Red Flag Warning 16, NWS Medford, OR

244 
WWUS86 KMFR 232004
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
104 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2020

...Strong, gusty winds and low relative humidity will increase the
risk of spread of new and existing wildfires this afternoon and 
evening...

...Isolated thunderstorms with little or no rainfall late tonight 
through Monday evening...

CAZ280>282-241215-
/O.EXA.KMFR.FW.W.0016.200824T0900Z-200825T0600Z/
Western Klamath National Forest-
Central Siskiyou County Including Shasta Valley-Shasta-
Trinity National Forest in Siskiyou County-
104 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 280...
281 AND 282...

The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Red Flag
Warning...which is in effect from 2 AM to 11 PM PDT Monday.

* Impacts: Lightning and high fire danger could result in new fire
  starts late tonight through Monday evening. Gusty thunderstorm 
  winds could contribute to fire spread.

* Affected area: 
  In Northern CA...Fire Weather Zones 280...281 and 282.

* Thunderstorms: Isolated to occasional scattered storms are
  expected late tonight through Monday evening. Those storms that 
  occur during the late night and morning hours will feature little
  rain, but could contain gusty outflows of 40 to 50 mph.

* Lightning Activity Level: Mostly 2, but could be 6 overnight 
  into Monday morning.

* View the hazard area in detail at:
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Abundant lightning on existing very dry fuels could cause numerous
new fire ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow winds could also
create extreme fire growth potential.

$$

ORZ624-241215-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0015.200823T2100Z-200824T0300Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0016.200824T0900Z-200825T0600Z/
Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest-
104 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 624...

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM PDT
MONDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE
624...

* Impacts: Strong, gusty winds with low relative humidity and high
  fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new
  and existing fires this afternoon and evening. Lightning and 
  high fire danger could result in new fire starts late tonight 
  through Monday evening. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute
  to fire spread.

* Affected area: 
  In South Central OR...Fire Weather Zone 624.

* Wind: Southwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

* Humidity: As low as 11 percent.

* Haines Index: 5 to 6 (Moderate to High) this afternoon and
  evening.

* Thunderstorms: Isolated to occasional scattered thunderstorms are
  expected late tonight through Monday evening. Those storms that 
  occur during the late night and morning hours will feature little
  rain, but could contain gusty outflows of 40 to 50 mph.

* Lightning Activity Level: Mostly 2 but could be 6 overnight or 
  Monday morning.

* View the hazard area in detail at:
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

* Strong winds and low relative humidities will cause fires to
  spread very rapidly.

* Abundant lightning on existing very dry fuels could cause numerous
  new fire ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow winds could also 
  create extreme fire growth potential.

$$

CAZ285-241215-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0015.200823T2100Z-200824T0300Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0016.200824T0900Z-200825T0600Z/
Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley-
104 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 285...

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM PDT
MONDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE
285...

* Impacts: Strong, gusty winds with low relative humidity and high
  fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new
  and existing fires this afternoon and evening. Lightning and 
  high fire danger could result in new fire starts late tonight 
  through Monday evening. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute
  to fire spread.

* Affected area: 
  In Northern CA...Fire Weather Zone 285.

* Wind: Southwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* Humidity: As low as 9 percent.

* Thunderstorms: Isolated to occasional scattered thunderstorms are
  expected late tonight through Monday evening. Those storms that 
  occur during the late night and morning hours will feature little
  rain, but could contain gusty outflows of 40 to 50 mph.

* Lightning Activity Level: Mostly 2 but could be 6 overnight into
  Monday morning.

* View the hazard area in detail at:
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

* Strong winds and low relative humidities will cause fires to
  spread very rapidly.

* Abundant lightning on existing very dry fuels could cause numerous
  new fire ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow winds could also 
  create extreme fire growth potential.

$$

CAZ284-ORZ625-241215-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0016.200824T0900Z-200825T0600Z/
Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt
Shasta-
South Central Oregon Desert including the BLM Land in Eastern Lake
and Western Harney Counties-
104 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM PDT
MONDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
284 AND 625...

* Impacts: Lightning and high fire danger will likely result in 
  new fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to 
  fire spread. Despite rainfall, initial attack resources could be 
  overwhelmed and holdover fires are possible.

