Red Flag Warning 19, NWS Medford, OR

860 
WWUS86 KMFR 041158
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
458 AM PDT Fri Sep 4 2020

.Gusty winds and low relative humidity are expected in the
afternoon and early evening hours today and Saturday.

ORZ624-625-051100-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0019.200904T2100Z-200905T0300Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.A.0019.200905T2100Z-200906T0300Z/
Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest-
South Central Oregon Desert including the BLM Land in Eastern Lake
and Western Harney Counties-
458 AM PDT Fri Sep 4 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 624 AND 625...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 624 AND 625...

* Impacts:  Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and high
fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new
and existing fires.

* Affected area: In South Central OR...Southeast and eastern part
  of Fire Weather Zones 624 including the Crane Fire and portions
  of Fire Weather Zone 625.

* Wind: Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* Humidity: 7 to 14 percent.

* One less spark, one less wildfire.

* View the hazard area in detail at:
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

$$

CAZ285-051100-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0019.200904T2100Z-200905T0300Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.A.0019.200905T2100Z-200906T0300Z/
Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley-
458 AM PDT Fri Sep 4 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 285...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 285...

* Impacts:  Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and high
fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new
and existing fires.

* Affected area: 
  In Northern CA...Most of Fire Weather Zone 285, 
  including the Cold Springs Fire.

* Wind: In Northern CA...Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 30
  mph.

* Humidity: 7 to 14 percent.

* One less spark, one less wildfire.

* View the hazard area in detail at:
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

$$

ORZ622-051100-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0019.200904T2100Z-200905T0300Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.A.0019.200905T2100Z-200906T0300Z/
Eastern Rogue Valley-
458 AM PDT Fri Sep 4 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 622...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 622...

* Impacts:  Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and high
fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new
and existing fires.

* Affected area: 
 In Southwest OR...Portions of Fire Weather Zone 622. This includes
the Cities of Medford, Central Point, White City, Eagle Point and
Ashland.

* Wind: Northwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

* Humidity: 10 to 14 percent.
* One less spark, one less wildfire.

* View the hazard area in detail at:
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

$$


Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford

325 
WWUS86 KMFR 042058
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
158 PM PDT Fri Sep 4 2020

.Gusty winds and low relative humidity are expected in the
afternoon and early evening hours today and Saturday. Monday, a
strong dry cold front will move into the area resulting in gusty
winds and low relative humidity east of the Cascades in the
afternoon, then along and west of the Cascades Monday night into
Tuesday evening. 

ORZ624-625-051200-
/O.UPG.KMFR.FW.A.0019.200905T2100Z-200906T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KMFR.FW.W.0020.200905T2100Z-200906T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KMFR.FW.A.0020.200907T1800Z-200908T0600Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0019.200904T2100Z-200905T0300Z/
Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest-
South Central Oregon Desert including the BLM Land in Eastern Lake
and Western Harney Counties-
158 PM PDT Fri Sep 4 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 624 AND
625...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 624 AND 625...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
624 AND 625...

The National Weather Service in Medford has upgraded the Fire
Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning...which is in effect from 2 PM
to 8 PM PDT Saturday. A new Fire Weather Watch has also been 
issued. This Fire Weather Watch is in effect from Monday morning 
through Monday evening. 

* Impacts: Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and high fire
  danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and
  existing fires.

* Affected area: In South Central OR...Southeast and eastern part
  of Fire Weather Zones 624 including the Crane Fire and portions
  of Fire Weather Zone 625. Monday afternoon and evening, all 
  areas.
 
* Wind: Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Monday 
  north 15 to 25 with gusts up to 35 mph. 

* Humidity: 7 to 14 percent. Monday 10 to 15 percent.

* One less spark, one less wildfire.

* View the hazard area in detail at:
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red
Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

CAZ285-051200-
/O.UPG.KMFR.FW.A.0019.200905T2100Z-200906T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KMFR.FW.W.0020.200905T2100Z-200906T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KMFR.FW.A.0020.200907T1800Z-200908T0600Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0019.200904T2100Z-200905T0300Z/
Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley-
158 PM PDT Fri Sep 4 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 285...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 285...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE
285...

