Gale Warning 2, NWS Medford, OR

406 
WHUS76 KMFR 082317
MWWMFR

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
317 PM PST Wed Jan 8 2020

PZZ376-091130-
/O.EXT.KMFR.SC.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-200109T0600Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.GL.W.0002.200109T0600Z-200109T1800Z/
/O.CAN.KMFR.SE.W.0004.200109T1200Z-200109T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KMFR.SC.Y.0004.200109T1800Z-200110T0600Z/
/O.EXT.KMFR.SE.A.0003.200111T0900Z-200112T1800Z/
Waters from Cape Blanco OR to Pt. St. George CA from 10 to 60 nm-
317 PM PST Wed Jan 8 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM PST THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PST
THURSDAY...
...HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, southwest winds 10 to 20 kt
  and steep seas 10 to 12 ft. For the Gale Warning, northwest
  winds 25 to 35 kt and steep seas 15 feet at 11 seconds expected.
  For the Small Craft Advisory, north winds 10 to 20 kt with and 
  seas 10 to 14 feet at 11 seconds expected. For the Hazardous 
  Seas Watch, very steep and hazardous seas 21 to 26 feet at 16 
  seconds possible.

* WHERE...All areas.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 10 PM PST 
  this evening. For the Gale Warning, from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM
  PST Thursday. For the Small Craft Advisory, from 10 AM to 10 PM
  PST Thursday. For the Hazardous Seas Watch, from late Friday 
  night through Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds and very steep seas could capsize or 
  damage vessels. Low visibility conditions are expected.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid strong winds and very steep
seas. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or
secure the vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

PZZ356-091130-
/O.EXT.KMFR.SC.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-200110T0600Z/
/O.EXA.KMFR.GL.W.0002.200109T0600Z-200109T1800Z/
/O.CAN.KMFR.SE.W.0004.200109T1200Z-200109T1800Z/
/O.EXT.KMFR.SE.A.0003.200111T0900Z-200112T1800Z/
Coastal waters from Cape Blanco OR to Pt. St. George CA out 10 nm-
317 PM PST Wed Jan 8 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THURSDAY...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PST
THURSDAY...
...HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, southwest winds 15 to 25 kt
  with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 7 to 12 feet at 12 seconds. For
  the Gale Warning, north winds 20 to 30 kt with occasional gale
  force gusts and steep to very steep seas 10 to 15 ft. For the 
  Hazardous Seas Watch, very steep and hazardous seas 17 to 22 
  feet at 16 seconds possible.

* WHERE...Gales and very steep seas will affect areas generally
  beyond 2 NM from shore with Small Craft Advisory conditions
  elsewhere. Warning level seas are possible all areas late 
  Friday night to Saturday.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM 
  PST Thursday. For the Small Craft Advisory, until 10 PM PST 
  Thursday. For the Hazardous Seas Watch, from late Friday night 
  through Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...During the advisory period, small boats and 
  inexperienced mariners could encounter conditions that could 
  jeopardize safety. During the warning and watch periods, 
  strong winds and very steep seas could damage or displace 
  fishing gear. Very steep and hazardous seas could capsize or 
  damage vessels. Bar crossing will become especially 
  treacherous.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid strong winds and very steep
seas. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or
secure the vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

PZZ370-091130-
/O.EXT.KMFR.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-200110T0600Z/
/O.EXA.KMFR.GL.W.0002.200109T0600Z-200109T1800Z/
/O.CAN.KMFR.SE.W.0004.200109T1200Z-200109T1800Z/
/O.EXT.KMFR.SE.A.0003.200111T0900Z-200112T1800Z/
Waters from Florence to Cape Blanco OR from 10 to 60 nm-
317 PM PST Wed Jan 8 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THURSDAY...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PST
THURSDAY...
...HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, southwest winds 10 to 20 kt and
  seas 9 to 13 feet at 12 seconds. For the Hazardous Seas 
  Warning, very steep and hazardous seas around 13 feet at 10 
  seconds expected. For the Hazardous Seas Watch, very steep and 
  hazardous seas 24 to 29 feet at 16 seconds possible.

* WHERE...Gales will affect areas from Bandon southward beyond 10
  NM from shore. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected
  elsewhere. Warning level seas are possible all areas.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM 
  PST Thursday. For the Small Craft Advisory, until 10 PM PST 
  Thursday. For the Hazardous Seas Watch, from late Friday night 
  through Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...During the advisory period, small boats and 
  inexperienced mariners could encounter conditions that could 
  jeopardize safety. During the warning and watch periods, 
  strong winds and very steep seas could damage or displace 
  fishing gear. Very steep and hazardous seas could capsize or 
  damage vessels. Bar crossing will become especially 
  treacherous.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid strong winds and very steep
seas. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or
secure the vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

PZZ350-091130-
/O.EXT.KMFR.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-200110T0600Z/
/O.CAN.KMFR.SE.W.0004.200109T1200Z-200109T1800Z/
/O.EXT.KMFR.SE.A.0003.200111T0900Z-200112T1800Z/
Coastal waters from Florence to Cape Blanco OR out 10 nm-
317 PM PST Wed Jan 8 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THURSDAY...
...HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, steep seas 8 to 12 feet at
  12 seconds. For the Hazardous Seas Watch, very steep and 
  hazardous seas 20 to 25 feet at 16 seconds possible.