* Affected area: 
  In Northern CA Fire Zone....284.
  In South Central OR Fire Zone....625.

* Thunderstorms: Isolated to occasional scattered thunderstorms are
  expected late tonight through Monday evening. Those storms that 
  occur during the late night and morning hours will feature little
  rain, but could contain gusty outflows of 40 to 50 mph.

* Lightning Activity Level: Mostly 2 but could be 6 overnight into
  Monday morning.

* View the hazard area in detail at:
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

* Abundant lightning on existing very dry fuels could cause numerous
  new fire ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow winds could also 
  create extreme fire growth potential.

$$


Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford

979 
WWUS86 KMFR 232011 CCA
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Medford OR
111 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2020

...Strong, gusty winds and low relative humidity will increase the
risk of spread of new and existing wildfires this afternoon and 
evening...

...Isolated thunderstorms with little or no rainfall late tonight 
through Monday evening...

CAZ280>282-241215-
/O.EXA.KMFR.FW.W.0016.200824T0900Z-200825T0600Z/
Western Klamath National Forest-
Central Siskiyou County Including Shasta Valley-Shasta-
Trinity National Forest in Siskiyou County-
111 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 280...
281 AND 282...

The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Red Flag
Warning...which is in effect from 2 AM to 11 PM PDT Monday.

* Impacts: Lightning and high fire danger could result in new fire
  starts late tonight through Monday evening. Gusty thunderstorm 
  winds could contribute to fire spread.

* Affected area: 
  In Northern CA...Fire Weather Zones 280...281 and 282.

* Thunderstorms: Isolated to occasional scattered storms are
  expected late tonight through Monday evening. Those storms that 
  occur during the late night and morning hours will feature little
  rain, but could contain gusty outflows of 40 to 50 mph.

* Lightning Activity Level: Mostly 2, but could be 6 overnight 
  into Monday morning.

* View the hazard area in detail at:
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Abundant lightning on existing very dry fuels could cause numerous
new fire ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow winds could also
create extreme fire growth potential.

$$

ORZ624-241215-
/O.COR.KMFR.FW.W.0015.200823T2100Z-200824T0300Z/
/O.COR.KMFR.FW.W.0016.200824T0900Z-200825T0600Z/
Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest-
111 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 624 AND
FOR HAINES INDEX OF 6 ON THE CRANE WILDFIRE...

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM PDT
MONDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE
624...

* Impacts: Strong, gusty winds with low relative humidity and high
  fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new
  and existing fires this afternoon and evening. Lightning and 
  high fire danger could result in new fire starts late tonight 
  through Monday evening. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute
  to fire spread.

* Affected area: 
  In South Central OR...Fire Weather Zone 624.

* Wind: Southwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

* Humidity: As low as 11 percent.

* Haines Index: 5 to 6 (Moderate to High) this afternoon and
  evening. 

* Thunderstorms: Isolated to occasional scattered thunderstorms are
  expected late tonight through Monday evening. Those storms that 
  occur during the late night and morning hours will feature little
  rain, but could contain gusty outflows of 40 to 50 mph.

* Lightning Activity Level: Mostly 2 but could be 6 overnight or 
  Monday morning.

* View the hazard area in detail at:
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

* Strong winds and low relative humidities will cause fires to
  spread very rapidly.

* Abundant lightning on existing very dry fuels could cause numerous
  new fire ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow winds could also 
  create extreme fire growth potential.

$$

CAZ285-241215-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0015.200823T2100Z-200824T0300Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0016.200824T0900Z-200825T0600Z/
Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley-
111 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 285...

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM PDT
MONDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE
285...

* Impacts: Strong, gusty winds with low relative humidity and high
  fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new
  and existing fires this afternoon and evening. Lightning and 
  high fire danger could result in new fire starts late tonight 
  through Monday evening. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute
  to fire spread.

* Affected area: 
  In Northern CA...Fire Weather Zone 285.

* Wind: Southwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* Humidity: As low as 9 percent.

* Thunderstorms: Isolated to occasional scattered thunderstorms are
  expected late tonight through Monday evening. Those storms that 
  occur during the late night and morning hours will feature little
  rain, but could contain gusty outflows of 40 to 50 mph.

