Red Flag Warning 23, NWS Medford, OR

524 
WWUS86 KMFR 092209 CCA
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Medford OR
309 PM PDT Wed Sep 9 2020

Corrected Fire Weather Zones in Porduct Segments

...Dry and Unstable Haines 6 Conditions West of Cascades Thursday...

.East winds will gradually diminish across the area today through
Thursday morning. As easterly winds subside and become westerly
Thursday afternoon, the thermal trough will bring dry and unstable
air over the ongoing wildfires resulting in another round of Red 
Flag Warning conditions into Thursday evening.

ORZ616-620-622-101000-
/O.COR.KMFR.FW.W.0023.200910T2100Z-200911T0300Z/
/O.COR.KMFR.FW.W.0021.000000T0000Z-200910T0000Z/
Umpqua Basin-Western Rogue Basin including the Illinois Valley-
Eastern Rogue Valley-
309 PM PDT Wed Sep 9 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH AND POOR RH RECOVERY
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 616...620...622...

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
HAINES 6 WITH EXISTING FIRE FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 616...620 AND
622...

The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Red Flag
Warning...which is in effect from 2 PM to 8 PM PDT Thursday.

* Impacts Today: Gusty east winds 20 to 30 mph, low relative 
  humidities, poor overnight recoveries, and high fire danger will 
  contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires 
  through late this afternoon.

* Impacts Thursday: Very dry and unstable conditions will support
  the potential for plume dominated fire activity Thursday
  afternoon and evening. Plume dominated fire activity has a high
  chance of resulting in locally-generated, erratic and gusty 
  winds to the surface resulting in spot fires.

* Affected area: 
  - In Fire Zone....616. 
  - In Southwest OR Fire Zones...620...622.

* Wind: Southeast 10 to 20 mph with gusts 20 to 30 mph through 5 PM
  PDT this evening, diminishing this evening. Southeast winds
  gusting 15 to 25 mph are then expected locally near Ashland late
  tonight through late Thursday morning. Winds will become
  northwest 5 to 10 mph with gusts 10 to 15 mph Thursday afternoon
  and evening.

* Humidity: As low as 6 percent.

* One less spark, one less wildfire.

* View the hazard area in detail at:
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Strong winds and low relative humidities will cause unsuppressed fires
to spread very rapidly.

Unstable and very dry conditions with a Haines level of 6 is 
conducive to plume dominated fire.

&&

$$

ORZ621-101000-
/O.NEW.KMFR.FW.W.0023.200910T2100Z-200911T0300Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0021.000000T0000Z-200910T0400Z/
Siskiyou Mountains-
309 PM PDT Wed Sep 9 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR EAST WIND WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY STRONG GUSTY WIND
WITH LOW RH AND HAINES 6 WITH EXISTING FIRE FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE
621...

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
HAINES 6 WITH EXISTING FIRE FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 621...

The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Red Flag
Warning...which is in effect from 2 PM to 8 PM PDT Thursday.

* Impacts Today: Gusty east winds 20 to 30 mph, low relative 
  humidities, poor overnight recoveries, and high fire danger will 
  contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires 
  through late this afternoon.

* Impacts Thursday: Very dry and unstable conditions will support
  the potential for plume dominated fire activity Thursday
  afternoon and evening. Plume dominated fire activity has a high
  chance of resulting in locally-generated, erratic and gusty 
  winds to the surface resulting in spot fires.

* Affected area: 
 In Southwest OR...Fire Weather Zone 621.

* Humidity: As low as 7 percent.

* One less spark, one less wildfire.

* View the hazard area in detail at:
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Strong winds and low relative humidities will cause unsuppressed fires
to spread very rapidly.

Unstable and very dry conditions with a Haines level of 6 is 
conducive to plume dominated fire.

&&

$$

CAZ282-ORZ617>619-623-100000-
/O.COR.KMFR.FW.W.0021.000000T0000Z-200910T0000Z/
Shasta-Trinity National Forest in Siskiyou County-
Umpqua National Forest-Southern Oregon Coast-Western Rogue River-
Siskiyou National Forest-Southern Oregon Cascades-
309 PM PDT Wed Sep 9 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH AND POOR RH RECOVERY
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 282 IN CALIFORNIA AND FIRE WEATHER ZONES 
617...618...619...AND 623...

