Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
916 PM EST Sat Jan 11 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
An unsettled pattern is expected tonight through mid week as
cold front approaches tonight and stalls near or over the area
through mid next week. Temperatures return to near normal by
late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 910 PM Sat...Main convective band is in wrn Carolinas.
High res mdls all show weakening of this band as it approaches
late tonight. Shra lifting NNE ahead of band shld increase
overnight so will maintain increasing pop trend but may be a bit
high per mdl trends. Most mdls keep some instab across region
thru the night and with good shear in place a cpl stronger
storms cant be ruled out...mainly quite late.

Prev disc...A strengthening surface low will lift NE through
the TN/OH valley and into the Great Lakes tonight as associated
cold front pushes into the Carolinas. The pressure gradient will
strengthen overnight, and strong srly flow will advect an
extremely warm and moist airmass into the region. PWATs (around
>1.6") and TD's some 2 SD or higher above climo, will translate
to overnight lows well into the 60s. Southerly gradient wind
gusts of 25-35 mph are expected overnight. Isolated showers late
today will become scattered inland late this evening. SPC
continues to outlook the NC coastal plain in a
*Marginal* risk for svr tstms. Most CAMs show a weakening line
of showers and embedded storms moving into the the forecast area
after 06z. Instability will be the limiting factor, though
still modest for this time of year (MU CAPE up to 750 j/kg),
with plenty of shear (0-6 km around 50 kt). An isolated strong
storm with gusty winds will be possible, but not expecting
widespread svr storms overnight. Will continue likely pops for
most areas, with widespread showers expected after midnight.

Brisk southerly flow and cloudy skies will result in very mild
lows in the mid to upper 60s overnight. Some guidance is hinting
at sea fog developing tonight. It's possible but confidence is
low, and think increasing winds will limit development, despite
increasing dewpoints, etc. Think better chances for sea fog will
be Sunday night with lighter winds, dewpoints still in the 60s
and recent rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
As of 225 PM Sat...The best chance for rain will be in the
morning then expect precipitation to become more scattered in
the afternoon. PoPs will decrease from likely in the early
morning to chance. SPC has northeast NC in a "Marginal" risk for
severe weather, mainly for the remnants of the morning line of
convection moving through the area. An isolated damaging wind
gust will be the main threat. The cold front is forecast to
stall just NW of the area, keeping Eastern NC in a warm
southerly flow. Highs again will be well above normal in the low
to mid 70s and could approach records in some locations. Please
see the Climo section below for more details. Strong winds in
the morning will diminish in the afternoon as the pressure
gradient weakens.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 330 PM Sat...Unsettled weather is expected to continue
through early to mid next week as stationary front lingers just
north of the area. Near record to record highs are possible all
the way through mid week before temps cool back to near climo by
late in the week.

Sunday night through Wednesday...The frontal boundary will
remain to the north of the area stationary through mid week.
Models are showing several weak lows traversing eastward along
said boundary will be focus for increased lift/omega in place
which will produce sct to at times numerous showers, and
therefore retained 40-70% chc pops, highest north nearer the
front. Continued with thunder mention as summerlike regime in
place with highly anomalous TD's in place.

Thursday...Last warm day appears to be Thu as frontal boundary
finally gets shunted offshore as progressive short wave moves
quickly east through the Great Lakes region. Highs expected
65-70 with small pops continuing, as available moisture is in
question still with large spread in ensembles and amongst 11/12Z
global models continuing.

Friday through Saturday...Temps finally cool to near climo with
highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s. Small chc for rain showers
arrives by Sat as next progressive system may begin impacting
the region, though this far out there is much spread in
solutions on timing, so retained only low pops.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term /through Sunday/...
As of 610 PM Sat...VFR init with tempo MVFR will become
predominately MVFR late evening thru rest of period. Best chc of
shra will be late tonight/early Sun along and ahead of
weakening squall line. Over the NW tier guidance shows VFR
returning Sunday. Gusty SSW winds thru the night will diminish
significantly Sunday.

Long Term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 330 PM Sat... Periods of sub-VFR conditions as a cold
front remains stalled just north of the region through mid-
week allowing for showers with some thunderstorms and low cigs
with plentiful moisture in place. Expect gusty winds are
possible on Sunday morning with any stronger storms.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Sunday/...
As of 910 PM Sat...No changes with winds/seas peaking late
tonight and very early Sunday ahead of approaching front. Cont
SCA all wtrs.

Prev disc...SCA's are in effect for all the waters tonight and
Sunday. The tightening gradient between high pressure in the
Atlantic and a slow moving cold front approaching from the west
will result in increasing southerly flow and building seas
through tonight. Conditions will deteriorate through tonight,
with strong winds expected through early Sunday and dangerous
seas expected through the day Sunday. Southerly winds 15-25 kt
late today increase to to 20-30 kt tonight. Could see a brief
period of gale force wind gusts across the outer central waters
near the Gulf Stream late tonight and early Sunday morning. Seas
will build to 6-9 ft this evening and peak at 8-12 ft late
tonight and early Sunday morning. Winds are forecast to diminish
to 10-15 kt Sunday afternoon but seas will remain elevated
though subsiding to 4-7 ft by early evening.

Some guidance is hinting at sea fog developing tonight. It's
possible but confidence is low, and think increasing winds will
limit development, despite increasing dewpoints, etc. Think
better chances for sea fog might be Sunday night with lighter
winds, and dewpoints still in the 60s.

Long Term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 330 PM Sat...Winds diminish by Sun evening and become
light northeasterly for northern half of the marine domain.
Better chances for sea fog development with the lighter winds.
Elevated seas will linger through mid week. Sea fog may be
present at times through mid week as warm and moist swrly flow
advects over the cooler shelf waters.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High temps for 01/12 (Sunday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern       76/2013  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras  71/1995  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville     79/2005  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City  72/2005  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston        79/1907  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville   77/2013  (KNCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for AMZ131-136-137-
     230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Sunday for AMZ150.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RF/JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RF/TL
MARINE...RF/JME/TL
CLIMATE...MHX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1129 PM EST Sat Jan 11 2020

NCZ029-044-079-130430-
Martin-Pitt-Greene-
1129 PM EST Sat Jan 11 2020

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 20 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Southerly wind gusts 25 to 35 mph expected tonight. An isolated
strong storm with gusty winds will be possible tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds will be
possible Sunday, especially in the morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ045>047-080-081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205-130430-
Washington-Tyrrell-Mainland Dare-Beaufort-Mainland Hyde-Duplin-
Lenoir-Jones-Pamlico-Northern Craven-Southern Craven-West Carteret-
East Carteret-Inland Onslow-Coastal Onslow-Northern Outer Banks-
Ocracoke Island-Hatteras Island-
1129 PM EST Sat Jan 11 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Southerly wind gusts 25 to 35 mph expected tonight. An isolated
strong storm with gusty winds will be possible tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds will be
possible Sunday, especially in the morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.