* Lightning Activity Level: Mostly 2 but could be 6 overnight into
  Monday morning.

* View the hazard area in detail at:
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

* Strong winds and low relative humidities will cause fires to
  spread very rapidly.

* Abundant lightning on existing very dry fuels could cause numerous
  new fire ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow winds could also 
  create extreme fire growth potential.

$$

CAZ284-ORZ625-241215-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0016.200824T0900Z-200825T0600Z/
Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt
Shasta-
South Central Oregon Desert including the BLM Land in Eastern Lake
and Western Harney Counties-
111 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM PDT
MONDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
284 AND 625...

* Impacts: Lightning and high fire danger will likely result in 
  new fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to 
  fire spread. Despite rainfall, initial attack resources could be 
  overwhelmed and holdover fires are possible.

* Affected area: 
  In Northern CA Fire Zone....284.
  In South Central OR Fire Zone....625.

* Thunderstorms: Isolated to occasional scattered thunderstorms are
  expected late tonight through Monday evening. Those storms that 
  occur during the late night and morning hours will feature little
  rain, but could contain gusty outflows of 40 to 50 mph.

* Lightning Activity Level: Mostly 2 but could be 6 overnight into
  Monday morning.

* View the hazard area in detail at:
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

* Abundant lightning on existing very dry fuels could cause numerous
  new fire ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow winds could also 
  create extreme fire growth potential.

$$


Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford

924 
WWUS86 KMFR 240241
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
741 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2020

...Isolated thunderstorms with little or no rainfall late tonight
through Monday evening...

ORZ624-241445-
/O.EXP.KMFR.FW.W.0015.000000T0000Z-200824T0300Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0016.200824T0900Z-200825T0600Z/
Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest-
741 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM PDT
MONDAY FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE
624...

...THE OTHER RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 624...

* Impacts:  Dry thunderstorms and high fire danger will likely
  result in new fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could
  contribute to fire spread. Initial attack resources could be
  overwhelmed and holdover fires are possible.

* Affected area: 
  In South Central OR...Fire Weather Zone 624.

* Thunderstorms: Isolated to occasional scattered thunderstorms
  are expected late tonight through Monday evening. Those storms
  that occur during the late night and morning hours will feature
  little rain, but could contain gusty outflows of 40 to 50 mph.

* Lightning Activity Level: Mostly 2 but could be 6 overnight or
  Monday morning.

* View the hazard area in detail at:
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

* Strong winds and low relative humidities will cause fires to
  spread very rapidly.


&&

$$

CAZ285-241445-
/O.EXP.KMFR.FW.W.0015.000000T0000Z-200824T0300Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0016.200824T0900Z-200825T0600Z/
Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley-
741 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM PDT
MONDAY FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE
285...

...THE OTHER RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 285...

* Impacts:  Dry thunderstorms and high fire danger will likely
  result in new fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could
  contribute to fire spread. Initial attack resources could be
  overwhelmed and holdover fires are possible.

* Affected area: 
  In Northern CA...Fire Weather Zone 285.

* Thunderstorms: Isolated to occasional scattered thunderstorms
  are expected late tonight through Monday evening. Those storms
  that occur during the late night and morning hours will feature
  little rain, but could contain gusty outflows of 40 to 50 mph.

* Lightning Activity Level: Mostly 2 but could be 6 overnight into
  Monday morning.

* View the hazard area in detail at:
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD


* Abundant lightning on existing very dry fuels could cause numerous
  new fire ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow winds could also 
  create extreme fire growth potential.

&&

$$

CAZ280>282-284-ORZ625-241445-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0016.200824T0900Z-200825T0600Z/
Western Klamath National Forest-
Central Siskiyou County Including Shasta Valley-Shasta-
Trinity National Forest in Siskiyou County-
Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt
Shasta-
South Central Oregon Desert including the BLM Land in Eastern Lake
and Western Harney Counties-
741 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM PDT
MONDAY FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
280...281...282...284 AND 625...

* Impacts:  Dry thunderstorms and high fire danger will likely
result in new fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could
contribute to fire spread. Initial attack resources could be
overwhelmed and holdover fires are possible.