* Impacts: Strong gusty east winds, low relative humidities, poor
  overnight recoveries, and high fire danger will contribute to a
  significant spread of new and existing fires.

* Affected area: 
  - In Northern CA...Fire Weather Zone 282.
  - In SW Oregon...Fire Weather Zones 617, 618, 619, and 623. 

* Wind: East 5 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* Humidity: As low as 8 percent.

* One less spark, one less wildfire.

* View the hazard area in detail at:
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

$$

CAZ280-100400-
/O.COR.KMFR.FW.W.0021.000000T0000Z-200910T0400Z/
Western Klamath National Forest-
309 PM PDT Wed Sep 9 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR EAST WIND WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY STRONG GUSTY WIND
WITH LOW RH AND HAINES 6 WITH EXISTING FIRE FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE
621...

* Impacts: Strong gusty east winds, low relative humidities, poor
  overnight recoveries, and high fire danger will contribute to a
  significant spread of new and existing fires. Also, Haines 
  level of 6, means dry and unstable air extends well up above the
  fire, which is conducive to plume dominated fire.

* Affected area: 
  In Northern CA Fire Zone....280.
  In Southwest OR Fire Zone....621.

* Wind: East 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* Humidity: As low as 6 percent.

* One less spark, one less wildfire.

* View the hazard area in detail at:
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

$$

BTL

Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford

977 
WWUS86 KMFR 100015
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
515 PM PDT Wed Sep 9 2020

...Dry and Unstable Haines 6 Conditions West of Cascades 
Thursday...

.East winds will gradually diminish across the area today through
Thursday morning. As easterly winds subside and become westerly
Thursday afternoon, the thermal trough will bring dry and unstable
air over the ongoing wildfires resulting in another round of Red
Flag Warning conditions into Thursday evening.

ORZ616-620-622-101215-
/O.EXP.KMFR.FW.W.0021.000000T0000Z-200910T0000Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0023.200910T2100Z-200911T0300Z/
Umpqua Basin-Western Rogue Basin including the Illinois Valley-
Eastern Rogue Valley-
515 PM PDT Wed Sep 9 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM PDT
THURSDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH AND POOR RH RECOVERY
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 616...620...622...
...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH
AND POOR RH RECOVERY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 616...620...622...

* Impacts Today: Gusty east winds 20 to 30 mph, low relative
humidities, poor overnight recoveries, and high fire danger will
contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires
through late this afternoon.

* Impacts Thursday: Very dry and unstable conditions will support
the potential for plume dominated fire activity Thursday afternoon
and evening. Plume dominated fire activity has a high chance of
resulting in locally-generated, erratic and gusty winds to the
surface resulting in spot fires.

* Affected area: 
  In  Fire Zone....616.
  In Southwest OR Fire Zones...620...622.

* Wind: Southeast winds gusting 15 to 25 mph are expected locally 
  near Ashland late tonight through late Thursday morning. Winds 
  will become northwest 5 to 10 mph with gusts 10 to 15 mph 
  Thursday afternoon and evening.

* Humidity: As low as 6 percent.

* One less spark, one less wildfire.

* View the hazard area in detail at:
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Strong winds and low relative humidities will cause fires to
spread very rapidly.

&&

$$

CAZ282-ORZ617>619-623-100115-
/O.EXP.KMFR.FW.W.0021.000000T0000Z-200910T0000Z/
Shasta-Trinity National Forest in Siskiyou County-
Umpqua National Forest-Southern Oregon Coast-Western Rogue River-
Siskiyou National Forest-Southern Oregon Cascades-
515 PM PDT Wed Sep 9 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH
AND POOR RH RECOVERY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 282 IN CALIFORNIA AND
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 617...618...619...AND 623...

Although recoveries will be poor tonight, winds will continue to
decrease through the evening.

$$

ORZ621-101215-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0021.000000T0000Z-200910T0400Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0023.200910T2100Z-200911T0300Z/
Siskiyou Mountains-
515 PM PDT Wed Sep 9 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR EAST WIND WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY STRONG GUSTY WIND
WITH LOW RH AND HAINES 6 WITH EXISTING FIRE FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE
621...
...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM PDT
THURSDAY FOR EAST WIND WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY STRONG
GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH AND HAINES 6 WITH EXISTING FIRE FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 621...

