Alert archive / Oregon / Red Flag Warnings in 2020
Red Flag Warning 15, NWS Medford, OR
NWS Medford, OR issued this red flag warning at Aug 22, 2020, 1:35 AM PDT for Klamath County, Lake County, Oregon; Modoc County, California. It took effect at Aug 23, 2020, 2:00 PM PDT. It was in force for 6 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 22, 2020, 1:35 AM PDT (08:35 UTC)
- In effect from
- Aug 23, 2020, 2:00 PM PDT
- Expired
- Aug 23, 2020, 8:00 PM PDT
- In force
- 6 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Medford, OR
Counties Modoc County, CA, Klamath County, OR, Lake County, OR
The radar
The Medford radar (KMAX), 151 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:34 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Medford/Jackson, OR (KMFR), launched 00:00Z, 8.6 hours before the alert went out and 154 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2286 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 39 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -61 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 114 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
611 WWUS86 KMFR 220835 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Medford OR 135 AM PDT Sat Aug 22 2020 ...Strong, gusty winds and low relative humidity will increase the risk of spread of new and existing wildfires Sunday afternoon and evening... ...Isolated thunderstorms with little or no rainfall are possible Sunday night through Tuesday... CAZ285-230015- /O.UPG.KMFR.FW.A.0014.200823T2100Z-200824T0300Z/ /O.NEW.KMFR.FW.W.0015.200823T2100Z-200824T0300Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.A.0015.200824T1200Z-200826T0000Z/ Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley- 135 AM PDT Sat Aug 22 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR STRONG, GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 285... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 285... The National Weather Service in Medford has upgraded the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning...which is in effect from 2 PM to 8 PM PDT Sunday. The Fire Weather Watch from late Sunday night through Tuesday afternoon remains in effect. * Impacts: Strong, gusty winds with low relative humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires Sunday afternoon and evening. Lightning and high fire danger could result in new fire starts late Sunday night through Tuesday. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire spread. * Affected area: In Northern CA...Fire Weather Zone 285. * Wind: Southwest 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph Sunday afternoon and evening. * Humidity: As low as 8 percent Sunday afternoon and evening. * Thunderstorms: Generally isolated thunderstorms are possible as early as Monday morning, continuing through Tuesday afternoon. Those storms that occur during the late night and morning hours will feature little rain, but could contain gusty outflows. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... Strong winds and low relative humidities will cause fires to spread very rapidly. A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings. && $$ ORZ624-230015- /O.UPG.KMFR.FW.A.0014.200823T2100Z-200824T0300Z/ /O.NEW.KMFR.FW.W.0015.200823T2100Z-200824T0300Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.A.0015.200824T1200Z-200826T0000Z/ Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest- 135 AM PDT Sat Aug 22 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR STRONG, GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 624... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 624... The National Weather Service in Medford has upgraded the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning...which is in effect from 2 PM to 8 PM PDT Sunday. The Fire Weather Watch from late Sunday night through Tuesday afternoon remains in effect. * Impacts: Strong, gusty winds with low relative humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires Sunday afternoon and evening. Lightning and high fire danger could result in new fire starts late Sunday night through Tuesday. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire spread. * Affected area: In South Central OR...Fire Weather Zone 624. * Wind: Southwest 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph Sunday afternoon and evening. * Humidity: As low as 8 percent Sunday afternoon and evening. * Haines Index: 5 to 6 (Moderate to High) Sunday afternoon and evening. * Thunderstorms: Generally isolated thunderstorms are possible as early as Monday morning, continuing through Tuesday afternoon. Those storms that occur during the late night and morning hours will feature little rain, but could contain gusty outflows. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... Strong winds and low relative humidities will cause fires to spread very rapidly. A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings. && $$ CAZ284-230015- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.A.0015.200824T1200Z-200826T0000Z/ Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt Shasta- 135 AM PDT Sat Aug 22 2020 ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR SOUTHEASTERN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 284... * Impacts: Lightning and high fire danger will likely result in new fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire spread. * Affected area: In Northern CA...Southeastern Fire Weather Zone 284. * Thunderstorms: Generally isolated thunderstorms are possible as early as Monday morning, continuing through Tuesday afternoon. Those storms that occur during the late night and morning hours will feature little rain. * Wind: Southwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph during the afternoons. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings. $$ ORZ625-230015- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.A.0015.200824T1200Z-200826T0000Z/ South Central Oregon Desert including the BLM Land in Eastern Lake and Western Harney Counties- 135 AM PDT Sat Aug 22 2020 ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR SOUTHERN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 625... * Impacts: Lightning and high fire danger will likely result in new fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire spread. * Affected area: In South Central OR...Southern Fire Weather Zone 625. * Wind: Southwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph during the afternoons and evenings. * Thunderstorms: Generally isolated thunderstorms are possible as early as Monday morning, continuing through Tuesday afternoon. Those storms that occur during the late night and morning hours will feature little rain. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings. $$ MAS Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford
6 follow-up statements
782 WWUS86 KMFR 222133 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Medford OR 233 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2020 ...Strong, gusty winds and low relative humidity will increase the risk of spread of new and existing wildfires Sunday afternoon and evening... ...Isolated thunderstorms with little or no rainfall starting Sunday night with thunderstorm chances continuing into Tuesday... CAZ285-231300- /O.EXT.KMFR.FW.A.0015.200824T0900Z-200826T0000Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0015.200823T2100Z-200824T0300Z/ Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley- 233 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR STRONG, GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 285... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 285... * Impacts: Strong, gusty winds with low relative humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires Sunday afternoon and evening. Lightning and high fire danger could result in new fire starts late Sunday night through Tuesday. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire spread. * Affected area: In Northern CA...Fire Weather Zone 285. * Wind: Southwest 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph Sunday afternoon and evening. * Humidity: As low as 8 percent Sunday afternoon and evening. * Thunderstorms: Generally isolated thunderstorms are possible as early as Sunday night, continuing through Tuesday afternoon. Those storms that occur during the late night and morning hours will feature little rain, but could contain gusty outflows. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... Strong winds and low relative humidities will cause fires to spread very rapidly. A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings. $$ ORZ624-231300- /O.EXT.KMFR.FW.A.0015.200824T0900Z-200826T0000Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0015.200823T2100Z-200824T0300Z/ Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest- 233 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR STRONG, GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 624... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND WITH LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 624... * Impacts: Strong, gusty winds with low relative humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires Sunday afternoon and evening. Lightning and high fire danger could result in new fire starts late Sunday night through Tuesday. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire spread. * Affected area: In South Central OR...Southeastern Fire Weather Zone 624 including the Crane wildfire. * Wind: Southwest 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph Sunday afternoon and evening. * Humidity: As low as 8 percent Sunday afternoon and evening. * Haines Index: 5 to 6 (Moderate to High) Sunday afternoon and evening. * Thunderstorms: Generally isolated thunderstorms are possible as early as Sunday night, continuing through Tuesday afternoon. Those storms that occur during the late night and morning hours will feature little rain, but could contain gusty outflows. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... Strong winds and low relative humidities will cause fires to spread very rapidly. A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings. $$ CAZ284-231300- /O.EXT.KMFR.FW.A.0015.200824T0900Z-200826T0000Z/ Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt Shasta- 233 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2020 ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR SOUTHEASTERN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 284... * Impacts: Lightning and high fire danger will likely result in new fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire spread. * Affected area: In Northern CA...Southeastern Fire Weather Zone 284. * Thunderstorms: Generally isolated thunderstorms are possible as early as Sunday night, continuing through Tuesday afternoon. Those storms that occur during the late night and morning hours will feature little rain, but could contain gusty outflows. * Wind: Southwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph during the afternoons. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings. $$ ORZ625-231300- /O.EXT.KMFR.FW.A.0015.200824T0900Z-200826T0000Z/ South Central Oregon Desert including the BLM Land in Eastern Lake and Western Harney Counties- 233 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2020 ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR SOUTHERN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 625... * Impacts: Lightning and high fire danger will likely result in new fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire spread. * Affected area: In South Central OR...Southern Fire Weather Zone 625. * Wind: Southwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph during the afternoons and evenings. * Thunderstorms: Generally isolated thunderstorms are possible as early as late Sunday night, continuing through Tuesday afternoon. Those storms that occur during the late night and morning hours will feature little rain, but could contain gusty outflows. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings. $$ Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford
680 WWUS86 KMFR 222145 CCA RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED National Weather Service Medford OR 245 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2020 ...Strong, gusty winds and low relative humidity will increase the risk of spread of new and existing wildfires Sunday afternoon and evening... ...Isolated thunderstorms with little or no rainfall starting Sunday night with thunderstorm chances continuing into Tuesday... .Corrected for headline wording. CAZ285-231300- /O.COR.KMFR.FW.A.0015.200824T0900Z-200826T0000Z/ /O.COR.KMFR.FW.W.0015.200823T2100Z-200824T0300Z/ Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley- 245 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR STRONG, GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 285... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 285... * Impacts: Strong, gusty winds with low relative humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires Sunday afternoon and evening. Lightning and high fire danger could result in new fire starts late Sunday night through Tuesday. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire spread. * Affected area: In Northern CA...Fire Weather Zone 285. * Wind: Southwest 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph Sunday afternoon and evening. * Humidity: As low as 8 percent Sunday afternoon and evening. * Thunderstorms: Generally isolated thunderstorms are possible as early as Sunday night, continuing through Tuesday afternoon. Those storms that occur during the late night and morning hours will feature little rain, but could contain gusty outflows. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... Strong winds and low relative humidities will cause fires to spread very rapidly. A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings. $$ ORZ624-231300- /O.COR.KMFR.FW.A.0015.200824T0900Z-200826T0000Z/ /O.COR.KMFR.FW.W.0015.200823T2100Z-200824T0300Z/ Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest- 245 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR STRONG, GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 624... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 624... * Impacts: Strong, gusty winds with low relative humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires Sunday afternoon and evening. Lightning and high fire danger could result in new fire starts late Sunday night through Tuesday. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire spread. * Affected area: In South Central OR...Southeastern Fire Weather Zone 624 including the Crane wildfire. * Wind: Southwest 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph Sunday afternoon and evening. * Humidity: As low as 8 percent Sunday afternoon and evening. * Haines Index: 5 to 6 (Moderate to High) Sunday afternoon and evening. * Thunderstorms: Generally isolated thunderstorms are possible as early as Sunday night, continuing through Tuesday afternoon. Those storms that occur during the late night and morning hours will feature little rain, but could contain gusty outflows. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... Strong winds and low relative humidities will cause fires to spread very rapidly. A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings. $$ CAZ284-231300- /O.EXT.KMFR.FW.A.0015.200824T0900Z-200826T0000Z/ Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt Shasta- 245 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2020 ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR SOUTHEASTERN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 284... * Impacts: Lightning and high fire danger will likely result in new fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire spread. * Affected area: In Northern CA...Southeastern Fire Weather Zone 284. * Thunderstorms: Generally isolated thunderstorms are possible as early as Sunday night, continuing through Tuesday afternoon. Those storms that occur during the late night and morning hours will feature little rain, but could contain gusty outflows. * Wind: Southwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph during the afternoons. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings. $$ ORZ625-231300- /O.EXT.KMFR.FW.A.0015.200824T0900Z-200826T0000Z/ South Central Oregon Desert including the BLM Land in Eastern Lake and Western Harney Counties- 245 PM PDT Sat Aug 22 2020 ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR SOUTHERN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 625... * Impacts: Lightning and high fire danger will likely result in new fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire spread. * Affected area: In South Central OR...Southern Fire Weather Zone 625. * Wind: Southwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph during the afternoons and evenings. * Thunderstorms: Generally isolated thunderstorms are possible as early as late Sunday night, continuing through Tuesday afternoon. Those storms that occur during the late night and morning hours will feature little rain, but could contain gusty outflows. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings. $$ Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford
069 WWUS86 KMFR 230941 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Medford OR 241 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2020 ...Strong, gusty winds and low relative humidity will increase the risk of spread of new and existing wildfires this afternoon and evening... ...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms with little or no rainfall late tonight through Monday evening... ORZ624-232145- /O.UPG.KMFR.FW.A.0015.200824T0900Z-200826T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KMFR.FW.W.0016.200824T0900Z-200825T0600Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0015.200823T2100Z-200824T0300Z/ Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest- 241 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG, GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 624 AND ALSO FOR HAINES 6 OVER THE CRANE WILDFIRE... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 624... The National Weather Service in Medford has upgraded the Fire Weather Watch for lightning on dry fuels to a Red Flag Warning...which is in effect from 2 AM to 11 PM PDT Monday. * Impacts: Strong, gusty winds with low relative humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires this afternoon and evening. Lightning and high fire danger could result in new fire starts late tonight through Monday evening. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire spread. * Affected area: In South Central OR...Southeastern Fire Weather Zone 624 including the Crane wildfire. * Wind: Southwest 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph this afternoon and evening. * Humidity: As low as 10 percent this afternoon and evening. * Haines Index: 5 to 6 (Moderate to High) this afternoon and evening. * Thunderstorms: Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected late tonight and continuing through Monday evening. Those storms that occur during the late night and morning hours will feature little rain, but could contain gusty outflows of 40 to 50 mph. * Lightning Activity Level: Mostly 2 to 3, but could be 6 overnight or Monday morning. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... Strong winds and low relative humidities will cause fires to spread very rapidly. Abundant lightning on existing very dry fuels could cause numerous new fire ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow winds could also create extreme fire growth potential. && $$ CAZ285-232145- /O.UPG.KMFR.FW.A.0015.200824T0900Z-200826T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KMFR.FW.W.0016.200824T0900Z-200825T0600Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0015.200823T2100Z-200824T0300Z/ Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley- 241 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG, GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 285... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 285... The National Weather Service in Medford has upgraded the Fire Weather Watch for lightning on dry fuels to a Red Flag Warning...which is in effect from 2 AM to 11 PM PDT Monday. * Impacts: Strong, gusty winds with low relative humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires this afternoon and evening. Lightning and high fire danger could result in new fire starts late tonight through Monday evening. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire spread. * Affected area: In Northern CA...Fire Weather Zone 285. * Wind: Southwest 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph this afternoon and evening. * Humidity: As low as 9 percent. * Thunderstorms: Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected late tonight, continuing through Monday evening. Those storms that occur during the late night and morning hours will feature little rain, but could contain gusty outflows of 40 to 50 mph. * Lightning Activity Level: Mostly 2 to 3, but could be 6 overnight into Monday morning. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... Strong winds and low relative humidities will cause fires to spread very rapidly. Abundant lightning on existing very dry fuels could cause numerous new fire ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow winds could also create extreme fire growth potential. && $$ CAZ284-ORZ625-232145- /O.UPG.KMFR.FW.A.0015.200824T0900Z-200826T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KMFR.FW.W.0016.200824T0900Z-200825T0600Z/ Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt Shasta- South Central Oregon Desert including the BLM Land in Eastern Lake and Western Harney Counties- 241 AM PDT Sun Aug 23 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 284 AND 625... The National Weather Service in Medford has upgraded the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning...which is in effect from 2 AM to 11 PM PDT Monday. * Impacts: Lightning and high fire danger will likely result in new fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire spread. * Affected area: In Northern CA Fire Zone....284. In South Central OR Fire Zone....625. * Wind: Southwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph, except gusty outflows of 40 to 50 mph are possible. * Thunderstorms: Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected late tonight, continuing through Monday evening. Those storms that occur during the late night and morning hours will feature little rain, but could contain gusty outflows. * Lightning Activity Level: Mostly 2 to 3, but could be 6 overnight into Monday morning. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... Abundant lightning on existing very dry fuels could cause numerous new fire ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow winds could also create extreme fire growth potential. && $$ MAS Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford
244 WWUS86 KMFR 232004 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Medford OR 104 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2020 ...Strong, gusty winds and low relative humidity will increase the risk of spread of new and existing wildfires this afternoon and evening... ...Isolated thunderstorms with little or no rainfall late tonight through Monday evening... CAZ280>282-241215- /O.EXA.KMFR.FW.W.0016.200824T0900Z-200825T0600Z/ Western Klamath National Forest- Central Siskiyou County Including Shasta Valley-Shasta- Trinity National Forest in Siskiyou County- 104 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 280... 281 AND 282... The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Red Flag Warning...which is in effect from 2 AM to 11 PM PDT Monday. * Impacts: Lightning and high fire danger could result in new fire starts late tonight through Monday evening. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire spread. * Affected area: In Northern CA...Fire Weather Zones 280...281 and 282. * Thunderstorms: Isolated to occasional scattered storms are expected late tonight through Monday evening. Those storms that occur during the late night and morning hours will feature little rain, but could contain gusty outflows of 40 to 50 mph. * Lightning Activity Level: Mostly 2, but could be 6 overnight into Monday morning. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... Abundant lightning on existing very dry fuels could cause numerous new fire ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow winds could also create extreme fire growth potential. $$ ORZ624-241215- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0015.200823T2100Z-200824T0300Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0016.200824T0900Z-200825T0600Z/ Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest- 104 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 624... ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 624... * Impacts: Strong, gusty winds with low relative humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires this afternoon and evening. Lightning and high fire danger could result in new fire starts late tonight through Monday evening. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire spread. * Affected area: In South Central OR...Fire Weather Zone 624. * Wind: Southwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. * Humidity: As low as 11 percent. * Haines Index: 5 to 6 (Moderate to High) this afternoon and evening. * Thunderstorms: Isolated to occasional scattered thunderstorms are expected late tonight through Monday evening. Those storms that occur during the late night and morning hours will feature little rain, but could contain gusty outflows of 40 to 50 mph. * Lightning Activity Level: Mostly 2 but could be 6 overnight or Monday morning. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... * Strong winds and low relative humidities will cause fires to spread very rapidly. * Abundant lightning on existing very dry fuels could cause numerous new fire ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow winds could also create extreme fire growth potential. $$ CAZ285-241215- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0015.200823T2100Z-200824T0300Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0016.200824T0900Z-200825T0600Z/ Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley- 104 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 285... ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 285... * Impacts: Strong, gusty winds with low relative humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires this afternoon and evening. Lightning and high fire danger could result in new fire starts late tonight through Monday evening. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire spread. * Affected area: In Northern CA...Fire Weather Zone 285. * Wind: Southwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. * Humidity: As low as 9 percent. * Thunderstorms: Isolated to occasional scattered thunderstorms are expected late tonight through Monday evening. Those storms that occur during the late night and morning hours will feature little rain, but could contain gusty outflows of 40 to 50 mph. * Lightning Activity Level: Mostly 2 but could be 6 overnight into Monday morning. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... * Strong winds and low relative humidities will cause fires to spread very rapidly. * Abundant lightning on existing very dry fuels could cause numerous new fire ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow winds could also create extreme fire growth potential. $$ CAZ284-ORZ625-241215- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0016.200824T0900Z-200825T0600Z/ Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt Shasta- South Central Oregon Desert including the BLM Land in Eastern Lake and Western Harney Counties- 104 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 284 AND 625... * Impacts: Lightning and high fire danger will likely result in new fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire spread. Despite rainfall, initial attack resources could be overwhelmed and holdover fires are possible. * Affected area: In Northern CA Fire Zone....284. In South Central OR Fire Zone....625. * Thunderstorms: Isolated to occasional scattered thunderstorms are expected late tonight through Monday evening. Those storms that occur during the late night and morning hours will feature little rain, but could contain gusty outflows of 40 to 50 mph. * Lightning Activity Level: Mostly 2 but could be 6 overnight into Monday morning. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... * Abundant lightning on existing very dry fuels could cause numerous new fire ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow winds could also create extreme fire growth potential. $$ Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford
979 WWUS86 KMFR 232011 CCA RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED National Weather Service Medford OR 111 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2020 ...Strong, gusty winds and low relative humidity will increase the risk of spread of new and existing wildfires this afternoon and evening... ...Isolated thunderstorms with little or no rainfall late tonight through Monday evening... CAZ280>282-241215- /O.EXA.KMFR.FW.W.0016.200824T0900Z-200825T0600Z/ Western Klamath National Forest- Central Siskiyou County Including Shasta Valley-Shasta- Trinity National Forest in Siskiyou County- 111 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 280... 281 AND 282... The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Red Flag Warning...which is in effect from 2 AM to 11 PM PDT Monday. * Impacts: Lightning and high fire danger could result in new fire starts late tonight through Monday evening. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire spread. * Affected area: In Northern CA...Fire Weather Zones 280...281 and 282. * Thunderstorms: Isolated to occasional scattered storms are expected late tonight through Monday evening. Those storms that occur during the late night and morning hours will feature little rain, but could contain gusty outflows of 40 to 50 mph. * Lightning Activity Level: Mostly 2, but could be 6 overnight into Monday morning. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... Abundant lightning on existing very dry fuels could cause numerous new fire ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow winds could also create extreme fire growth potential. $$ ORZ624-241215- /O.COR.KMFR.FW.W.0015.200823T2100Z-200824T0300Z/ /O.COR.KMFR.FW.W.0016.200824T0900Z-200825T0600Z/ Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest- 111 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 624 AND FOR HAINES INDEX OF 6 ON THE CRANE WILDFIRE... ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 624... * Impacts: Strong, gusty winds with low relative humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires this afternoon and evening. Lightning and high fire danger could result in new fire starts late tonight through Monday evening. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire spread. * Affected area: In South Central OR...Fire Weather Zone 624. * Wind: Southwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. * Humidity: As low as 11 percent. * Haines Index: 5 to 6 (Moderate to High) this afternoon and evening. * Thunderstorms: Isolated to occasional scattered thunderstorms are expected late tonight through Monday evening. Those storms that occur during the late night and morning hours will feature little rain, but could contain gusty outflows of 40 to 50 mph. * Lightning Activity Level: Mostly 2 but could be 6 overnight or Monday morning. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... * Strong winds and low relative humidities will cause fires to spread very rapidly. * Abundant lightning on existing very dry fuels could cause numerous new fire ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow winds could also create extreme fire growth potential. $$ CAZ285-241215- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0015.200823T2100Z-200824T0300Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0016.200824T0900Z-200825T0600Z/ Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley- 111 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 285... ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 285... * Impacts: Strong, gusty winds with low relative humidity and high fire danger will likely contribute to a significant spread of new and existing fires this afternoon and evening. Lightning and high fire danger could result in new fire starts late tonight through Monday evening. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire spread. * Affected area: In Northern CA...Fire Weather Zone 285. * Wind: Southwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. * Humidity: As low as 9 percent. * Thunderstorms: Isolated to occasional scattered thunderstorms are expected late tonight through Monday evening. Those storms that occur during the late night and morning hours will feature little rain, but could contain gusty outflows of 40 to 50 mph. * Lightning Activity Level: Mostly 2 but could be 6 overnight into Monday morning. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... * Strong winds and low relative humidities will cause fires to spread very rapidly. * Abundant lightning on existing very dry fuels could cause numerous new fire ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow winds could also create extreme fire growth potential. $$ CAZ284-ORZ625-241215- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0016.200824T0900Z-200825T0600Z/ Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt Shasta- South Central Oregon Desert including the BLM Land in Eastern Lake and Western Harney Counties- 111 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 284 AND 625... * Impacts: Lightning and high fire danger will likely result in new fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire spread. Despite rainfall, initial attack resources could be overwhelmed and holdover fires are possible. * Affected area: In Northern CA Fire Zone....284. In South Central OR Fire Zone....625. * Thunderstorms: Isolated to occasional scattered thunderstorms are expected late tonight through Monday evening. Those storms that occur during the late night and morning hours will feature little rain, but could contain gusty outflows of 40 to 50 mph. * Lightning Activity Level: Mostly 2 but could be 6 overnight into Monday morning. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... * Abundant lightning on existing very dry fuels could cause numerous new fire ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow winds could also create extreme fire growth potential. $$ Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford
924 WWUS86 KMFR 240241 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Medford OR 741 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2020 ...Isolated thunderstorms with little or no rainfall late tonight through Monday evening... ORZ624-241445- /O.EXP.KMFR.FW.W.0015.000000T0000Z-200824T0300Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0016.200824T0900Z-200825T0600Z/ Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest- 741 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 624... ...THE OTHER RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 624... * Impacts: Dry thunderstorms and high fire danger will likely result in new fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire spread. Initial attack resources could be overwhelmed and holdover fires are possible. * Affected area: In South Central OR...Fire Weather Zone 624. * Thunderstorms: Isolated to occasional scattered thunderstorms are expected late tonight through Monday evening. Those storms that occur during the late night and morning hours will feature little rain, but could contain gusty outflows of 40 to 50 mph. * Lightning Activity Level: Mostly 2 but could be 6 overnight or Monday morning. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD * Strong winds and low relative humidities will cause fires to spread very rapidly. && $$ CAZ285-241445- /O.EXP.KMFR.FW.W.0015.000000T0000Z-200824T0300Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0016.200824T0900Z-200825T0600Z/ Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley- 741 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 285... ...THE OTHER RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 285... * Impacts: Dry thunderstorms and high fire danger will likely result in new fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire spread. Initial attack resources could be overwhelmed and holdover fires are possible. * Affected area: In Northern CA...Fire Weather Zone 285. * Thunderstorms: Isolated to occasional scattered thunderstorms are expected late tonight through Monday evening. Those storms that occur during the late night and morning hours will feature little rain, but could contain gusty outflows of 40 to 50 mph. * Lightning Activity Level: Mostly 2 but could be 6 overnight into Monday morning. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD * Abundant lightning on existing very dry fuels could cause numerous new fire ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow winds could also create extreme fire growth potential. && $$ CAZ280>282-284-ORZ625-241445- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0016.200824T0900Z-200825T0600Z/ Western Klamath National Forest- Central Siskiyou County Including Shasta Valley-Shasta- Trinity National Forest in Siskiyou County- Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt Shasta- South Central Oregon Desert including the BLM Land in Eastern Lake and Western Harney Counties- 741 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2020 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 280...281...282...284 AND 625... * Impacts: Dry thunderstorms and high fire danger will likely result in new fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute to fire spread. Initial attack resources could be overwhelmed and holdover fires are possible. * Affected area: In Northern CA Fire Zones...280...281...282...284. In South Central OR Fire Zone....625. * Thunderstorms: Isolated to occasional scattered thunderstorms are expected late tonight through Monday evening. Those storms that occur during the late night and morning hours will feature little rain, but could contain gusty outflows of 40 to 50 mph. * Lightning Activity Level: Mostly 2 but could be 6 overnight into Monday morning. * View the hazard area in detail at: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD * Abundant lightning on existing very dry fuels could cause numerous new fire ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow winds could also create extreme fire growth potential. $$ Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this red flag warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before this red flag warning went out at Aug 21, 8:52 PM PDT, 4 hours 43 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 21, 8:52 PM PDT, 4 hours 43 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
852 PM PDT Fri Aug 21 2020
.UPDATE...
We made a few changes to the smoke forecast tonight as it appears
the dense smoke is persisting over northern California a bit
longer than what the models anticipated, especially around
Alturas. However, some of this smoke should mix out and move
eastward tonight. Lakeview is already seeing this as the
visibility at the airport has improved to 8 miles as of 8pm.
Outside of the smoke, the thunderstorm forecast still appears on
track for Monday and is discussed in slightly more detail below.
-Smith
&&
.DISCUSSION.../Issued 306 PM PDT Fri Aug 21 2020/
The front looks to be breaking up at the coast, with
the lower portions being held up at the coast and maintaining
areas of drizzle and light accumulations along the coast range.
The upper portion of the front is advancing inland causing upslope
cumulus to form as far inland as the Cascades.
Tonight, although surface moisture will be more abundant than it
has been, we are not expecting fog in the Umpqua. Instead just a
thick stratus deck is anticipated. Some foggy conditions could
develop along the coast and in the Coquille once that area
stabilizes some from the front.
Early next week, yet another tropical remnant will meander north
off the California coast and will cause moisture rich air to move
north. The moisture however, is mostly in the upper levels,
nearer to 500mb and means that high base thunderstorms are more
likely. This will be most impactful at night, when Sunday night
into Monday morning when the lower parts of the region are more
dry and more evaporation of any rain occurs. A slight chance for
these high base storms are expected in Modoc County and Lake
county but, uncertainty in Gieneves' final position has prompted
including a slight chance for thunderstorms as far west as the
trinity horn in Siskiyou County. Any of these nocturnal
thunderstorms have the potential wildfire producers because
lightning will be associated with little if any rain.