The National Weather Service in Medford has upgraded the Fire
Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning...which is in effect from 2 PM
to 8 PM PDT Saturday. A new Fire Weather Watch has also been 
issued. This Fire Weather Watch is in effect from Monday morning 
through Monday evening. 

* Impacts: Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and high fire
  danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and
  existing fires.

* Affected area: In Northern CA...Most of Fire Weather Zone 285,
  including the Cold Springs Fire. Monday afternoon and evening, 
  all areas.

* Wind: Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Monday,
  north to northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph.

* Humidity: 7 to 14 percent. Monday, 10 to 15 percent.

* One less spark, one less wildfire.

* View the hazard area in detail at:
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

Precautionary/preparedness actions...
 
A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red
Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

ORZ622-051200-
/O.UPG.KMFR.FW.A.0019.200905T2100Z-200906T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KMFR.FW.W.0020.200905T2100Z-200906T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KMFR.FW.A.0020.200908T0600Z-200909T0500Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0019.200904T2100Z-200905T0300Z/
Eastern Rogue Valley-
158 PM PDT Fri Sep 4 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 622...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 622...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONE 622...

The National Weather Service in Medford has upgraded the Fire
Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning...which is in effect from 2 PM
to 8 PM PDT Saturday. A new Fire Weather Watch has also been 
issued. This Fire Weather Watch is in effect from Monday evening 
through Tuesday evening. 

* Impacts: Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and high fire
  danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and
  existing fires.

* Affected area: In Southwest OR...Portions of Fire Weather Zone
  622. This includes the Cities of Medford, Central Point, White
  City, Eagle Point and Ashland. Monday, all areas. 

* Wind: Northwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph. Monday east to
  northeast 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph. 

* Humidity: 10 to 15 percent. 

* View the hazard area in detail at:
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red
Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

CAZ284-051200-
/O.NEW.KMFR.FW.A.0020.200907T1800Z-200908T0600Z/
Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt
Shasta-
158 PM PDT Fri Sep 4 2020

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE
284...

The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Fire Weather
Watch...which is in effect from Monday morning through Monday
evening.

* Impacts: Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and high fire
  danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and
  existing fires.

* Affected area: In Northern CA... All of Fire Weather Zone 284.

* Wind: Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

* Humidity: 10 to 15 percent.

* View the hazard area in detail at:
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD 

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red
Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

ORZ616-617-620-621-623-051200-
/O.NEW.KMFR.FW.A.0020.200908T0600Z-200909T0500Z/
Umpqua Basin-Umpqua National Forest-
Western Rogue Basin including the Illinois Valley-
Siskiyou Mountains-Southern Oregon Cascades-
158 PM PDT Fri Sep 4 2020

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 616...617...620...621 AND 623...

The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Fire Weather
Watch...which is in effect from Monday evening through Tuesday
evening.

* Impacts:  Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and high
fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new
and existing fires.

* Affected area: All of Fire Zone....616. In Southwest OR all of Fire
  Zones...617...620...621...623.

* Wind: East to northeast 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.
  Winds are expected to be strongest on the mid slopes, ridges, 
  and exposed areas. 

* Humidity: 10 to 15 percent.

* View the hazard area in detail at:
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD 

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red
Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

CAZ280>282-051200-
/O.NEW.KMFR.FW.A.0020.200908T0600Z-200909T0500Z/
Western Klamath National Forest-
Central Siskiyou County Including Shasta Valley-Shasta-
Trinity National Forest in Siskiyou County-
158 PM PDT Fri Sep 4 2020

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 280...281 AND 282...

The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Fire Weather
Watch...which is in effect from Monday evening through Tuesday
evening.

* Impacts: Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and high fire
  danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and
  existing fires.

* Affected area: In Northern CA...All of Fire Weather Zones 
  280...281 and 282.

* Wind: East 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 30 mph, winds are
  expected to be strongest at the mid slopes, ridges and exposed
  areas. 

* Humidity: 10 to 15 percent.

* View the hazard area in detail at:
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD 

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red
Flag Warnings.