* Impacts Today: Gusty east winds 20 to 30 mph, low relative
humidities, poor overnight recoveries, and high fire danger will
contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires
through late this afternoon.

* Impacts Thursday: Very dry and unstable conditions will support
the potential for plume dominated fire activity Thursday afternoon
and evening. Plume dominated fire activity has a high chance of
resulting in locally-generated, erratic and gusty winds to the
surface resulting in spot fires.

* Affected area: 
  In Southwest OR...Fire Weather Zone 621.

* Humidity: As low as 7 percent.

* One less spark, one less wildfire.

* View the hazard area in detail at:
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

$$

CAZ280-100400-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0021.000000T0000Z-200910T0400Z/
Western Klamath National Forest-
515 PM PDT Wed Sep 9 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR EAST WIND WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY STRONG GUSTY WIND
WITH LOW RH AND HAINES 6 WITH EXISTING FIRE FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE
621...

* Impacts:  Strong gusty east winds, low relative humidities, poor
  overnight recoveries, and high fire danger will contribute to a
  significant spread of new and existing fires. Also, Haines 
  level of 6, means dry and unstable air extends well up above the
  fire, which is conducive to plume dominated fire.

* Affected area: 
  In Northern CA...Fire Weather Zone 280.

* Wind: East 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* Humidity: As low as 6 percent.

* One less spark, one less wildfire.

* View the hazard area in detail at:
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

$$


Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford

773 
WWUS86 KMFR 100415
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
915 PM PDT Wed Sep 9 2020

...Dry and Unstable Haines 6 Conditions West of Cascades
Thursday...

.East winds will gradually diminish across the area today through
Thursday morning. As easterly winds subside and become westerly
Thursday afternoon, the thermal trough will bring dry and unstable
air over the ongoing wildfires resulting in another round of Red
Flag Warning conditions into Thursday evening.

ORZ621-101615-
/O.EXP.KMFR.FW.W.0021.000000T0000Z-200910T0400Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0023.200910T2100Z-200911T0300Z/
Siskiyou Mountains-
915 PM PDT Wed Sep 9 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM PDT
THURSDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH AND HAINES 6 WITH 
EXISTING FIRE FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 621...
 
...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR EAST WIND WITH POOR OVERNIGHT 
RH RECOVERY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 621...

* Impacts: Very dry and unstable conditions will support the 
  potential for plume dominated fire activity Thursday afternoon 
  and evening. Plume dominated fire activity has a high chance of 
  resulting in locally-generated, erratic and gusty winds to the 
  surface resulting in spot fires.

* Affected area: 
  In Southwest OR...Fire Weather Zone 621.

* Humidity: As low as 7 percent.

* One less spark, one less wildfire.

* View the hazard area in detail at:
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Haines level of 6, especially at the high level cut is conducive
to plume dominated fire. 

&&

$$

CAZ280-100515-
/O.EXP.KMFR.FW.W.0021.000000T0000Z-200910T0400Z/
Western Klamath National Forest-
915 PM PDT Wed Sep 9 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR EAST WIND WITH POOR OVERNIGHT
RH RECOVERY STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH AND HAINES 6 WITH
EXISTING FIRE FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 621...

Winds will continue to decrease tonight.

$$

ORZ616-620-622-101615-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0023.200910T2100Z-200911T0300Z/
Umpqua Basin-Western Rogue Basin including the Illinois Valley-
Eastern Rogue Valley-
915 PM PDT Wed Sep 9 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM PDT
THURSDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH AND A HAINES OF 6 ON
EXISTING FIRES FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 616...620...622...

* Impacts : Very dry and unstable conditions will support the 
  potential for plume dominated fire activity Thursday afternoon 
  and evening. Plume dominated fire activity has a high chance of 
  resulting in locally-generated, erratic and gusty winds to the 
  surface resulting in spot fires.

* Affected area: 
  In  Fire Zone....616.
  In Southwest OR Fire Zones...620...622.

* Wind: Southeast winds gusting 15 to 25 mph are expected locally
near Ashland late tonight through late Thursday morning. Winds
will become northwest 5 to 10 mph with gusts 10 to 15 mph Thursday
afternoon and evening.