* Affected area: 
  In Northern CA Fire Zones...280...281...282...284.
  In South Central OR Fire Zone....625.

* Thunderstorms: Isolated to occasional scattered thunderstorms
  are expected late tonight through Monday evening. Those storms
  that occur during the late night and morning hours will feature
  little rain, but could contain gusty outflows of 40 to 50 mph.

* Lightning Activity Level: Mostly 2 but could be 6 overnight into
Monday morning.

* View the hazard area in detail at:
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

* Abundant lightning on existing very dry fuels could cause
numerous new fire ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow winds could
also create extreme fire growth potential.

$$


Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford

781 
WWUS86 KMFR 240834
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
134 AM PDT Mon Aug 24 2020

...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms with little or no rainfall 
today through this evening...

.Isolated thunderstorms will arrive from the south this morning and
lift northward across the area today. Initially, these storms will
have very little rainfall, but should become wetter with time. 
Additional storms are expected to develop this afternoon and 
evening. Any lightning at all on the extremely dry fuels will 
bring an increased risk for new fire ignitions. Some storms will 
also contain gusty outflows and this may contribute to fire spread.

ORZ623-250000-
/O.EXA.KMFR.FW.W.0016.200824T0900Z-200825T0600Z/
Southern Oregon Cascades-
134 AM PDT Mon Aug 24 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 623...

The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Red Flag
Warning...which is in effect until 11 PM PDT this evening.

* Impacts: Lightning and high fire danger will likely result in new 
  fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire 
  spread. Despite rainfall, initial attack resources could be 
  overwhelmed and holdover fires are possible.

* Affected area:  
  In Southwest OR...Fire Weather Zone 623.

* Thunderstorms: Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are
  expected today through this evening. Storms that occur this 
  morning will feature little or no rain, but could contain gusty 
  outflows of 40 to 50 mph. Storms should become wetter with time.

* Lightning Activity Level: Mostly 2 to 3, but could be 6 this
  morning. 

* View the hazard area in detail at:
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

* Abundant lightning on existing very dry fuels could cause numerous
  new fire ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow winds could also 
  create extreme fire growth potential. 

&&

$$

CAZ280>282-284-285-ORZ624-625-250000-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0016.200824T0900Z-200825T0600Z/
Western Klamath National Forest-
Central Siskiyou County Including Shasta Valley-Shasta-
Trinity National Forest in Siskiyou County-
Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt
Shasta-Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley-
Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest-
South Central Oregon Desert including the BLM Land in Eastern Lake
and Western Harney Counties-
134 AM PDT Mon Aug 24 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 280...
281...282...AND 284 IN CALIFORNIA AND FIRE WEATHER ZONES 624 AND 
625 IN OREGON...

* Impacts: Lightning and high fire danger will likely result in new
  fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire 
  spread. Despite rainfall, initial attack resources could be 
  overwhelmed and holdover fires are possible.

* Affected area: 
  In Northern CA Fire Zones...280...281...282...284...285.
  In South Central OR Fire Zones...624...625.

* Thunderstorms: Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are
  expected today through this evening. Storms that occur this 
  morning will feature little or no rain, but could contain gusty 
  outflows of 40 to 50 mph. Storms should become wetter with time.

* Lightning Activity Level: Mostly 2 to 3, but could be 6 this
  morning. 

* View the hazard area in detail at:
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

* Abundant lightning on existing very dry fuels could cause numerous
  new fire ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow winds could also 
  create extreme fire growth potential.

$$

MAS

Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford

445 
WWUS86 KMFR 241939
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
1239 PM PDT Mon Aug 24 2020

CAZ280>282-ORZ623-242045-
/O.CAN.KMFR.FW.W.0016.000000T0000Z-200825T0600Z/
Western Klamath National Forest-
Central Siskiyou County Including Shasta Valley-Shasta-
Trinity National Forest in Siskiyou County-
Southern Oregon Cascades-
1239 PM PDT Mon Aug 24 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY
FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 280...281...282 AND 623...

The National Weather Service in Medford has cancelled the Red Flag
Warning.

