Alert archive / Oregon / Red Flag Warnings in 2020
Red Flag Warning 24, NWS Medford, OR
NWS Medford, OR issued this red flag warning at Sep 11, 2020, 2:32 PM PDT for 6 counties in Oregon; Modoc County, Siskiyou County, California. It took effect at Sep 13, 2020, 11:00 AM PDT. It was in force for 10 hr. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 11, 2020, 2:32 PM PDT (21:32 UTC)
- In effect from
- Sep 13, 2020, 11:00 AM PDT
- Expired
- Sep 13, 2020, 9:00 PM PDT
- In force
- 10 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Medford, OR
Counties Modoc County, CA, Siskiyou County, CA, Douglas County, OR, Harney County, OR, Jackson County, OR, Josephine County, OR, Klamath County, OR, Lake County, OR
The radar
The Medford radar (KMAX), 93 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:30 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 3:00 PM PDT | WILDFIRE | 4 N Winchester, OR | WILDFIRE SMOKE ALONG INTERSTATE 5 IS CAUSING VISIBILITY TO DROP TO AROUND 1/4 MILE BETWEEN ROSEBURG AND SUTHERLIN. TRAFFIC SLOWED CONSIDERABLY. |
Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.
The nearest sounding before it
Medford/Jackson, OR (KMFR), launched 12:00Z, 9.5 hours before the alert went out and 90 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2844 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 14 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 21 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 16 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
827 WWUS86 KMFR 112132 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Medford OR 232 PM PDT Fri Sep 11 2020 ...GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF CASCADES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... .An upper level trough will approach the area from the west, and a mostly dry cold front will slowly make its way onshore beginning Sunday. Gusty south to southwest winds and low humidities are expected to produce critical fire weather conditions along and east of the Cascades and over portions of far northern California Sunday afternoon and evening. CAZ284-285-120945- /O.NEW.KMFR.FW.W.0024.200913T1800Z-200914T0400Z/ Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt Shasta-Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley- 232 PM PDT Fri Sep 11 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 284 AND 285... The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Red Flag Warning...which is in effect from 11 AM to 9 PM PDT Sunday. * Impacts: Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires. * Affected area: In Northern CA, most of Fire Weather Zones 284 and 285, including portions of Modoc, Klamath, and Shasta-Trinity National Forests. * Wind: Southwest 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. * Humidity: As low as 10 percent. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD && $$ ORZ624-625-120945- /O.NEW.KMFR.FW.W.0024.200913T1800Z-200914T0400Z/ Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest- South Central Oregon Desert including the BLM Land in Eastern Lake and Western Harney Counties- 232 PM PDT Fri Sep 11 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 624 AND 625... The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Red Flag Warning...which is in effect from 11 AM to 9 PM PDT Sunday. * Impacts: Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires. * Affected area: In South Central OR, all of Fire Weather Zones 624 and 625, including the Fremont-Winema National Forest. * Wind: Southwest 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. * Humidity: As low as 7 percent. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD && $$ ORZ621-623-120945- /O.NEW.KMFR.FW.W.0024.200913T1800Z-200914T0400Z/ Siskiyou Mountains-Southern Oregon Cascades- 232 PM PDT Fri Sep 11 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 621 AND 623... The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Red Flag Warning...which is in effect from 11 AM to 9 PM PDT Sunday. * Impacts: Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires. * Affected area: In Southwest OR, Fire Weather Zone 623 and eastern Fire Weather Zone 621, including portions of the Fremont- Winema and Rogue River/Siskiyou National Forests * Wind: Southwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. * Humidity: As low as 12 percent. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD && $$ CAZ281-120945- /O.NEW.KMFR.FW.W.0024.200913T1800Z-200914T0400Z/ Central Siskiyou County Including Shasta Valley- 232 PM PDT Fri Sep 11 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 281... The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Red Flag Warning...which is in effect from 11 AM to 9 PM PDT Sunday. * Impacts: Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires. * Affected area: In Northern CA, central and eastern Fire Weather Zone 281, including the Shasta Valley. * Wind: South 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. * Humidity: As low as 10 percent. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD && $$ Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford BPN
6 follow-up statements
