Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
908 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will remain stalled near the coast with several
waves of low pressure moving along the front through Thursday.
High pressure builds back into the area this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 830 PM Tues...Surface low pressure is now east of Cape
Fear, with deep moisture advection continuing across eastern
North Carolina. Mainly moderate rainfall on radar this evening,
with areas of heaviest rainfall focused along the coast where an
inverted trough axis and greater instability offshore is
providing for more convective elements and higher rainfall
rates. Primary changes to the forecast for the evening update
were to account for hourly precip trends and increase winds
along the coast.

Previous Discussion...Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for
all CWA counties along and east of US Hwy 17. An additional 1
to 4 inches of rainfall are possible with locally higher
amounts, especially along the coastal areas.

Previous Discussion...Hi-res guidance shows pockets of heavy
showers enveloping eastern NC into the evening. SPC
mesoanalysis shows a wide area of strong deep moisture
convergence along our southern counties south into Onslow Bay.
RAP analysis also shows a broad area of 35-45 kts of 0-6km bulk
shear across the CWA overlapped by an area of 500-1500 J/kg of
CAPE west of Hwy 17. As a result, storms are expected to
continue developing over Onslow Bay and the Gulf Stream and move
NNE ashore. With marginal severe parameters in place, any
strong to severe storms that form offshore could maintain
strength moving inland. The possibility for waterspouts
continues with the risk of a few moving ashore. The bulk of the
heavy rain and thunderstorms will begin lifting north over the
northern OBX and NE counties as the upper low lifts NW towards
central NC with the sfc low following suit.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 415 PM Tuesday...Upper-level low crawls across central NC
during the day on Wednesday with low-level flow turning
southerly. A bulk of the precip will stay towards our northern
tier into VA, but scattered showers and storms will be possible
during the day. Latest HRRR guidance shows MLCAPE values around
1500-2000 J/kg during the day, providing ample fuel for storms.
Hi-res guidance disagrees on storm coverage, but overall, expect
scattered showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday. Daytime
heating will be more efficient tomorrow with partly sunny skies
across the SE portions of the CWA, which may promote convective
activity. Along with Srly flow, we can expect high temps to
move closer to 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 255 PM Tue...Unsettled weather will continue across
Eastern NC through late week. Lingering stationary front along
with a stacked low will continue to produce scattered to
numerous mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms through
Friday. We should finally begin to dry out some over the weekend
into early next week, with a return to warm and humid
conditions.

Wednesday night through Thursday...Low continues to become
vertically stacked across the Carolinas, slowly weakening and
lifting northward Wed night and Thu. Rainfall should taper off
Wed night and Thu will still have the potential to be locally
heavy but coverage should be less, as the upper/surface lows
begin to weaken and lift north. The precipitation then becomes
more tied to diurnal cycle.

Friday through Tuesday...The upper low weakens late in the
week, however upper troughing will continue along the eastern
seaboard which will continue to allow for a decent coverage of
showers and thunderstorms, especially inland during peak heating
when instability is maximized. The upper trough axis slowly
shifts eastward through the period and coverage of storms
expected to gradually diminish each day. Temps will also be on
a warming trend with above normal temps returning by the weekend
with highs potentially in the lower 90s inland locations
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term /Through Wednesday/...
As of 730 PM Tuesday...Low pressure off Cape Fear will lift
across the area tonight into Tuesday, bringing deep moisture
convection and widespread flight restrictions. IFR will
generally prevail through the morning, though brief improvement
is possible, depending on how precip coverage trends. Then, by
mid to late morning, ceilings will begin to improve, first to
MVFR, then potentially VFR by afternoon. Visibility
restrictions will be limited to those resulting from pockets to
rainfall, which could be heavy, brining IFR visibilities at
times, especially this evening and overnight.

Long Term /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...
As of 150 PM Tuesday...Sub-VFR conditions possible into
Thursday, with scattered to scattered showers and tstms.
Conditions then expected to improve to VFR by Thurs night.
Coverage of storms expected diminish late in the week as the
upper low lifts north of the area, however an upper trough will
remain over the area with shower and thunderstorm chances
continuing, especially during peak heating each afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Wednesday/...
As of 8 PM Tuesday...Gusty northeast winds funneling down the
mouth of the Neuse River necessitates the addition of the Neuse
to the SCAs.

Previous Discussion...Small Craft Advisories remain in effect
for most area waterways as low pressure lifting toward the area
have NE winds 20-30 kt persisting. Seas will be 4-6 ft for the
southern waters with 5-7 ft waves in the central and northern
waters through the night.

Winds will begin to subside tomorrow morning and gradually shift SE
during the day. Expect 4-6 ft waves along the central and
northern waters calming to 3-5 ft by Wed night.

Long Term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 255 PM Tue...An weak area of low pressure will lift north
of the region Wednesday night into Thursday, then the waters
will be under the influence of Atlantic high pressure and a lee
trough with decent boating conditions expected during this
period. The flow will mainly be S/SW 5-15 kt through Sunday with
the strongest winds in the afternoons and evenings with seas
2-4 ft, highest during the periods of stronger flow.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record rainfall amounts for 6/16 (Tuesday)

LOCATION       RAINFALL/YEAR
New Bern       2.51/2010 (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras  2.46/1893 (KHSE ASOS)
Morehead City  3.55/1965 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for NCZ045>047-080-
     081-092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205.
     Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday evening for NCZ196-
     203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ131-135-
     137-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ150-152-
     154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ156-158.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...ML
SHORT TERM...CB/ML
LONG TERM...JME/CQD
AVIATION...DAG/CB
MARINE...JME/ML
CLIMATE...MHX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
800 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2020

NCZ029-044-079-090-091-180000-
Martin-Pitt-Greene-Duplin-Lenoir-
800 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Locally heavy rain at times will be possible through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected through Thursday.
These showers and storms will be slow moving with heavy downpours,
and may move repeatedly over the same areas. Several inches of rain
will be possible during this period resulting in a threat for flash
flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ196-203>205-180000-
East Carteret-Northern Outer Banks-Ocracoke Island-Hatteras Island-
800 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING NORTH
OF CAPE LOOKOUT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.
   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.
   Flash Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ195-199-180000-
West Carteret-Coastal Onslow-
800 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2020

......MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY SOUTH OF
CAPE LOOKOUT..
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ045>047-080-081-092-094-193-194-198-180000-
Washington-Tyrrell-Mainland Dare-Beaufort-Mainland Hyde-Jones-
Pamlico-Northern Craven-Southern Craven-Inland Onslow-
800 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.