* Humidity: As low as 6 percent.

* One less spark, one less wildfire.

* View the hazard area in detail at:
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

$$


Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford

447 
WWUS86 KMFR 101104
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
404 AM PDT Thu Sep 10 2020

...Dry and Unstable Haines 6 Conditions West of Cascades
Thursday...

.East winds will gradually diminish across the area this morning. 
As easterly winds subside and become westerly this afternoon, the 
thermal trough will bring dry and unstable air over the ongoing 
wildfires resulting in another round of Red Flag Warning conditions
into this evening.

ORZ616-620>622-110000-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0023.200910T2100Z-200911T0300Z/
Umpqua Basin-Western Rogue Basin including the Illinois Valley-
Siskiyou Mountains-Eastern Rogue Valley-
404 AM PDT Thu Sep 10 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH AND A
HAINES OF 6 ON EXISTING FIRES FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 616...620...
622...

* Impacts : Very dry and unstable conditions will support the
  potential for plume dominated fire activity this afternoon and 
  evening. Plume dominated fire activity has a high chance of 
  resulting in locally-generated, erratic and gusty winds to the 
  surface resulting in spot fires.

* Affected area: In Fire Zone....616. In Southwest OR Fire 
  Zones...620...621...622.

* Wind: Southeast winds gusting 15 to 25 mph are then expected
  locally near Ashland this morning. Winds will become northwest 5
  to 10 mph with gusts 10 to 15 mph this afternoon and evening.

* Humidity: As low as 6 percent.

* One less spark, one less wildfire.

* Unstable and very dry conditions with a Haines level of 6 is 
conducive to plume dominated fire.

* View the hazard area in detail at:
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

$$


Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford

248 
WWUS86 KMFR 101519
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
819 AM PDT Thu Sep 10 2020

...Dry and Unstable Haines 6 Conditions west of Cascades today...

...Strong gusty winds and low relative humidities for the Shasta 
Valley this afternoon...

.East winds will gradually diminish across the area this morning.
As easterly winds subside and become westerly to northwesterly this
afternoon, the thermal trough will bring dry and unstable air over
the ongoing wildfires resulting in another round of Red Flag 
Warning conditions into this evening. In addition, strong gusty 
south to southeast winds and low relative humidities are expected
this afternoon for portions of the Shasta Valley. 

CAZ281-110300-
/O.EXA.KMFR.FW.W.0023.200910T2100Z-200911T0300Z/
Central Siskiyou County Including Shasta Valley-
819 AM PDT Thu Sep 10 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT
THIS EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH AND HAINES 6 WITH
EXISTING FIRE FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 281...

The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Red Flag
Warning...which is in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT
this evening.

* Impacts : Strong gusty south to southeast winds coupled with low
  relative humidities, and high fire danger will likely contribute
  to a significant spread of new and existing fires.

* Affected area: 
  In Northern CA...Fire Weather Zone 281.

* Wind: South to southeast 10 to 15 mph with gusts 20 to 30 mph.

* Humidity: As low as 5 percent.

* One less spark, one less wildfire.

* Unstable and very dry conditions with a Haines level of 6 is
conducive to plume dominated fire.

* View the hazard area in detail at:
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

&&

$$

ORZ616-620>622-110300-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0023.200910T2100Z-200911T0300Z/
Umpqua Basin-Western Rogue Basin including the Illinois Valley-
Siskiyou Mountains-Eastern Rogue Valley-
819 AM PDT Thu Sep 10 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH AND A
HAINES OF 6 ON EXISTING FIRES FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 616...620...
622...

* Impacts : Very dry and unstable conditions will support the
  potential for plume dominated fire activity this afternoon and
  evening. Plume dominated fire activity has a high chance of
  bringing locally-generated, erratic and gusty winds to the
  surface which could result in spot fires.

* Affected area: 
  In  Fire Zone....616.
  In Southwest OR Fire Zones...620...621...622.

* Wind: Southeast winds gusting 15 to 25 mph are then expected
  locally near Ashland this morning. Winds will become northwest 5
  to 10 mph with gusts 10 to 15 mph this afternoon and evening.

* Humidity: As low as 7 percent.

