Alert archive / Oregon / Red Flag Warnings in 2020
Red Flag Warning 26, NWS Medford, OR
NWS Medford, OR issued this red flag warning at Sep 14, 2020, 1:04 PM PDT for Harney County, Klamath County, Lake County, Oregon; Modoc County, Siskiyou County, California. It took effect at Sep 15, 2020, 12:00 PM PDT. It was in force for 8 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 14, 2020, 1:04 PM PDT (20:04 UTC)
- In effect from
- Sep 15, 2020, 12:00 PM PDT
- Expired
- Sep 15, 2020, 8:00 PM PDT
- In force
- 8 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Medford, OR
Counties Modoc County, CA, Siskiyou County, CA, Harney County, OR, Klamath County, OR, Lake County, OR
The nearest sounding before it
Medford/Jackson, OR (KMFR), launched 12:00Z, 8.1 hours before the alert went out and 160 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2100 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 33 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 38 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 196 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
316 WWUS86 KMFR 142004 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Medford OR 104 PM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020 ORZ624-625-150815- /O.UPG.KMFR.FW.A.0023.200915T1900Z-200916T0300Z/ /O.NEW.KMFR.FW.W.0026.200915T1900Z-200916T0300Z/ /O.NEW.KMFR.FW.A.0024.200916T1900Z-200917T0500Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0025.000000T0000Z-200915T0400Z/ Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest- South Central Oregon Desert including the BLM Land in Eastern Lake and Western Harney Counties- 104 PM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 624 AND 625... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 624 AND 625... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 624 AND 625... * Impacts: Gusty wind with low relative humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires. * Affected area: In South Central OR, most of Fire Weather Zones 624 and 625, including the Fremont-Winema National Forest and the Brattain fire. * Wind: South 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. * Humidity: As low as 7 percent. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD && $$ CAZ284-285-150815- /O.UPG.KMFR.FW.A.0023.200915T1900Z-200916T0300Z/ /O.NEW.KMFR.FW.W.0026.200915T1900Z-200916T0300Z/ /O.NEW.KMFR.FW.A.0024.200916T1900Z-200917T0500Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0025.000000T0000Z-200915T0400Z/ Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt Shasta-Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley- 104 PM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 284 AND 285... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 284 AND 285... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 284 AND 285... * Impacts: Gusty wind with low relative humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires. * Affected area: In Northern CA, most of Fire Weather Zones 284 and 285, including portions of Modoc, Klamath, and Shasta-Trinity National Forests. * Wind: South 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. * Humidity: As low as 10 percent. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD && $$ ORZ623-150400- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0025.000000T0000Z-200915T0400Z/ Southern Oregon Cascades- 104 PM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 623... * Impacts: Gusty wind with low relative humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires. * Affected area: In Southwest OR...Southern Fire Weather Zone 623. * Wind: Southwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. * Humidity: As low as 10 percent. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD $$ Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford BPN
6 follow-up statements
151 WWUS86 KMFR 142223 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Medford OR 323 PM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020 CAZ281-150300- /O.EXB.KMFR.FW.W.0025.000000T0000Z-200915T0300Z/ Central Siskiyou County Including Shasta Valley- 323 PM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 281... The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Red Flag Warning...which is in effect until 8 PM PDT this evening. * Impacts: Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires. * Affected area: In Northern CA...Fire Weather Zone 281. This includes southern and eastern portions of the Shasta Valley. * Wind: South 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. * Humidity: 7 to 15 percent. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... Strong winds and low relative humidities will cause fires to spread very rapidly. && $$ ORZ624-625-151030- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0025.000000T0000Z-200915T0400Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0026.200915T1900Z-200916T0300Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.A.0024.200916T1900Z-200917T0500Z/ Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest- South Central Oregon Desert including the BLM Land in Eastern Lake and Western Harney Counties- 323 PM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 624 AND 625... ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 624 AND 625... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 624 AND 625... * Impacts: Gusty wind with low relative humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires. * Affected area: In South Central OR, most of Fire Weather Zones 624 and 625, including the Fremont-Winema National Forest and the Brattain fire. * Wind: South 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. * Humidity: As low as 7 percent. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD $$ CAZ284-285-151030- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0025.000000T0000Z-200915T0400Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0026.200915T1900Z-200916T0300Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.A.0024.200916T1900Z-200917T0500Z/ Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt Shasta-Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley- 323 PM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 284 AND 285... ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 284 AND 285... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 284 AND 285... * Impacts: Gusty wind with low relative humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires. * Affected area: In Northern CA, most of Fire Weather Zones 284 and 285, including portions of Modoc, Klamath, and Shasta-Trinity National Forests. * Wind: South 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. * Humidity: As low as 10 percent. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD $$ ORZ623-150400- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0025.000000T0000Z-200915T0400Z/ Southern Oregon Cascades- 323 PM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 623... * Impacts: Gusty wind with low relative humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires. * Affected area: In Southwest OR...Southern Fire Weather Zone 623. * Wind: Southwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. * Humidity: As low as 10 percent. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD $$ Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford
249 WWUS86 KMFR 150349 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Medford OR 849 PM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020 ORZ624-625-151600- /O.EXP.KMFR.FW.W.0025.000000T0000Z-200915T0400Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0026.200915T1900Z-200916T0300Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.A.0024.200916T1900Z-200917T0500Z/ Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest- South Central Oregon Desert including the BLM Land in Eastern Lake and Western Harney Counties- 849 PM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 624 AND 625... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 624 AND 625... ...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 624 AND 625... * Impacts: Gusty wind with low relative humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires. * Affected area: In South Central OR, most of Fire Weather Zones 624 and 625, including the Fremont-Winema National Forest and the Brattain fire. * Wind: South 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. * Humidity: As low as 7 percent. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD $$ CAZ284-285-151600- /O.EXP.KMFR.FW.W.0025.000000T0000Z-200915T0400Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0026.200915T1900Z-200916T0300Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.A.0024.200916T1900Z-200917T0500Z/ Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt Shasta-Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley- 849 PM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 284 AND 285... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 284 AND 285... ...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 284 AND 285... * Impacts: Gusty wind with low relative humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires. * Affected area: In Northern CA, most of Fire Weather Zones 284 and 285, including portions of Modoc, Klamath, and Shasta-Trinity National Forests. * Wind: South 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. * Humidity: As low as 10 percent. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD $$ ORZ623-150500- /O.EXP.KMFR.FW.W.0025.000000T0000Z-200915T0400Z/ Southern Oregon Cascades- 849 PM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 623... Humidities this evening are starting to rise some and winds have begun to lower in many areas. $$ Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford
173 WWUS86 KMFR 151043 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Medford OR 343 AM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020 CAZ284-285-ORZ624-625-152300- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0026.200915T1900Z-200916T0300Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.A.0024.200916T1900Z-200917T0500Z/ Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt Shasta-Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley- Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest- South Central Oregon Desert including the BLM Land in Eastern Lake and Western Harney Counties- 343 AM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 284...285...624 AND 625... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 284...285...624 AND 625... * Impacts: Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires. * Affected area: In South Central OR, most of Fire Weather Zones 624 and 625, including the Fremont-Winema National Forest and the Brattain fire. In Northern CA, most of Fire Weather Zones 284 and 285, including portions of Modoc, Klamath, and Shasta-Trinity National Forests. * Wind: In Oregon: South 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. In California: 20 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph. * Humidity: As low as 7 percent. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD $$ Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford
178 WWUS86 KMFR 152139 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Medford OR 239 PM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020 CAZ285-ORZ624-625-160945- /O.UPG.KMFR.FW.A.0024.200916T1900Z-200917T0500Z/ /O.NEW.KMFR.FW.W.0027.200916T2000Z-200917T0300Z/ /O.NEW.KMFR.FW.A.0025.200917T2100Z-200918T0400Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0026.000000T0000Z-200916T0300Z/ Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley- Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest- South Central Oregon Desert including the BLM Land in Eastern Lake and Western Harney Counties- 239 PM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING AND 1 PM TO 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 285... 624 AND 625... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 285...624 AND 625... * Impacts: Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires. * Affected area: In California... Fire Weather Zone 285. In South Central OR... The south eastern portion of FWZ 624. The southern portion of Fire Weather Zone 625... including the Brattain Fire. * Wind: South 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. * Humidity: As low as 7 percent. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD && $$ CAZ284-160945- /O.UPG.KMFR.FW.A.0024.200916T1900Z-200917T0500Z/ /O.NEW.KMFR.FW.W.0027.200916T2000Z-200917T0300Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0026.000000T0000Z-200916T0300Z/ Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt Shasta- 239 PM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING AND 1 PM TO 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 284... * Impacts: Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires. * Affected area: In Northern CA...Fire Weather Zone 284. * Wind: South 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. * Humidity: As low as 10 percent. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD && $$ Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford
153 WWUS86 KMFR 152254 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Medford OR 354 PM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020 CAZ281-160300- /O.EXA.KMFR.FW.W.0026.000000T0000Z-200916T0300Z/ Central Siskiyou County Including Shasta Valley- 354 PM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 281... The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Red Flag Warning...which is in effect until 8 PM PDT this evening. * Impacts: Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires. * Affected area: Fire Weather Zone 281 including the cities of Yreka, Montague, Grenada, Gazelle, and Weed. * Wind: South 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. * Humidity: As low as 8 percent. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... Strong winds and low relative humidities will cause fires to spread very rapidly. && $$ CAZ285-ORZ624-625-161100- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0026.000000T0000Z-200916T0300Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0027.200916T2000Z-200917T0300Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.A.0025.200917T2100Z-200918T0400Z/ Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley- Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest- South Central Oregon Desert including the BLM Land in Eastern Lake and Western Harney Counties- 354 PM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 285... 624 AND 625... ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 285...624 AND 625... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 285...624 AND 625... * Impacts: Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires. * Affected area: In California... Fire Weather Zone 285. In South Central OR... The south eastern portion of FWZ 624. The southern portion of Fire Weather Zone 625... including the Brattain Fire. * Wind: South 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. * Humidity: As low as 7 percent. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD $$ CAZ284-161100- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0026.000000T0000Z-200916T0300Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0027.200916T2000Z-200917T0300Z/ Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt Shasta- 354 PM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 284... ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 284... * Impacts: Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires. * Affected area: In Northern CA...Fire Weather Zone 284. * Wind: South 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. * Humidity: As low as 10 percent. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD $$ Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford
318 WWUS86 KMFR 160318 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Medford OR 818 PM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020 CAZ285-ORZ624-625-161530- /O.EXP.KMFR.FW.W.0026.000000T0000Z-200916T0300Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0027.200916T2000Z-200917T0300Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.A.0025.200917T2100Z-200918T0400Z/ Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley- Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest- South Central Oregon Desert including the BLM Land in Eastern Lake and Western Harney Counties- 818 PM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 285...624 AND 625... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 285...624 AND 625... ...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 285...624 AND 625... * Impacts: Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires. * Affected area: In California... Fire Weather Zone 285. In South Central OR... The south eastern portion of FWZ 624. The southern portion of Fire Weather Zone 625... including the Brattain Fire. * Wind: South 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. * Humidity: As low as 7 percent. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... Strong winds and low relative humidities will cause fires to spread very rapidly. A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings. && $$ CAZ284-161530- /O.EXP.KMFR.FW.W.0026.000000T0000Z-200916T0300Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0027.200916T2000Z-200917T0300Z/ Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt Shasta- 818 PM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 284... ...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 284... * Impacts: Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires. * Affected area: In Northern CA...Fire Weather Zone 284. * Wind: South 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. * Humidity: As low as 10 percent. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... Strong winds and low relative humidities will cause fires to spread very rapidly. && $$ CAZ281-160430- /O.EXP.KMFR.FW.W.0026.000000T0000Z-200916T0300Z/ Central Siskiyou County Including Shasta Valley- 818 PM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 281... Winds and RH may reach criteria Wednesday in the southern end of the Shasta valley near Weed, but winds are not expected to be sustained for more than three hours. $$ Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this red flag warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before this red flag warning went out at Sep 14, 9:22 AM PDT, 3 hours 42 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Sep 14, 9:22 AM PDT, 3 hours 42 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
922 AM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020
.DISCUSSION...The latest satellite image shows a cold front
offshore and varying amounts of high and mid level clouds moving
over the area. Meanwhile areas of smoke remains locked in,
especially in the interior west side valley locations and will
probably remain the case for the rest of the day. The reason for
this is were in an inversion which does not allow the smoke near
the surface to mix out and thus remains trapped near and at the
ground.