There is still a slight chance for thunderstorms this afternoon, 
but we are not expecting abundant lightning.

$$

CAZ284-285-ORZ624-625-250600-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0016.000000T0000Z-200825T0600Z/
Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt
Shasta-Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley-
Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest-
South Central Oregon Desert including the BLM Land in Eastern Lake
and Western Harney Counties-
1239 PM PDT Mon Aug 24 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 284...
285...624 AND 625...

* Impacts: Lightning and high fire danger will likely result in new
  fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire 
  spread. Despite rainfall, initial attack resources could be 
  overwhelmed and holdover fires are possible.

* Affected area: 
  In Northern CA Fire Zones...Northeastern 284...285. In South 
  Central OR Fire Zones...624...625.

* Thunderstorms: Isolated thunderstorms are expected today through
  this evening. 

* Lightning Activity Level: 2.

* View the hazard area in detail at:
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

* Abundant lightning on existing very dry fuels could cause numerous
  new fire ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow winds could also 
  create extreme fire growth potential.

$$


Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford

050 
WWUS86 KMFR 250555
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
1055 PM PDT Mon Aug 24 2020

CAZ284-285-ORZ624-625-250700-
/O.EXP.KMFR.FW.W.0016.000000T0000Z-200825T0600Z/
Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt
Shasta-Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley-
Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest-
South Central Oregon Desert including the BLM Land in Eastern Lake
and Western Harney Counties-
1055 PM PDT Mon Aug 24 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR 
ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 
284...285...624 AND 625...

Isolated storms are still possible tonight over southern Oregon 
and northern California.

$$


Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
903 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2020

.UPDATE...

The forecast remains on track this evening with a lot of elevated
smoke and haze making it's way into southern Oregon this evening.
The latest suite of 18z guidance suggests that a 10 to 20 percent
chance of thunderstorms is pretty realistic Sunday night into
Monday morning for northern California and south central Oregon.
The area to watch will be over our fire weather watch. Higher
resolution models are picking out that location for storm activity
around 11 am on Monday.

Smith

&&

.DISCUSSION.../Issued 414 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2020/

Observations made by us outside and by satellite this afternoon
suggest there is a fair amount of smoke to the south and west.
Visibility restrictions from the smoke in Lakeview and Alturas has
improved compared to yesterday. However, some of those visibility
observations may begin to drop as fresh smoke from the August
Complex moves into Oregon.

Other than smoke, we'll be watching temperatures tomorrow as highs
push into the upper 90's for many of the southern valleys west of
the Cascades. This will be the warmest day in the foreseeable
future as arriving moisture Sunday through next week should create
some clouds cover and limit the daytime heating. Also, 500 mb
heights will fall a bit next week suggesting high pressure will
loosen it's grip on southern Oregon and northern California.

As for thunderstorm potential on Sunday night into Tuesday, we're
still going with a 10 to 20 percent chance for thunderstorms over
northern California and south central Oregon. Confidence is still
low on thunderstorms for a few reasons. One is that the moisture
layer seems very shallow at times and centered right around 700
mb. Ideally, we would like to see the moisture distributed
through a greater depth in the atmosphere with cooler temperatures
aloft. Also, there isn't a strong low associated with the storm
potential. It's kind of like this messy southwest flow with the
deep low well offshore.

Finally, statistical thunderstorm probabilities from the models
are around 5 to 10 percent Sunday night into Sunday morning. Keep
in mind that this is raw output from the models, not our official
forecast. In our bigger lightning outbreaks these values would be
much higher, roughly 40 to 50 percent. Overall, we will keep the
10 to 20 percent chance for storms going, yet those probabilities
could be lowered in future updates. If storms do form, they'll
favor the drier side and remain isolated in our neck of the woods.

Beyond Tuesday, ensemble data suggests that the deep low will move
onshore. Some of that low will cutoff from the flow aloft and end
up around central California Wednesday through Friday. Ideally,
this should keep storm activity down in California. However, the
latest GFS does in fact initiate convection east of the Cascades
on Wednesday evening, so the potential for storms is still there
on Wednesday.

For those hoping for some cooler weather, that appears to be on
the way next weekend. Ensembles are predicting highs in the upper
80's for 30th and 31st in Medford.