* One less spark, one less wildfire.

* Unstable and very dry conditions with a Haines level of 6 is
conducive to plume dominated fire.

* View the hazard area in detail at:
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

$$


Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford

927 
WWUS86 KMFR 101745
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
1045 AM PDT Thu Sep 10 2020

...Dry and Unstable Haines 6 Conditions west of Cascades today...

...Strong gusty winds and low relative humidities for the Shasta
Valley this afternoon...

.Lingering easterly winds west of the Cascades, mainly on the upper 
slopes and ridges this morning, will diminish around midday before 
shifting to west to northwest across much of the area this afternoon 
into this evening. However, gusty southerly winds are expected in 
the Shasta Valley and across the east side this afternoon and evening. 
Dry and unstable conditions moving over the interior west side this 
afternoon and evening will result in the potential of plume dominated 
fire activity in that area.

CAZ281-110300-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0023.200910T2100Z-200911T0300Z/
Central Siskiyou County Including Shasta Valley-
1045 AM PDT Thu Sep 10 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR HAINES 6 WITH EXISTING FIRE FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 281...

* Impacts: Strong gusty south to southeast winds coupled with very
  low relative humidities and Very High Fire Danger will lead to
  the potential for significant spread of any new and existing 
  fires.

* Affected area: 
 In Northern CA...Fire Weather Zone 281, particularly the Shasta Valley.

* Wind: Southeast 5 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* Humidity: As low as 5 percent.

* Additional Information: Very dry and unstable air will also be moving
  overhead today. 

* One less spark, one less wildfire.

* View the hazard area in detail at:
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

$$

ORZ616-620>622-110300-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0023.200910T2100Z-200911T0300Z/
Umpqua Basin-Western Rogue Basin including the Illinois Valley-
Siskiyou Mountains-Eastern Rogue Valley-
1045 AM PDT Thu Sep 10 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR HAINES 6 WITH EXISTING FIRE FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 616...620...621 AND 622...

* Impacts: Very dry and unstable conditions will support the
  potential for plume dominated fire activity this afternoon and
  evening. Plume dominated fire activity has a high chance of
  bringing locally-generated, erratic and gusty winds to the
  surface.

* Affected area: 
  In  Fire Zone....616.
  In Southwest OR Fire Zones...620...621...622.

* Wind: Becoming northwesterly 5 to 10 with gusts 10 to 15 mph.

* Humidity: As low as 7 percent.

* One less spark, one less wildfire.

* Unstable and very dry conditions with a Haines level of 6 is
  conducive to plume dominated fire.

* View the hazard area in detail at:
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

$$
BTL/MNF

Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford

999 
WWUS86 KMFR 101911 CCA
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Medford OR
1211 PM PDT Thu Sep 10 2020

Corrected headline for FWZ 281

...Dry and Unstable Haines 6 Conditions west of Cascades today...

...Gusty winds and low relative humidities for the Shasta Valley 
this afternoon...

.Lingering easterly winds west of the Cascades, mainly on the upper 
slopes and ridges this morning, will diminish around midday before 
shifting to west to northwest across much of the area this afternoon 
into this evening. However, gusty southerly winds are expected in 
the Shasta Valley and across the east side this afternoon and evening. 
Dry and unstable conditions moving over the interior west side this 
afternoon and evening will result in the potential of plume dominated 
fire activity in that area.

CAZ281-110300-
/O.COR.KMFR.FW.W.0023.200910T2100Z-200911T0300Z/
Central Siskiyou County Including Shasta Valley-
1211 PM PDT Thu Sep 10 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 281...

* Impacts: Gusty south to southeast winds coupled with very low 
  relative humidities and Very High Fire Danger will lead to the 
  potential for significant spread of any new and existing fires.

* Affected area: 
 In Northern CA...Fire Weather Zone 281, particularly the Shasta Valley.

* Wind: Southeast 5 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* Humidity: As low as 5 percent.

* Additional Information: Very dry and unstable air will also be moving
  overhead today. 

* One less spark, one less wildfire.