The above mentioned cold front will fizzle out as it moves closer
to the coast early this evening, so there may not be much, if
anything left of it by the time it reaches the coast. No changes
are needed to the forecast for this morning. -Petrucelli
&&
.AVIATION...For the 14/12Z TAFs...Wildfire smoke will be the main
impact during the TAF period. This will limit visibilities across
much of the area with areas of IFR/LIFR. Partial improvement can be
expected this afternoon. Also of concern are gusty winds that will
develop again this afternoon and evening. The strongest wind gusts
of 20-30kt will be from the Shasta Valley eastward in northern
California to areas east of the Cascades in Oregon. Right now,
guidance indicates a chance of rain along the coast toward the end
of the TAF period (late tonight). Confidence wasn't high enough to
include as a prevailing weather group, but have added PROB30 -RA to
KOTH after 08Z. -Spilde
&&
.MARINE...Updated 230 AM PDT Monday 14 September 2020....Expect
periods of reduced visibilities due to marine stratus, fog or
wildfire smoke today. A cold front will move toward the coast with
south winds increasing this afternoon. This will result in steep,
choppy seas this evening into Tuesday morning, especially beyond 5
nm from shore along with rain at times. Conditions will improve
later Tuesday, but additional fronts will keep rain chances going
throughout the week. -Spilde
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 445 AM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020/
DISCUSSION...West of the Cascades smoke continues to be the
biggest influence on weather, but becomes a decreasing factor as
the week progresses.
As 700 mb winds become southwesterly over the region today, smoke
above the ridge level begins to be shifted in that direction also.
However, the Slater fire and the Red Salmon fire are continuing
to produce large amounts of smoke, although the activity on these
fires, and other fires across the region are being reduced by
strong inversions caused by the smoke. This shift in the winds
will start to bring some relief to the coast, and inland into Coos
and western Douglas counties.
The ridge to the east continue to move east at a glacial pace,
with a closed low off the coast spinning short waves around it.
The first of these to bring precip to the coast will be on
Tuesday, but with the ridge inland still strong in spite of being
well east of our area, the precip will be confined to the coast
and just inland, and the waters. &00 mb winds will become more
southerly by Wednesday morning, but boundary layer winds will be
from the northwest Tuesday afternoon into the evening, helping to
push smoke inland. However, with the solid deck of smoke, the
heating that brings strong up valley flow will be greatly reduced,
and the up valley winds with it.
As we head into Wednesday the upper ridge continues its slow
migration eastward, and the next short wave brings another
dissipating front into the coast, with chances of rain possibly
reaching Josephine and central Douglas counties, as well a western
Siskiyou county. What is yet to be seen is the effects of the
thick smoke on this possible rain, not as much as the usual
inhibition of heating, but the overabundance of condensation
nuclei. Overabundance of these nuclei has an inhibiting effect on
convective development, but am unsure of its effects on more
stratiform precipitation as we head into the end of the week.
On Wednesday the GFS is showing elevated instability extending
from Humboldt county, into extreme western Siskiyou county, and
up into Josephine county. However, there is uncertainty as to the
westward extent of the thick smoke that would inhibit convective
development, combining with just a short period of time of
southerly flow below 700 mb bringing moist unstable air to "prime
the pump" for convection. With these in mind have not added any
chances of thunderstorms on Wednesday.
The southerly flow continues into Thursday as the upper ridge
continues to move to the east with the upper low continuing to
move to the southern coast of Oregon. This is indicating even
stronger elevated instability, with marginal instablity over
western Siskiyou county in the afternoon, becoming more unstable
as it straddles the Cascades to the north. Again, the smoke will
be an inhibiting factor, and with this uncertainty have kept
chances to slight chance for thunderstorms on Thursday.
The upper trough finally moves through the Pacific northwest on
Friday. bringing chances of precipitation across the east side
with surface to 10,000 ft winds becoming westerly. This pattern will
bring the best improvement to smoke conditions since the major
fire erupted. Sven
AVIATION...For the 14/12Z TAFs...Wildfire smoke will be the main
impact during the TAF period. This will limit visibilities across
much of the area with areas of IFR/LIFR. Partial improvement can be
expected this afternoon. Also of concern are gusty winds that will
develop again this afternoon and evening. The strongest wind gusts
of 20-30kt will be from the Shasta Valley eastward in northern
California to areas east of the Cascades in Oregon. Right now,
guidance indicates a chance of rain along the coast toward the end
of the TAF period (late tonight). Confidence wasn't high enough to
include as a prevailing weather group, but have added PROB30 -RA to
KOTH after 08Z. -Spilde
MARINE...Updated 230 AM PDT Monday 14 September 2020....Expect
periods of reduced visibilities due to marine stratus, fog or
wildfire smoke today. A cold front will move toward the coast with
south winds increasing this afternoon. This will result in steep,
choppy seas this evening into Tuesday morning, especially beyond 5
nm from shore along with rain at times. Conditions will improve
later Tuesday, but additional fronts will keep rain chances going
throughout the week. -Spilde
FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 PM PDT Sunday 13 September 2020...