* WHERE...All areas.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 10 PM PST Thursday. 
  For the Hazardous Seas Watch, from late Friday night through 
  Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...During the advisory period, small boats and 
  inexperienced mariners could encounter conditions that could 
  jeopardize safety. During the warning and watch periods, 
  strong winds and very steep seas could damage or displace 
  fishing gear. Very steep and hazardous seas could capsize or 
  damage vessels. Bar crossing will become especially 
  treacherous.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Consider altering your plans to avoid possible hazardous and very
steep sea conditions.

&&

$$

Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/Medford

559 
WHUS76 KMFR 091148
MWWMFR

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
348 AM PST Thu Jan 9 2020

PZZ376-100000-
/O.CAN.KMFR.GL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-200109T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KMFR.SE.W.0005.200109T1148Z-200109T1800Z/
/O.EXB.KMFR.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-200109T1800Z/
/O.CAN.KMFR.SC.Y.0004.200109T1800Z-200110T0600Z/
/O.EXT.KMFR.SE.A.0003.200111T0600Z-200112T1800Z/
Waters from Cape Blanco OR to Pt. St. George CA from 10 to 60 nm-
348 AM PST Thu Jan 9 2020

...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...
...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS
MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING...
...HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...For the Hazardous Seas Warning, very steep and hazardous
  seas around 11 feet at 10 seconds or less. For the Small Craft
  Advisory, north winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and
  seas around 11 feet at 12 seconds. For the Hazardous Seas Watch,
  very steep and hazardous seas 21 to 26 feet at 16 seconds 
  possible.

* WHERE...This morning's Hazardous Seas Warning is for much of the
  area beyond 10 NM of the coast south of Gold Beach. The Small
  Craft Advisory is in effect for the remainder of the area this
  morning. The Hazardous Seas Watch remains in effect for the
  entire area.

* WHEN...For the Hazardous Seas Warning and the Small Craft Advisory,
  until 10 AM PST this morning. For the Hazardous Seas Watch, 
  from Friday evening through Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...In the advisory area small boats and inexperienced
  mariners could encounter conditions that could jeopardize
  safety. In the warning and during the watch period, strong 
  winds and very steep seas could damage or displace fishing gear.
  Very steep and hazardous seas could capsize or damage vessels.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that winds and seas will create a
potential hazard to smaller vessels and inexperienced mariners.

A Hazardous Seas Warning means very steep and hazardous sea
conditions are imminent or occurring. Recreational boaters should
remain in port, or take shelter until waves subside.  Commercial
vessels should prepare for rough seas and consider remaining in
port or taking shelter in port until hazardous seas subside.

A Hazardous Seas Watch is issued when the risk of very steep and
hazardous seas has significantly increased, but the specific
timing and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to
provide additional lead time for mariners who may wish to
consider altering their plans.

&&

$$

PZZ370-100000-
/O.CAN.KMFR.GL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-200109T1800Z/
/O.EXT.KMFR.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-200109T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KMFR.GL.A.0003.200110T1800Z-200111T0600Z/
/O.EXT.KMFR.SE.A.0003.200110T1800Z-200112T1800Z/
Waters from Florence to Cape Blanco OR from 10 to 60 nm-
348 AM PST Thu Jan 9 2020

...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS
MORNING...
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...
...HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, seas around 10 feet at 12 
  seconds. For the Gale Watch, southwest winds 25 to 35 kt with 
  gusts up to 40 kt and seas 10 to 14 feet at 10 seconds 
  possible. For the Hazardous Seas Watch, very steep and 
  hazardous seas 24 to 29 feet at 16 seconds possible.

* WHERE...All areas for this morning's advisory. The Gale Watch is
  for areas inside of 30 NM of the coast. The Hazardous Seas 
  Watch is for all areas.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 10 AM PST this 
  morning. For the Gale Watch, from Friday morning through 
  Friday evening. For the Hazardous Seas Watch, from Friday 
  morning through Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...In the advisory area small boats and inexperienced
  mariners could encounter conditions that could jeopardize
  safety. During the watch period, strong winds and very steep 
  seas could damage or displace fishing gear. Very steep and 
  hazardous seas could capsize or damage vessels.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that winds and seas will create a
potential hazard to smaller vessels and inexperienced mariners.

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased, but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

PZZ356-100000-
/O.CAN.KMFR.GL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-200109T1800Z/
/O.EXT.KMFR.SC.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-200109T1800Z/
/O.EXT.KMFR.SE.A.0003.200111T0600Z-200112T1800Z/
Coastal waters from Cape Blanco OR to Pt. St. George CA out 10 nm-
348 AM PST Thu Jan 9 2020

...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS
MORNING...
...HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, north winds 10 to 20 kt 
  with gusts up to 25 kt and seas 9 to 11 feet at 12 seconds. 
  For the Hazardous Seas Watch, very steep and hazardous seas 17 
  to 22 feet at 16 seconds possible.