* View the hazard area in detail at:
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

$$

ORZ616-620>622-110300-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0023.200910T2100Z-200911T0300Z/
Umpqua Basin-Western Rogue Basin including the Illinois Valley-
Siskiyou Mountains-Eastern Rogue Valley-
1211 PM PDT Thu Sep 10 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR HAINES 6 WITH EXISTING FIRE FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 616...620...621 AND 622...

* Impacts: Very dry and unstable conditions will support the
  potential for plume dominated fire activity this afternoon and
  evening. Plume dominated fire activity has a high chance of
  bringing locally-generated, erratic and gusty winds to the
  surface.

* Affected area: 
  In  Fire Zone....616.
  In Southwest OR Fire Zones...620...621...622.

* Wind: Becoming northwesterly 5 to 10 with gusts 10 to 15 mph.

* Humidity: As low as 7 percent.

* One less spark, one less wildfire.

* Unstable and very dry conditions with a Haines level of 6 is
  conducive to plume dominated fire.

* View the hazard area in detail at:
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

$$
BTL/MNF

Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1111 AM PDT Wed Sep 9 2020

.Updated Aviation Discussion.

.DISCUSSION...Extremely critical fire weather conditions continue this
morning across areas from the Cascades westward. We've now
observed multiple daily record dry balloon soundings in
Medford...with precipitable water values of 0.23, 0.26, and 0.23
inches on the Tuesday morning, Tuesday afternoon, and now this
morning's sounding. All this means is we continue to deal with a
historically dry air mass. Humidity values are at amazingly low
values this morning...at 10 to 20 percent in many locations west
of the Cascades with some single digit values being observed as
well.

Deep layer winds remain from the east to southeast across the
forecast area this morning, and valleys like the Rogue Valley that
saw a little reprieve from winds last night should pick up later
this morning. Higher terrain areas continue to be very gusty with
readings of 50 mph at Onion Mountain west of Grants Pass and 39mph
at Slater Butte near the Slater Fire. Late this afternoon, winds
from the Illinois Valley and Umpqua Valley westward should shift
toward a westerly direction, while southeast winds diminish some in
the Rogue Valley and Cascade foothills.

Air Quality Alerts continue for all our Southern Oregon counties.
Zooming in a bit to the most impactful areas this morning, Roseburg
is being impacted from easterly winds ushering in smoke from the
French Creek Fire east of Roseburg. Smoke impacts will broaden and
become even more significant generally west of a line from Etna, CA
to Medford, OR to Diamond Lake. The HRRR smoke model suggests
hazardous smoke conditions really get going late this afternoon and
evening.

Please see the previous forecast discussion below for additional
details and a look into the future.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 09/18Z TAFs...The main impact will be smoke
reducing visibilities over locations west of the Cascades.  Look for
MVFR to IFR visibilities at the KRBG and KOTH TAF terminals with
local areas of LIFR.

Low level wind shear will occur this afternoon anytime KMFR has a
variable or north wind but the shear will likely be below the
threshold for LLWS. The confidence is low to moderate that KMFR will
mainly see southeast winds this afternoon but winds could turn back
to northerly late this afternoon or early evening. Only light smoke
for KMFR today but more smoke may come back into the area tonight.
This assumes no additional fire will start upstream of the airport.

No clouds expected through the TAF period as the air is near record
dry over the region.  However, the smoke will create its own
ceilings through the TAF period.

-Sandler

&&

.MARINE...Updated 900 AM PDT Wednesday 9 September 2020....Winds
will begin to lower over the marine waters, but seas will remain
chaotic through this morning. The highest seas will occur beyond 30
nm away from shore tonight into Wednesday. With the diminishing
gusty winds and elevated seas,  a small craft advisory will continue
through Wednesday morning.

Winds will lower and shift out of the south on Thursday and Friday.
Waves will follow course and lower down to around 4 to 5 feet
through the remainder of the week.

-Smith/miles

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 AM PDT Wednesday 9 September 2020...A
critical fire weather pattern will remain in place into Wednesday.
Moderate offshore flow will continue with very poor recoveries early
this morning through this afternoon. Compared to yesterday. Winds
may end up being little lighter. However winds will be gusty at
times, especially in the west to east facing canyons, like along
highway 138 towards Glide. Also gusty east to southeast winds are
still expected in the south end of the Rogue Valley. Despite winds
being slightly less than yesterday, conditions will remain critical
through this afternoon. Recoveries will be poor to very poor and
daytime humidities in the single digits to low teens through
Wednesday. In addition the Slater Fire remains fairly active and a
Red Flag Warning that was in effect for Fire Zone 280 has been
expanded north into the western portion of Fire Zone 621 based in
part on hotspots showing up on the emerging incident, fire
temperature and fire power indicated in most recent satellite
imagery which suggest the fire is spreading north into this area.
Details on all the Red Flag Warnings can be found at RFWMFR.