Smoke will be the big overhanging question for the next several
days, as it will be the major determining factor on wind strength
and temperature through the first part of the week, and
precipitation chances late in the week. But that is the good news,
there are precipitation chances late in the week. Until then, we
will remain under southwest flow aloft, with dry conditions and
breezy afternoon winds, but steadily improving overnight humidities.
The trough offshore will gradually push east over the next several
days, but will have extreme difficulty pushing into the ridge and
dry air mass over the western US. This will keep steady and swift
southwest flow over the region, which typically would keep gusty
surface winds across the East Side and in the Shasta Valley.
However, the extensive smoke cover could limit daytime mixing,
keeping the strongest winds above the inversion. The latest
satellite images today show some thinning of the smoke over the East
Side and the high terrain of the area, and surface wind observations
are beginning to pick up. With this in mind, have continued the Red
Flag Warning for winds and low humidity for the Cascades and East
Side today, and upgraded the Watch to a Warning for Monday. Once we
see how conditions evolve today, we will have a much better idea of
how the forecast will go for the next few days. It is possible we
could see daily Red Flag conditions east of the Cascades through
Thursday.
In the Shasta Valley, south winds have yet to materialize, likely
due to the smoke cover limiting mixing of the higher winds to the
surface. As the smoke continues to push to the north and winds aloft
scour the top of the inversion, heating should increase and surface
winds are still expected to pick up later this afternoon. A Red Flag
Warning continues there through this evening.
In the Rogue Valley, conditions today could go either way between
near calm winds or breezy northwest winds this afternoon, again
depending on the smoke and how much the winds can mix to the
surface. Given the current heightened awareness and social situation
in the valley, as well as the ongoing fires/recovery and the
possibility of near critical weather conditions, we have continued
the Red Flag Warning there for today. This event WILL NOT be
anywhere near the strength of the event last week, but will instead
be more of a dry and breezy afternoon event that we periodically see
in the area, again, only if the winds materialize.
For more information on the expected conditions and the areas
covered by the fire weather headlines, see PDXRFWMFR.
Precipitation chances will not truly arrive in the area until
Wednesday, although some light rain is possible along the immediate
coast late Tuesday. As the trough slowly tries to push inland,
precipitation chances will slowly spread east, reaching the coastal
range Wednesday, the rest of the West Side and the Cascades
Thursday, and then spreading to the East Side Friday as the trough
finally slides by overhead. Again smoke, could keep surface heating
down, and this would limit the chances for showers, thereby
diminishing precipitation amounts. Overall, precipitation looks
increasingly likely for the bulk of the region, although amounts
should be light. Wetting rains are most likely along the coast into
the coastal ranges and into the Umpqua Basin and the Cascades, and
are much less likely elsewhere.
It should also be mentioned that there is a slight chance for
thunderstorms along and west of the Cascades late this week as the
trough passes overhead, but confidence is low given the smoke cover
and the overall dry air mass currently in place. We will keep close
watch on this and update the forecast as needed. -BPN
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for ORZ623>625.
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for ORZ624-625.
Dense Smoke Advisory until noon PDT today for ORZ023-024-026.
CA...Dense Smoke Advisory until noon PDT today for CAZ080-081.
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for CAZ284-285.
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for CAZ284-285.
Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 AM PDT
Tuesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.The office that day
Everything else NWS Medford, OR issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 6:55 PM PDT | Dense Smoke Advisory | MFR | Coos, Curry, Douglas, Jackson, Josephine | 41 hr |
| Sep 14, 1:04 PM PDT | Fire Weather Watch | MFR | Harney, Klamath, Lake | 26 hr |
Nearby
Red Flag Warnings in Oregon, 2020Red Flag Warnings in California, 2020Every red flag warning in 2020
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.