&&

$$


Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford

970 
WWUS86 KMFR 050314
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
814 PM PDT Fri Sep 4 2020


ORZ624-625-051515-
/O.EXP.KMFR.FW.W.0019.000000T0000Z-200905T0300Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0020.200905T2100Z-200906T0300Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.A.0020.200907T1800Z-200908T0600Z/
Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest-
South Central Oregon Desert including the BLM Land in Eastern Lake
and Western Harney Counties-
814 PM PDT Fri Sep 4 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM PDT
SATURDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
624 AND 625...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 624 AND 625...
...RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY HAS EXPIRED FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND 
WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 624 AND 625...

* Impacts: Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and high 
  fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new
  and existing fires.

* Affected area: In South Central OR...Southeast and eastern part
  of Fire Weather Zones 624 including the Crane Fire and portions
  of Fire Weather Zone 625. Monday afternoon and evening, all 
  areas.

* Wind: Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Monday 
  north 15 to 25 with gusts up to 35 mph.

* Humidity: 7 to 14 percent. Monday 10 to 15 percent.

* One less spark, one less wildfire.

* View the hazard area in detail at:
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Strong winds and low relative humidities will cause fires to
spread very rapidly.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red
Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

CAZ285-051515-
/O.EXP.KMFR.FW.W.0019.000000T0000Z-200905T0300Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0020.200905T2100Z-200906T0300Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.A.0020.200907T1800Z-200908T0600Z/
Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley-
814 PM PDT Fri Sep 4 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM PDT
SATURDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE
285...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 285...
...RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY HAS EXPIRED FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND 
WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 285...

* Impacts: Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and high 
  fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new
  and existing fires.

* Affected area: In Northern CA...Most of Fire Weather Zone 285,
  including the Cold Springs Fire. Monday afternoon and evening,
  all areas.

* Wind: Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Monday, 
  north to northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph.

* Humidity: 7 to 14 percent. Monday, 10 to 15 percent.

* One less spark, one less wildfire.

* View the hazard area in detail at:
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Strong winds and low relative humidities will cause fires to
spread very rapidly.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red
Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

ORZ622-051515-
/O.EXP.KMFR.FW.W.0019.000000T0000Z-200905T0300Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0020.200905T2100Z-200906T0300Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.A.0020.200908T0600Z-200909T0500Z/
Eastern Rogue Valley-
814 PM PDT Fri Sep 4 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM PDT
SATURDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE
622...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 622...
...RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY HAS EXPIRED FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND 
WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 622...

* Impacts: Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and high 
  fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new
  and existing fires.

* Affected area: In Southwest OR...Portions of Fire Weather Zone
  622. This includes the Cities of Medford, Central Point, White
  City, Eagle Point and Ashland. Monday, all areas. 

* Wind: Northwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph. Monday east 
  to northeast 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

* Humidity: 10 to 15 percent.

* View the hazard area in detail at:
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Strong winds and low relative humidities will cause fires to
spread very rapidly.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red
Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

CAZ284-051515-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.A.0020.200907T1800Z-200908T0600Z/
Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt
Shasta-
814 PM PDT Fri Sep 4 2020

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 284...

* Impacts:  Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and high
fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new
and existing fires.

* Affected area: In Northern CA... All of Fire Weather Zone 284.

* Wind: Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

* Humidity: 10 to 15 percent.

* View the hazard area in detail at:
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

$$

ORZ616-617-620-621-623-051515-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.A.0020.200908T0600Z-200909T0500Z/
Umpqua Basin-Umpqua National Forest-
Western Rogue Basin including the Illinois Valley-
Siskiyou Mountains-Southern Oregon Cascades-
814 PM PDT Fri Sep 4 2020

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 616...617...620...621 AND 623...

* Impacts: Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and high 
  fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new
  and existing fires.

* Affected area: All of Fire Zone....616. In Southwest OR all of
  Fire Zones...617...620...621...623. 

* Wind: East to northeast 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. 
  Winds are expected to be strongest on the mid slopes, ridges, and
  exposed areas.

* Humidity: 10 to 15 percent.