Smith

&&

.AVIATION...For the 23/00Z TAFs...Over the coastal waters and into
the coastal valleys...VFR conditions, with strong north winds along
the coastline and over the coastal waters especially south of Cape
Blanco. Areas of IFR in low clouds and fog are expected to return to
the coast tonight, especially for areas from Cape Blanco northward.

West of Cascades...VFR conditions are expected to remain through
the next 24 hours.

N. Cal. & East of Cascades...Over Siskiyou and Modoc Counties in
northern California and Klamath and Lake County in Oregon, wildfire
smoke will result in areas of MVFR vsbys through the TAF period.

-Miles/Sven

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Saturday 22 August 2020....Gusty
north winds and steep to very steep seas will continue into next
week. Coastal marine stratus and fog is expected again Sunday
morning, closest to shore north of Cape Blanco and near Brookings.
Strongest winds and highest seas will affect the waters south of
Cape Blanco with very steep seas likely beyond 5 nm from shore
from Gold Beach south and small craft advisory conditions
elsewhere. These conditions will continue into next week. Winds
may increase to gale force across portions of the waters south of
Cape Blanco beginning Monday afternoon.

-Miles

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 PM PDT Saturday 22 August
2020...Current temperatures are a few degrees lower than 24 hours
ago, and humidity is trending a bit higher than yesterday. This
will change over the next 24 hours as the air mass dries and
warms. Winds aloft and the pressure gradient increase Sunday, and
with the drying air mass, we expect Red Flag Warning conditions to
impact Fire Weather Zone 285 and portions of Fire Weather Zone
624. Elsewhere, breezy and dry conditions are expected. The hot-
dry-windy index (hdwindex.org) peaks Sunday for most of the area,
and then decreases some through the rest of the week. This simply
means that Sunday will feature the most significant combination of
heat, winds, and dryness for the next 6 days or so. Haines Index
values Sunday afternoon will be in the 5-6 range east of the
Cascades, an indication of a dry and unstable air mass.

Sunday night moisture from the remnants of Tropical Cyclone
Genevieve will make its way south to north towards the forecast
area. By late Sunday night or early Monday morning enough moisture
and trigger could combine with some instability to generate
thunderstorms in the Modoc/Southern Lake County area. Any
thunderstorms on the leading edge of this moisture will likely
feature little rainfall. Therefore, we're maintaining a Fire Weather
Watch for that area. Farther to the north and west, some lightning
is possible too, but its less likely, so we have slight chance
(about 15%) of storms there. Moisture is thinner towards the
Cascades and Siskiyou County, and the trigger doesn't look as
substantial. The more typical, afternoon heating-type storms are
possible Monday afternoon, and these will be focused east of the
Cascades. An additional impulse from the south arrives Monday night
into Tuesday morning, and this could bring enough ingredients for
storms to form mainly over Northern California and perhaps Southern
Oregon. Conditions are only marginal for storms to form, so we
maintain a slight chance for storms in these areas. Finally,
afternoon storms are again possible east of the Cascades Tuesday
afternoon.

The moisture lingers into Wednesday, mainly from the Siskiyous
southward and Cascades eastward, and we'll be keeping an eye on this
for yet more thunderstorm chances.

To sum up the thunderstorm chances for our forecast area per the
latest data, we're not expecting abundant lightning/scattered
thunderstorms for much if any of the forecast area. However, the
best chances for storms continue where we maintain the Fire Weather
Watch area in Modoc and Southern Lake Counties...and we can't rule
out isolated thunderstorms for areas generally from the Kalmiopsis
eastward.

Keene

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM to 8 PM PDT Sunday for ORZ624.
     Fire Weather Watch from late Sunday night through Tuesday
     afternoon for ORZ624.
     Fire Weather Watch from late Sunday night through Tuesday
     afternoon for ORZ625.

CA...Fire Weather Watch from late Sunday night through Tuesday
     afternoon for CAZ285.
     Fire Weather Watch from late Sunday night through Tuesday
     afternoon for CAZ284.
     Red Flag Warning from 2 PM to 8 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ285.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Tuesday for
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     Gale Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning for
     PZZ356-376.
     Hazardous Seas Warning until 2 PM PDT Monday for PZZ356-376.