross the waters Monday, with a brief
northwesterly surge behind it. Light winds then prevail Tuesday
as high pressure passes south of the area, allowing seas to
gradually subside, and bringing the best period for marine
weather through the long term period. Southwesterly flow and
windswell increases again Wednesday ahead of the next cold
front.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ195-196-
     199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 4 AM EDT
     Monday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Monday for AMZ156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT
     Monday for AMZ150.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...ML
SHORT TERM...ML
LONG TERM...RF/CB
AVIATION...CB
MARINE...CB/MS

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
240 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2020

NCZ090-198-260715-
Inland Onslow-Duplin-
240 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN ONSLOW AND
SOUTHEASTERN DUPLIN COUNTIES...

At 240 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Willard, or
near Wallace, moving northeast at 50 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Jacksonville, Wallace, Beulaville, Cypress Creek, Catherine Lake,
Chinquapin and Albert J Ellis Airport.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3476 7806 3498 7768 3478 7743 3468 7766
      3472 7768 3472 7794 3471 7798 3473 7801
      3473 7803
TIME...MOT...LOC 0640Z 235DEG 43KT 3470 7789

8

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
249 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2020

NCZ092-194-195-198-199-260715-
Coastal Onslow-West Carteret-Jones-Inland Onslow-Southern Craven-
249 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN JONES...SOUTH
CENTRAL CRAVEN...SOUTHEASTERN ONSLOW AND SOUTHWESTERN CARTERET
COUNTIES...

At 249 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Onslow Beach,
or near Camp Lejeune Center, moving northeast at 50 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Jacksonville, Piney Green, Camp Lejeune Center, Stella, Swansboro,
Hubert and Cape Carteret.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3464 7753 3491 7708 3466 7686 3444 7736
TIME...MOT...LOC 0649Z 237DEG 43KT 3460 7732

8