* View the hazard area in detail at:
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

$$

CAZ280>282-051515-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.A.0020.200908T0600Z-200909T0500Z/
Western Klamath National Forest-
Central Siskiyou County Including Shasta Valley-Shasta-
Trinity National Forest in Siskiyou County-
814 PM PDT Fri Sep 4 2020

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 280...281 AND 282...

* Impacts: Strong, gusty wind with low relative humidity and high 
  fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new
  and existing fires.

* Affected area: In Northern CA...All of Fire Weather Zones 
  280...281 and 282.

* Wind: East 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 30 mph, winds are 
  expected to be strongest at the mid slopes, ridges and exposed 
  areas.

* Humidity: 10 to 15 percent.

* View the hazard area in detail at:
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

$$


Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1051 AM PDT Thu Sep 3 2020

.UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion.

&&

./Issued 939 AM PDT Thu Sep 3 2020/

DISCUSSION...As of 9:30 AM...Clear skies were present across the
area...except right along the coast...where patchy coastal stratus
was observed. The forecast area has had a nice break from wildfire
smoke over the past few days...but that looks to come to an end
later today into tomorrow as smoke pushes north into northern CA
and southern OR.

Temperatures this morning cooled to near normal to slightly above
normal temperatures for the beginning of September. The forecast
calls for temperatures to warm to between 7 to 10 degrees above
normal for the daytime high temperatures. The streak for 100
degree days in Medford is forecast to continue today...making it
day 3 in our current streak. If we hit 5 or more days in a row of
100 or more...we will set a record for longest streak in
September. However...Friday and Saturday will be a close
call...with the forecast at 99 degrees.

Otherwise...current forecast looks right on track with continued
hot and dry into early next week.

-Riley

AVIATION...For the 03/18Z TAFs...VFR is prevailing and will
continue for most of southern Oregon and northern California into
Friday morning. The significant exception is over the coastal
waters where IFR conditions are being observed and are likely to
largely persist through the period beyond 5 NM of shore (with only
some partial breaks during this afternoon). Coastal valleys will
observe a few hours of VFR conditions during this TAF period
before IFR conditions return later today. -Miles

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 318 AM PDT Thu Sep 3 2020/

DISCUSSION...In the short term, there is little change expected
through the weekend, with ridging in control and hot temperatures
the primary concern. There is a bit of relief possible, but it
will come at a price. By Friday, the ridge centered over the
southwestern US will have moved just enough to the east to allow a
weak shortwave to pass over the forecast area. This will allow
for a marine push into the coastal range valleys, dropping
temperatures in these locations by 5 to 10 degrees. There is a
good chance the push will also make it to the Umpqua Basin, and
while temperatures will be cool enough to allow the Heat Advisory
there to lapse, it will still be rather warm, with highs around
90. The price will be paid by locations to the east and southeast,
namely Klamath, Lake, Modoc, and central Siskiyou County, where
south to southwest winds are expected to become gusty during the
afternoon and evening. With the dry air in place, this is likely
to produce a number of fire weather concerns. These will be
elaborated on further in the fire discussion below.

The ridge will rebound quickly, rebuilding Saturday into Sunday
and regaining its tight grip over the region. Temperatures may be
a bit cooler overall on Saturday (if there is a day that will
break the streak of triple digit highs in Medford, Saturday is the
most likely one), but heat is expected to return in force Sunday
and Monday as the thermal trough recovers from the disruption of
the shortwave.

There is a good deal of uncertainty in the forecast beginning
Monday Night and Tuesday, with models across the board dividing
into two camps. The first group of solutions is dominated by the
GFS/GEFS, which keeps the ridge in control over the western US,
shunting an upper level trough well to the east over the Rockies
and Central Plains, thereby keeping the area hot through the
remainder of the term. The second group is dominated by the ECMWF
and its ensemble, which retrograde the ridge to the west, allowing
the trough to dig south just east of the Cascades. This second
solution would produce cooler temperatures over the East Side,
but would also result in strong east winds over the area, keeping
the West Side hot and producing very dry conditions across the
entire area. Heat would thereby continue to be the primary weather
concern for the West Side, with fire weather concerns across the
region (see fire discussion below for more on this as well).