067 WWUS86 KMFR 120513 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Medford OR 1013 PM PDT Fri Sep 11 2020 ...GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF CASCADES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... .An upper level trough will approach the area from the west, and a mostly dry cold front will slowly make its way onshore beginning Sunday. Gusty south to southwest winds and low humidities are expected to produce critical fire weather conditions along and east of the Cascades and over portions of far northern California Sunday afternoon and evening. CAZ284-285-122200- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0024.200913T1800Z-200914T0400Z/ Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt Shasta-Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley- 1013 PM PDT Fri Sep 11 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 284 AND 285... * Impacts: Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires. * Affected area: In Northern CA, most of Fire Weather Zones 284 and 285, including portions of Modoc, Klamath, and Shasta-Trinity National Forests. * Wind: Southwest 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. * Humidity: As low as 10 percent. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD $$ ORZ624-625-122200- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0024.200913T1800Z-200914T0400Z/ Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest- South Central Oregon Desert including the BLM Land in Eastern Lake and Western Harney Counties- 1013 PM PDT Fri Sep 11 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 624 AND 625... * Impacts: Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires. * Affected area: In South Central OR, all of Fire Weather Zones 624 and 625, including the Fremont-Winema National Forest. * Wind: Southwest 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. * Humidity: As low as 7 percent. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD $$ ORZ621-623-122200- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0024.200913T1800Z-200914T0400Z/ Siskiyou Mountains-Southern Oregon Cascades- 1013 PM PDT Fri Sep 11 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 621 AND 623... * Impacts: Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires. * Affected area: In Southwest OR, Fire Weather Zone 623 and eastern Fire Weather Zone 621, including portions of the Fremont- Winema and Rogue River/Siskiyou National Forests. * Wind: Southwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. * Humidity: As low as 12 percent. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD $$ CAZ281-122200- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0024.200913T1800Z-200914T0400Z/ Central Siskiyou County Including Shasta Valley- 1013 PM PDT Fri Sep 11 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 281... * Impacts: Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires. * Affected area: In Northern CA, central and eastern Fire Weather Zone 281, including the Shasta Valley. * Wind: South 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. * Humidity: As low as 10 percent. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD $$ Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford
635 WWUS86 KMFR 122021 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Medford OR 121 PM PDT Sat Sep 12 2020 ORZ622-130830- /O.EXB.KMFR.FW.W.0024.200913T2200Z-200914T0300Z/ Eastern Rogue Valley- 121 PM PDT Sat Sep 12 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TO 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 622... The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Red Flag Warning...which is in effect from 3 PM to 8 PM PDT Sunday. * Impacts: Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires. * Affected area: In Southwest OR...much of Fire Weather Zone 622, including the Obenchain and Almeda fires. * Wind: West to northwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. * Humidity: As low as 10 percent. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD && $$ CAZ284-285-130830- /O.NEW.KMFR.FW.A.0022.200914T1800Z-200915T0600Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0024.200913T1800Z-200914T0400Z/ Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt Shasta-Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley- 121 PM PDT Sat Sep 12 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 284 AND 285... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 284 AND 285... The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Fire Weather Watch...which is in effect from Monday morning through Monday evening. * Impacts: Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires. * Affected area: In Northern CA, most of Fire Weather Zones 284 and 285, including portions of Modoc, Klamath, and Shasta-Trinity National Forests. * Wind: Southwest 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. * Humidity: As low as 10 percent. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings. && $$ ORZ624-625-130830- /O.NEW.KMFR.FW.A.0022.200914T1800Z-200915T0600Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0024.200913T1800Z-200914T0400Z/ Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest- South Central Oregon Desert including the BLM Land in Eastern Lake and Western Harney Counties- 121 PM PDT Sat Sep 12 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 624 AND 625... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 624 AND 625... The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Fire Weather Watch...which is in effect from Monday morning through Monday evening. * Impacts: Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires. * Affected area: In South Central OR, all of Fire Weather Zones 624 and 625, including the Fremont-Winema National Forest. * Wind: Southwest 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. * Humidity: As low as 7 percent. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings. && $$ ORZ623-130830- /O.NEW.KMFR.FW.A.0022.200914T1800Z-200915T0600Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0024.200913T1800Z-200914T0400Z/ Southern Oregon Cascades- 121 PM PDT Sat Sep 12 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 623... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 623... The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Fire Weather Watch...which is in effect from Monday morning through Monday evening. * Impacts: Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires. * Affected area: In Southwest OR...Fire Weather Zone 623 including portions of the Fremont- Winema and Rogue River/Siskiyou National Forests. * Wind: Southwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. * Humidity: As low as 10 percent. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings. && $$ ORZ621-130830- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0024.200913T1800Z-200914T0400Z/ Siskiyou Mountains- 121 PM PDT Sat Sep 12 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 621... * Impacts: Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires. * Affected area: In Southwest OR...Fire Weather Zone 621, including portions of the Rogue River/Siskiyou National Forest. * Wind: Southwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. * Humidity: As low as 10 percent. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD $$ CAZ281-130830- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0024.200913T1800Z-200914T0400Z/ Central Siskiyou County Including Shasta Valley- 121 PM PDT Sat Sep 12 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 281... * Impacts: Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires. * Affected area: In Northern CA, central and eastern Fire Weather Zone 281, including the Shasta Valley. * Wind: South 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. * Humidity: As low as 10 percent. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD $$ Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford
778 WWUS86 KMFR 131044 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Medford OR 344 AM PDT Sun Sep 13 2020 CAZ284-285-132245- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0024.200913T1800Z-200914T0400Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.A.0022.200914T1800Z-200915T0600Z/ Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt Shasta-Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley- 344 AM PDT Sun Sep 13 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 284 AND 285... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 284 AND 285... * Impacts: Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires. * Affected area: In Northern CA, most of Fire Weather Zones 284 and 285, including portions of Modoc, Klamath, and Shasta-Trinity National Forests. * Wind: Southwest 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. * Humidity: As low as 10 percent. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD $$ ORZ624-625-132245- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0024.200913T1800Z-200914T0400Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.A.0022.200914T1800Z-200915T0600Z/ Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest- South Central Oregon Desert including the BLM Land in Eastern Lake and Western Harney Counties- 344 AM PDT Sun Sep 13 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 624 AND 625... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 624 AND 625... * Impacts: Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires. * Affected area: In South Central OR, all of Fire Weather Zones 624 and 625, including the Fremont-Winema National Forest. * Wind: Southwest 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. * Humidity: As low as 7 percent. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD $$ ORZ623-132245- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0024.200913T1800Z-200914T0400Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.A.0022.200914T1800Z-200915T0600Z/ Southern Oregon Cascades- 344 AM PDT Sun Sep 13 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 623... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 623... * Impacts: Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires. * Affected area: In Southwest OR...Fire Weather Zone 623 including portions of the Fremont- Winema and Rogue River/Siskiyou National Forests. * Wind: Southwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. * Humidity: As low as 10 percent. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD $$ ORZ621-132245- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0024.200913T1800Z-200914T0400Z/ Siskiyou Mountains- 344 AM PDT Sun Sep 13 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 621... * Impacts: Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires. * Affected area: In Southwest OR...Fire Weather Zone 621, including portions of the Rogue River/Siskiyou National Forest. * Wind: Southwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. * Humidity: As low as 10 percent. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD $$ CAZ281-132245- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0024.200913T1800Z-200914T0400Z/ Central Siskiyou County Including Shasta Valley- 344 AM PDT Sun Sep 13 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 281... * Impacts: Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires. * Affected area: In Northern CA, central and eastern Fire Weather Zone 281, including the Shasta Valley. * Wind: South 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. * Humidity: As low as 10 percent. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD $$ ORZ622-132245- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0024.200913T2200Z-200914T0300Z/ Eastern Rogue Valley- 344 AM PDT Sun Sep 13 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 622... * Impacts: Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires. * Affected area: In Southwest OR...much of Fire Weather Zone 622, including the Obenchain and Almeda fires. * Wind: West to northwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. * Humidity: As low as 10 percent. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD $$ Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford
963 WWUS86 KMFR 132052 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Medford OR 152 PM PDT Sun Sep 13 2020 ORZ624-625-140900- /O.UPG.KMFR.FW.A.0022.200914T1800Z-200915T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KMFR.FW.W.0025.200914T1900Z-200915T0400Z/ /O.NEW.KMFR.FW.A.0023.200915T1900Z-200916T0300Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0024.000000T0000Z-200914T0400Z/ Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest- South Central Oregon Desert including the BLM Land in Eastern Lake and Western Harney Counties- 152 PM PDT Sun Sep 13 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 624 AND 625... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM PDT MONDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 624 AND 625... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 624 AND 625... * Impacts: Gusty winds with low relative humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires. * Affected area: In South Central OR, most of Fire Weather Zones 624 and 625, including the Fremont-Winema National Forest and the Brattain fire. * Wind: South 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. * Humidity: As low as 7 percent. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD && $$ CAZ284-285-140900- /O.UPG.KMFR.FW.A.0022.200914T1800Z-200915T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KMFR.FW.W.0025.200914T1900Z-200915T0400Z/ /O.NEW.KMFR.FW.A.0023.200915T1900Z-200916T0300Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0024.000000T0000Z-200914T0400Z/ Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt Shasta-Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley- 152 PM PDT Sun Sep 13 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 284 AND 285... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM PDT MONDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 284 AND 285... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 284 AND 285... * Impacts: Gusty winds with low relative humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires. * Affected area: In Northern CA, most of Fire Weather Zones 284 and 285, including portions of Modoc, Klamath, and Shasta-Trinity National Forests. * Wind: South 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. * Humidity: As low as 9 percent. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD && $$ ORZ623-140900- /O.UPG.KMFR.FW.A.0022.200914T1800Z-200915T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KMFR.FW.W.0025.200914T1900Z-200915T0400Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0024.000000T0000Z-200914T0400Z/ Southern Oregon Cascades- 152 PM PDT Sun Sep 13 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 623... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM PDT MONDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 623... * Impacts: Gusty winds with low relative humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires. * Affected area: In Southwest OR...Fire Weather Zone 623 including portions of the Fremont-Winema and Rogue River/Siskiyou National Forests. * Wind: Southwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. * Humidity: As low as 10 percent. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD && $$ ORZ621-140400- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0024.000000T0000Z-200914T0400Z/ Siskiyou Mountains- 152 PM PDT Sun Sep 13 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 621... * Impacts: Gusty winds with low relative humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires. * Affected area: In Southwest OR...Fire Weather Zone 621, including portions of the Rogue River/Siskiyou National Forest. * Wind: Southwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. * Humidity: As low as 10 percent. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD $$ CAZ281-140400- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0024.000000T0000Z-200914T0400Z/ Central Siskiyou County Including Shasta Valley- 152 PM PDT Sun Sep 13 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 281... * Impacts: Gusty winds with low relative humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires. * Affected area: In Northern CA, central and eastern Fire Weather Zone 281, including the Shasta Valley. * Wind: South 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. * Humidity: As low as 10 percent. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD $$ ORZ622-140300- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0024.200913T2200Z-200914T0300Z/ Eastern Rogue Valley- 152 PM PDT Sun Sep 13 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 622... * Impacts: Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires. * Affected area: In Southwest OR...much of Fire Weather Zone 622, including the Obenchain and Almeda fires. * Wind: West to northwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. * Humidity: As low as 10 percent. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD $$ Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford
072 WWUS86 KMFR 140058 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Medford OR 558 PM PDT Sun Sep 13 2020 ORZ624-625-141300- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0024.000000T0000Z-200914T0400Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0025.200914T1900Z-200915T0400Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.A.0023.200915T1900Z-200916T0300Z/ Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest- South Central Oregon Desert including the BLM Land in Eastern Lake and Western Harney Counties- 558 PM PDT Sun Sep 13 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 624 AND 625... ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM PDT MONDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 624 AND 625... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 624 AND 625... * Impacts: Strong,gusty wind with low relative humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires. * Affected area: In South Central OR, most of Fire Weather Zones 624 and 625, including the Fremont-Winema National Forest and the Brattain fire. * Wind: South 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. * Humidity: As low as 7 percent. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD $$ CAZ284-285-141300- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0024.000000T0000Z-200914T0400Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0025.200914T1900Z-200915T0400Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.A.0023.200915T1900Z-200916T0300Z/ Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt Shasta-Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley- 558 PM PDT Sun Sep 13 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 284 AND 285... ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM PDT MONDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 284 AND 285... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 284 AND 285... * Impacts: Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires. * Affected area: In Northern CA, most of Fire Weather Zones 284 and 285, including portions of Modoc, Klamath, and Shasta-Trinity National Forests. * Wind: South 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. * Humidity: As low as 9 percent. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD $$ ORZ623-141300- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0024.000000T0000Z-200914T0400Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0025.200914T1900Z-200915T0400Z/ Southern Oregon Cascades- 558 PM PDT Sun Sep 13 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 623... ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM PDT MONDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 623... * Impacts: Gusty wind with low relative humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires. * Affected area: In Southwest OR...Fire Weather Zone 623. * Wind: South 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. * Humidity: As low as 10 percent. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD $$ ORZ621-140400- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0024.000000T0000Z-200914T0400Z/ Siskiyou Mountains- 558 PM PDT Sun Sep 13 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 621... * Impacts: Gusty winds with low relative humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires. * Affected area: In Southwest OR...Fire Weather Zone 621, including portions of the Rogue River/Siskiyou National Forest. * Wind: Southwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. * Humidity: As low as 10 percent. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD $$ CAZ281-140400- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0024.000000T0000Z-200914T0400Z/ Central Siskiyou County Including Shasta Valley- 558 PM PDT Sun Sep 13 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 281... * Impacts: Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires. * Affected area: In Northern CA...In Northern CA, central and eastern Fire Weather Zone 281, including the Shasta Valley. * Wind: Southwest 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. * Humidity: As low as 10 percent. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD $$ ORZ622-140300- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0024.000000T0000Z-200914T0300Z/ Eastern Rogue Valley- 558 PM PDT Sun Sep 13 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 622... * Impacts: Gusty wind with low relative humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires. * Affected area: In Southwest OR...much of Fire Weather Zone 622, mainly above 2500 ft elevation. This includes the Obenchain fire. * Wind: West to northwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. * Humidity: As low as 10 percent. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD $$ Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford
833 WWUS86 KMFR 140250 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Medford OR 750 PM PDT Sun Sep 13 2020 ORZ622-140400- /O.EXP.KMFR.FW.W.0024.000000T0000Z-200914T0300Z/ Eastern Rogue Valley- 750 PM PDT Sun Sep 13 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 622... Winds have begun to lower and humidities to rise. $$ ORZ624-625-141500- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0024.000000T0000Z-200914T0400Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0025.200914T1900Z-200915T0400Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.A.0023.200915T1900Z-200916T0300Z/ Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest- South Central Oregon Desert including the BLM Land in Eastern Lake and Western Harney Counties- 750 PM PDT Sun Sep 13 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 624 AND 625... ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM PDT MONDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 624 AND 625... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 624 AND 625... * Impacts: Strong,gusty wind with low relative humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires. * Affected area: In South Central OR, most of Fire Weather Zones 624 and 625, including the Fremont-Winema National Forest and the Brattain fire. * Wind: South 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. * Humidity: As low as 7 percent. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD $$ CAZ284-285-141500- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0024.000000T0000Z-200914T0400Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0025.200914T1900Z-200915T0400Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.A.0023.200915T1900Z-200916T0300Z/ Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt Shasta-Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley- 750 PM PDT Sun Sep 13 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 284 AND 285... ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM PDT MONDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 284 AND 285... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 284 AND 285... * Impacts: Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires. * Affected area: In Northern CA, most of Fire Weather Zones 284 and 285, including portions of Modoc, Klamath, and Shasta-Trinity National Forests. * Wind: South 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. * Humidity: As low as 9 percent. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD $$ ORZ623-141500- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0024.000000T0000Z-200914T0400Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0025.200914T1900Z-200915T0400Z/ Southern Oregon Cascades- 750 PM PDT Sun Sep 13 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 623... ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM PDT MONDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 623... * Impacts: Gusty wind with low relative humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires. * Affected area: In Southwest OR...Fire Weather Zone 623. * Wind: South 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. * Humidity: As low as 10 percent. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD $$ ORZ621-140400- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0024.000000T0000Z-200914T0400Z/ Siskiyou Mountains- 750 PM PDT Sun Sep 13 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 621... * Impacts: Gusty winds with low relative humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires. * Affected area: In Southwest OR...Fire Weather Zone 621, including portions of the Rogue River/Siskiyou National Forest. * Wind: Southwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. * Humidity: As low as 10 percent. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD $$ CAZ281-140400- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0024.000000T0000Z-200914T0400Z/ Central Siskiyou County Including Shasta Valley- 750 PM PDT Sun Sep 13 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 281... * Impacts: Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires. * Affected area: In Northern CA...In Northern CA, central and eastern Fire Weather Zone 281, including the Shasta Valley. * Wind: Southwest 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. * Humidity: As low as 10 percent. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD $$ Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this red flag warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before this red flag warning went out at Sep 11, 9:32 AM PDT, 5 hours earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Sep 11, 9:32 AM PDT, 5 hours before
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 932 AM PDT Fri Sep 11 2020 .DISCUSSION...The latest visible image shows smoke pretty much over the entire forecast area and it's thickest west of the Cascades. the concentration of smoke near the surface may end up less in the afternoon as the mixing height increases, but that does not mean improvement. No updates are needed for this morning. Please see previous discussion for more details. && .AVIATION...For the 10/12Z TAFs...Wildfire smoke will be the main impact to aviation for the next 24 hours. Right now, IFR/LIFR smoke is affecting most areas near and west of the Cascades, including KOTH, KRBG and KMFR. Marine stratus/fog also continues to limit ceilings and visibility over the coastal waters and along the coast. Expect conditions in these areas to generally waver from LIFR to IFR (perhaps MVFR briefly) and back to LIFR through Friday. Expect smoke to spread east of the Cascades overnight with visibility reduced to IFR/LIFR, even at KLMT. This spread of smoke to the east will be more prolific Friday. && .MARINE...Updated 900 AM PDT Friday 11 September 2020....Weak southerly winds today will become a mix of light northerly and variable winds on the weekend. Low seas will persist through Sunday. Marine stratus or fog will affect the area today and into this weekend. Visibility may continue to be reduced by wildfire smoke at times. Early next week, south winds will increase as a front approaches the area and steep, choppy seas may develop across the waters. -CC/Petrucelli && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 345 AM PDT Fri Sep 11 2020/ DISCUSSION...Adjusted MaxTs to account for smoke in the valleys using todays observed MaxT and reducing a few degrees further for increasing smoke concentrations. Wind information can be found in the fire weather section below. Smoke impacts will continue to spread across the entire forecast area through the weekend, from west to east as we get more westerly flow on area fires. One area that may eventually see a reprieve from significant smoke impacts in the coast, but smoke that spans hundreds of miles offshore will still need to push through the area before any clearing. Attention turns to an upper trough that will be approaching early next week. The impacts will begin Sunday, as winds begin to pick up along and east of the cascades. This bring another round of critical fire weather conditions. Rain chances enter the forecast on Monday, and for now our messaging is this: There's a 60% chance