Beach Hazards Statement 25, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1128 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper-level troughing over the Midwest and Northeast will
persist, providing unsettled weather through Thursday night.
Deep layer ridging strengthens Friday, keeping drier conditions
in place into the weekend. Broad upper low moving over the
Northeast then brings a return to a more active pattern Sunday
through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 925 AM Wednesday...Areas of low stratus continue near the
coast, but are thinning out inland at mid-morning. Clouds should
gradually dissipate near the coast by late morning. Showers are
well offshore in the Gulf Stream with land areas dry. With deep
westerly flow and weak ridging, expect convective coverage to
be a bit limited this afternoon. Instability will be limited,
except for an area of high CAPE values near the coast during the
late afternoon and early evening hours. The latest HRRR does
show a few thunderstorms developing near the coast after about
20z or so. Will continue with slight chance PoPs for the
afternoon with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s area-
wide. Any storms that do form could produce brief gusty winds,
heavy downpours and frequent lightning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
As of 340 AM Wed...The shortwave axis will push further NE into
our CWA and set up decent moisture advection into the region,
increasing POPs during the evening and into the overnight. A few
storms may be on the stronger side early on, but will taper off
with fading daytime heating. Forecasted severe parameters
remain low at the moment, thus model outputs suggest mostly
stratiform rain with a few isolated thunderstorms possible. Lows
tonight will be around 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 3 AM Wed...Bermuda High ridging in from the east and
inland troughing will persist through the long term period,
bringing generally seasonable conditions with day to day
variability dependent mainly on upper level synoptic trends.

Thursday...Broad troughing will be strongest Thursday, with the
potential for a shortwave to pass overhead and off the coast in
the morning or midday. Showers my be ongoing at daybreak, and
how long these showers linger and their coverage will determine
the convective threat in the afternoon. If drier conditions
emerge by mid-to-late morning, ample instability will build as
the warm subtropical airmass persists at the surface, and
scattered to widespread afternoon thunderstorms are possible,
mainly along and inland of the resultant sea breeze. With 30-40
kt westerly flow and DCAPE values over 1000 J/kg, the strongest
storms could produce damaging wind gusts in the later afternoon
into the evening. Convective activity wanes overnight and the
loss of daytime heating, and POPs end once the trough axis
slides offshore and heights aloft begin to rise late.

Friday and Saturday...H5 ridging builds over the area and strong
subsidence aloft keeps precip coverage well below normal.
Though a stray shower or two immediately along the sea breeze
can't be ruled out either day, the chance is below mentionable
levels. Temps near to a couple of degrees above normal both days
with ample sunshine.

Sunday through Tuesday...Upper level low pressure will cut-off
from the background westerlies and drop over the Northeast, with
several weak shortwaves traversing the general troughing that
will extend over the Carolina Coast. Periods of unsettled
weather possible through early next week, with shower/storm
coverage not necessarily sticking to the typical diurnal trends,
depending on the timing of upper level features. Relatively
seasonable airmass prevails at the surface as Bermuda High
continues to ridge in the from east with troughing inland, and
daily temp trends will be primarily dependent on precip timing
and cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term /through Tonight/...
As of 730 AM Wed...An IFR/MVFR stratus deck is smothering much
of the area south of the Tar River this morning, but is
expected to erode by around 13Z. Then, A few thunderstorms are
possible mainly along and just inland of the sea breeze this
afternoon, but coverage is expected to be too low to justify
inclusion of any flight restrictions/adverse weather in the TAF
at this point. Clouds increase this evening and overnight as a
shortwave aloft approaches the area. Sub-VFR ceilings are
possible ahead of this feature, but confidence in coverage is
low, so have kept cloud cover scattered for the end of the TAF
period.

Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 315 AM Tue...VFR conditions prevail, with at least
scattered showers/storms Thursday bringing the potential for
periods of flight restrictions. Friday through the weekend will
be drier with VFR expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Tonight/...
As of 930 AM Wednesday...Trends of high-resolution guidance show
winds trending down through the remainder of the day. Winds
currently Westerly at 10-15 knots with a few higher gusts as of
mid-morning. Seas are 2-3 feet north and 3-5 feet south. Winds
should gradually back to S/SW by later today with seas 3-4 feet.
A few showers and thunderstorms may move through the southern
waters this evening and reach the central and northern waters
overnight.

Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 315 AM Wed...High pressure well offshore and inland
troughing will persist through the long term period bringing
persistent moderate southwesterly flow, typically a few kts
stronger each afternoon than overnight. 3 to 5 ft seas prevail
through the period as moderate SSW windswell mixes with small
medium period SE swell.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ204.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...ML
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...CB/ML
MARINE...CTC/CB/ML

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1127 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2020

NCZ195-196-199-205-251530-
West Carteret-East Carteret-Coastal Onslow-Hatteras Island-
1127 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2020

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Moderate Rip Current Risk.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ204-251530-
Ocracoke Island-
1127 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2020

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.