East of the Cascades will remain very dry, but winds will be lower
today compared to yesterday, therefore, we aren't expecting critical
conditions to be met.

Recoveries will remain poor to very poor tonight into Thursday
morning, however, winds will will be lower so red flag criteria is
not expected to be met. Offshore flow will still exist Thursday
morning, but it's expected to be weaker, thus winds are expected to
be lighter as well. During the day Thursday, the thermal trough is
expected to shift inland over the inland westside valleys. So
actually winds could end up diminishing during the day Thursday and
shift from east to southeast to northwest later Thursday afternoon
and early Thursday evening. Humidities will improve significantly
along the coast Thursday, but will remain very dry for inland
locations and recoveries will improve for all areas Thursday night
into Friday. No critical fire weather patterns are currently
expected through at least Saturday.

The upper ridge will shift east as an upper trough approaches from
the west on Sunday with cooler afternoon max temperatures and
humidities trending higher.

The operational models remain at odds regarding the timing,
strength, and any potential precipitation for early next week. The
ECMWF continues to be more aggressive and wetter compared to the GFS
however the GFS has trended stronger compared to this time
yesterday. Of note: several of the individual ensemble members show
the potential for measurable precipitation along the coast and an
increasing amount show something for inland westside locations.
-Petrucelli

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 444 AM PDT Wed Sep 9 2020/

UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion.

DISCUSSION...Near term (now through Friday morning)...Fire
weather concern remains critical as winds will continue to gust
from the east southeast. Raised winds along the ridges of southern
Jackson and Josephine Counties and N. Siskiyou county between 11
AM PDT and 2 PM PDT today, before winds finally begin to ease late
tonight. Moderate-to-high confidence winds in the southern Rogue
valley will remain gusty through the night. Further fire weather
related details can be found below.

Smoke impacts include reduced air quality and reduced visibility.
As winds lower, expect more smoke to remain locked in the valleys.

Temperatures cool slightly along the coast but valleys of
Josephine and eastern Curry County are borderline heat risk as
temperatures could reach well into the upper 90s. In Siskiyou and
Jackson County overnight lows in the 50s reduce heat risk, but
forecasted Max temperatures call for 100 degrees. Douglas County
Max temperatures will be on the mid 90s. These forecasted Max
Temperatures represent the high end MaxT with increasing smoke
amounts expected to reduce temperatures by roughly 5 degrees.
Either way, Max Temperatures remain elevated you will want to
continue to water and rest breaks to mitigate heat stress when
working in the afternoons, this will be very important for anyone
outside mid-day today.

Temperatures east of the Cascades in Klamath county, from Chemult
to Beatty, remain cold enough for freezing conditions, that can
cause harm to crops and pets not suited for the cold. There is
also this freeze potential near Fort Rock in Lake County.

Extended...(Friday afternoon through next week)...The region cools
through Tuesday of next week, with forecast highs in the high 70s
to upper 80s across the area. Winds lower and set up a pattern of
shifting from the NNW in the morning and afternoons, to easing
further and containing a southerly component during the overnight
period from Friday through Monday. We are also monitoring a wet
front approaching, most likely Tuesday, but there is significant
north/south variability in the heaviest rains with the front...
this is reflected having left PoPs on the low end. Also monitoring
thunderstorm potential with this front, mainly over the terrain
in and around Douglas county. -Miles

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for
     ORZ616>620-622-623.
     Dense Smoke Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for
     ORZ021-023>025.
     Red Flag Warning until 11 AM PDT this morning for ORZ615.
     Wind Advisory until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for ORZ026.
     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for ORZ621.

CA...Red Flag Warning until 11 AM PDT this morning for CAZ281.
     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for CAZ280.
     Red Flag Warning until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for CAZ282.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for
     PZZ370-376.