of rain generally from the Umpqua Valley south to the Illinois Valley and westward. Not currently anticipating much if any rain reaching eastern Lake County. Thunderstorm potential...Tues., Wed., and Thurs...Have kept it out on Tuesday because of smoke; confidence is moderate . Wednesday, there could be less smoke after a few days of windier conditions. There is also agreement in the GFS and EC for negative LIs with an area of 500+ J/kg of CAPE. Even if smoke exists in valleys, it seems reasonable that ridges will be more cleared by increasing winds to support better thermal heating. With low-to- moderate confidence (NBM Tstorm probs 15-20%), introduced a slight chance for Tstorms from Roseburg to Chemult and south from Chemult along the Cascade ridge to Howard Prairie. Climatology suggests that areas south of here are not climatologically favored for lightning, however the area of CAPE and LIs does south to the Trinity horn. Will look for this signal to remain in the next few runs before extending south. Thursday is a difficult forecast situation, while low potential does exist cut off lows are difficult for models to predict and the ensembles are struggling to resolve how the low and ridge will respond to each other. While the potential is not zero, confidence is far too low to introduce Tstorms at this time. -Miles FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 AM PDT Friday 11 September 2020...The area will remain under the influence of an upper ridge with westerly/onshore flow through Saturday. West to southwest afternoon breezes will develop in the afternoons and evenings, especially for areas west of the Cascades today then for most all inland valleys on Saturday. For the most part, we're not expecting gusty winds, but valleys west of the Cascades will see an uptick in breezes late in the afternoon and evening. Winds in these areas will drop off pretty quick around sunset with generally light winds expected for the overnight hours. Overall, humidity recoveries will gradually improve from west to east and recoveries this morning will be significantly better than recent nights. Daytime humidities, however, will remain low through the weekend with teens expected across inland west side valleys and single digits for valleys east of the Cascades. Warm weather will persist into the weekend. No critical fire weather patterns are currently expected through Saturday. This will change Sunday, as the upper ridge shifts east due to an upper trough approaching the area. Southwest winds ahead of this trough will increase, and gusts of 30 to 40 mph are possible Sunday afternoon for the areas east of the Cascades. (portions of FWZ 624, 625, 284, and 285). Monday night into Tuesday could end up being the first day in quite some time where we could see some measurable rainfall at the coast and inland westside locations. Operational models are starting to come into better agreement with the timing of the initial front (which could be at the coast late Monday afternoon, then inland westside Monday night). Confidence is low in the details at this time, however, since typically, the first front of the season weakens considerably as it moves into the very dry air from the ridge. However, numerous ensembles are in agreement with their operational counterparts in showing precipitation arriving to the area late Monday into Tuesday. Confidence in precipitation is higher for coastal locations and north of the Umpqua Divide, then confidence decreases for locations farther east and south. At the least, we'll see a trend towards cooler temperatures and slightly higher humidities, especially daytime humidities, but the one thing we'll have to keep a watch on is continued gusty winds along and east of the Cascades. Overall, expect a transition to a cooler pattern with increased chances for precipitation. Wednesday, the upper low may remain just off the coast or near the northern California - Oregon border. This may result in additional moisture and some instability moving into the area, resulting in additional chances for rain along with a slight chance of thunderstorms for central portions of the area. -CC AVIATION...For the 10/06Z TAFs...Wildfire smoke will be the main impact to aviation for the next 24 hours. Right now, IFR/LIFR smoke is affecting most areas near and west of the Cascades, including KOTH, KRBG and KMFR. Marine stratus/fog also continues to limit ceilings and visibility over the coastal waters and along the coast. Expect conditions in these areas to generally waver from LIFR to IFR (perhaps MVFR briefly) and back to LIFR through Friday. Expect smoke to spread east of the Cascades overnight with visibility reduced to IFR/LIFR, even at KLMT. This spread of smoke to the east will be more prolific Friday. -Spilde/Smith MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Friday 11 September 2020....Weak southerly winds today will become a mix of light northerly and variable winds on the weekend. Low seas will persist through Sunday. Marine stratus or fog will affect the area today and into this weekend. Visibility may continue to be reduced by wildfire smoke at times. Early next week, south winds will increase as a front approaches the area and steep, choppy seas may develop across the waters. -CC && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. CA...None. Pacific Coastal Waters...None.
The office that day
Everything else NWS Medford, OR issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2:40 PM PDT | Dense Smoke Advisory | MFR | Coos, Curry, Douglas, Jackson, Josephine, Lake | 41 hr |
Nearby
Red Flag Warnings in Oregon, 2020Red Flag Warnings in California, 2020Every red flag warning in 2020
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.