Monday into Tuesday, the thunderstorm threat continues as the
region moistens further. The added variables of cloud cover and
smoke will impact surface instability and will effect daytime
convection. As instability remains low, the threat of severe
storms appears low too as a result. Being in the climatologically
driest part of the year, the risk of lightning caused fires poses
a significant risk. At this time, the slight chance for
thunderstorms exists for Siskiyou, Modoc, Klamath, and Lake
Counties. -Miles
&&
.AVIATION...For the 22/00Z TAFs...Over the coastal waters and into
the coastal valleys...IFR ceilings have moved back into the coast
and are expected to burn back offshore.
Inland...VFR conditions will prevail over southern Oregon through
Saturday morning. Over Siskiyou and Modoc counties in northern
California, wildfire smoke will result in areas of MVFR vsbys
through the TAF period.
-Sven
&&
.MARINE...Updated 800 PM PDT Friday 21 August 2020...Relatively
light winds and low seas will continue into tonight as a weak front
moves across the area. Behind this front, a thermal trough will
develop near the coast. This will bring strong north winds on
Saturday, with a mix of steep to very steep seas Saturday into next
week. Winds may rise to gale force across portions of the waters
south of Cape Blanco Monday afternoon. The strong north winds and
steep to very steep seas may then persist through late in the week. -
DW/Sven
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 PM PDT Friday 21 August 2020...Breezy
and dry conditions are expected this afternoon/evening and again
Saturday afternoon and evening. Today will feature the stronger
winds thanks to a mostly dry cool front moving through, and tomorrow
will feature the lower humidity as the air mass dries behind the
cold front. An upper trough approaches from the west on Sunday, and
southwest winds will increase some. Humidity will remain low, so we
expect critical fire weather conditions in Fire Weather Zones 285
and Southern 624.
Regarding thunderstorm chances...moisture and energy from the
remnants of Hurricane Genevieve off the coast of Baja California
will make its way up into the forecast area by early Monday morning.
This will combine with instability aloft to bring a chance for
morning lightning to mainly extreme eastern Siskiyou County, Modoc
County, and Southern Lake County. Other areas have a slight chance
of storms Monday morning, but we've issued a Fire Weather Watch for
the above areas because we have highest confidence for lightning
there. Any storms Monday morning will likely have minimal to no
rainfall, this is especially concerning. Overnight and morning
storms tend to be drier than daytime storms, and the moisture from
the remnants of the tropical system will be in the midlevels, and
the low levels will be dry, so that's why we expect minimal rainfall
Monday morning. Monday afternoon there really any trigger for storms
continues to remain in the eastern portion of the forecast area,
where we have the Fire Weather Watch issued. Then, on late Monday,
additional energy from the south moves north, and this trigger and
associated moisture and instability could bring storms to areas just
west of the Cascades and into most of Siskiyou County. So in
general, storms Monday night/Tuesday morning could affect areas
further west than Monday morning storms. We'll consider headlines
and Fire Weather Watches for these areas as new data arrives, but
there's not enough confidence to issue any hazards yet for this. On
Tuesday afternoon, there could be some additional storms, and these
would most likely be east of the Cascades.
Something to mention about lightning potential is that during the
day, smoke and mid-high level clouds will likely limit surface
heating, and therefore could prevent thunderstorms from reaching
scattered coverage. We'll be looking at this in future shifts to
help determine what areas to highlight in any additional Watches.
The smoke/cloud cover won't inhibit nocturnal/morning storms though
because these storms won't rely on surface heating to form.
Keene
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
for ORZ624.
Fire Weather Watch from late Sunday night through Tuesday
afternoon for ORZ624.
Fire Weather Watch from late Sunday night through Tuesday
afternoon for ORZ625.
CA...Fire Weather Watch from late Sunday night through Tuesday
afternoon for CAZ285.
Fire Weather Watch from late Sunday night through Tuesday
afternoon for CAZ284.
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
for CAZ285.
Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 5 PM PDT Tuesday for
PZZ350-356-370-376.
Gale Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon for
PZZ356-376.
Hazardous Seas Warning from 2 PM Saturday to 2 PM PDT Monday for
PZZ356-376.Nearby
Red Flag Warnings in Oregon, 2020Red Flag Warnings in California, 2020Every red flag warning in 2020
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.