With more and more ensemble model members across both the GFS and
ECMWF trending towards the second scenario, the forecast has been
adjusted in that direction. The end result is that Heat Advisories
and Excessive Heat Warnings are looking more likely for much of
next week, with several daily high temperature records under risk
of being broken. -BPN

MARINE...Updated 900 AM PDT Thursday 3 September 2020....High
pressure will persist into Saturday morning with areas of fog,
diminishing seas, and weak southerly winds. North winds then return
Saturday and increase into Sunday evening with seas likely becoming
steep, possibly very steep in the outer waters south of Cape Blanco.

Forecast confidence is high through Saturday and moderate through
Monday, then uncertainty increases sharply. As such, there is now
higher confidence in the strengthening northerly winds late Saturday
into Sunday with the strongest winds south of Cape Blanco reaching
advisory strength. Also, most likely, there will be only a slight
improvement in conditions on Monday. Weaker winds and diminishing
seas may follow but the highest probability in the long term is for
an episode of chaotic seas.  -DW/Petrucelli

FIRE WEATHER...Updated 300 AM PDT Thursday 3 September
2020...Dry and hot weather will continue for interior locations
for the next 7-10 days with zero chance of thunderstorms or any
precipitation whatsoever.

The main concern in the short term will be gusty winds and low
relative humidity Friday afternoon and evening and possibly again
Saturday afternoon and evening east of the Cascades. Although winds
Saturday may not be as strong.

There's good agreement winds aloft will increase on Friday. 700 mb
winds are expected to increase to around 20 kts and they are even
stronger near 600 mb (between 25 and 35 kts) east of the Cascades.
At the same time, the pressure gradient tightens up Friday
afternoon. Models soundings suggest the stronger winds near 600 mb
could mix down near the surface. Given the above mentioned
reasoning, and how low the RH's are expected to be Friday afternoon.
It won't take as much wind for conditions to reach critical levels.
Therefore, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued from Friday
afternoon into Friday evening. Please see RFWMFR for more details.

One thing of note: Gusty winds are possible west of the Cascades,
specifically in the Rogue Valley Friday afternoon and early Friday
evening and there's a chance the combination of winds and low
relative humidity could reach Red Flag criteria, but it may only be
for an hour or two and confidence is not high enough at this time to
issue anything for there. We will revisit this over the coming
shifts.

Critical conditions are possible again Saturday afternoon east of
the Cascades, but winds may not be as strong mainly due to model
soundings showing a lower mixing height, weak cap and slightly
weaker winds aloft. However, relative humidities Saturday will be
similar to Friday, so this is something that we'll need to keep a
close watch on. The pattern of the next 7-10 days will be dominated
by a strong upper ridge that will remained locked in over our area
through at least the middle of next week.

The net result will be humidities trending lower and temperatures
trending higher through the period. Triple digit readings are likely
for interior westside valley locations through at least the middle
of next week as the hot air and high pressure settle in. Overnight
recoveries will gradually worsen, eventually becoming moderate in
the valleys and poor over the ridges.

There is increasing concern regarding a significant east wind event
next week. Many model/ensemble members are beginning to trend
towards what the operational ECWMF depicted yesterday: an upper
level trough (inside slider) moving south into northeast Oregon
Monday with a dry cold front moving into the area. If this scenario
plays out, then we could be dealing with gusty north to northwest
winds and low relative humidity Monday afternoon, followed by steady
east winds across the entire area Tuesday into Wednesday.
Temperatures would remain quite hot west of the Cascades, but would
trend cooler on the East Side. However, humidities would suffer
greatly, dropping to minimums in the single digits to low teens
across nearly the entire area, and recoveries becoming poor for a
significant portions of the region. Although this scenario is far
from certain, it is appearing more likely with each forecast cycle.
We will be watching this event closely over the next several days,
and will update the forecast as necessary. -BPN/Petrucelli

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for ORZ624-625.
     Heat Advisory until 5 PM PDT Saturday for ORZ024-026.
     Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for ORZ023-025.

CA...Heat Advisory until 5 PM PDT Saturday for CAZ080-081.
     Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for CAZ285.

Pacific Coastal Waters...None.