* WHERE...All areas for both hazards.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 10 AM PST this 
  morning. For the Hazardous Seas Watch, from Friday evening 
  through Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...In the advisory area small boats and inexperienced
  mariners could encounter conditions that could jeopardize
  safety. During the watch period, strong winds and very steep
  seas could damage or displace fishing gear. Very steep and
  hazardous seas could capsize or damage vessels. Bar crossing 
  will become especially treacherous.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that winds and seas will create a
potential hazard to smaller vessels and inexperienced mariners.

A Hazardous Seas Watch is issued when the risk of very steep and
hazardous seas has significantly increased, but the specific
timing and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to
provide additional lead time for mariners who may wish to
consider altering their plans.

&&

$$

PZZ350-100000-
/O.EXT.KMFR.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-200109T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KMFR.GL.A.0003.200110T1800Z-200111T0600Z/
/O.EXT.KMFR.SE.A.0003.200111T0600Z-200112T1800Z/
Coastal waters from Florence to Cape Blanco OR out 10 nm-
348 AM PST Thu Jan 9 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS
MORNING...
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...
...HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, seas around 9 feet at 12 
  seconds. For the Gale Watch, southwest winds 25 to 35 kt with 
  gusts up to 45 kt and seas 10 to 13 feet at 10 seconds 
  possible. For the Hazardous Seas Watch, very steep and 
  hazardous seas 20 to 25 feet at 16 seconds possible.

* WHERE...All areas for this morning's advisory. The Gale Watch is
  for areas between 1 and 30 NM of the coast. The Hazardous Seas 
  Watch is for all areas.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 10 AM PST this 
  morning. For the Gale Watch, from Friday morning through 
  Friday evening. For the Hazardous Seas Watch, from Friday 
  evening through Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...In the advisory area small boats and inexperienced
  mariners could encounter conditions that could jeopardize
  safety. During the watch period, strong winds and very steep
  seas could damage or displace fishing gear. Very steep and
  hazardous seas could capsize or damage vessels. Bar crossing 
  will become especially treacherous.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that winds and seas will create a
potential hazard to smaller vessels and inexperienced mariners.

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased, but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

BTL

Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/Medford

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
849 PM PST Tue Jan 7 2020

Updated Aviation Discussion.

.DISCUSSION...A cold front is pushing east of the Cascades this
evening. Moist, onshore flow will continue overnight into
Wednesday resulting in showers that will be most numerous along
and west of the Cascades in prevailing west-northwest flow aloft.
West and north-facing terrain locations will be favored while
showers will be more sparse in the valleys. Snow levels will drop
to around 3500 feet with another 2-6 inches of snow over the
Cascades and Siskiyou Mountains, highest near and north of
Crater/Diamond Lake.

Late Wednesday afternoon and evening, another potent disturbance
will take shape offshore in the west-northwest flow aloft, push
onshore into SW Oregon late Wednesday night, and then move across
northern California early Thursday morning. A good area of PVA
and associated upward motion will accompany this system producing
a period of moderate to briefly heavy precipitation during this
time period. Given that snow levels will drop to near and perhaps
even a bit below 3000 feet, we have issued a winter weather
advisory for portions of Siskiyou County, including Interstate 5
around Mt. Shasta City for Wednesday evening through early
Thursday morning. Overall, expect a fairly quick 3-6 inches of
snow that could hamper travel there for the morning rush. For all
the details, please see WSWMFR. There will also likely be some
accumulating snow over Siskiyou Summit, around 2-4 inches, with
higher amounts of 4-8 inches in the Cascades and Siskiyous. A
general 1-3 inches of snow will fall east of the Cascades. It
looks like snow levels will bottom out near 2500 feet Thursday
morning, perhaps even locally lower where precipitation is
heavier. This could bring some snow to the Scott/Shasta Valleys
and around Dunsmuir too before precipitation ends Thursday
morning. Right now, the lower passes north of Medford look OK with
snow levels too high for accumulating snow, but we'll be watching
this closely. Once this system exits to the SE, we should catch a
break late Thursday into Friday before the next system arrives
late Friday and Friday night. -Spilde

&&

.AVIATION...For the 08/06Z TAF Cycle...Areas of MVFR cigs/vsbys in
rain and snow showers with higher terrain obscured will persist into
Wednesday afternoon, but the lower conditions will be most
widespread in the late night and early morning hours. There will
also be local IFR cigs/vsbys, mostly in snow showers over higher
terrain and east of the Cascades.  An incoming front will bring more
widespread MVFR cigs with heavier precipitation beginning at the
coast in the late afternoon and early evening hours, spreading
inland Wednesday evening.

&&

.MARINE...Updated 830 PM PST Tue 7 January 2020...A combination
of wind waves and west swell will keep seas generally steep through
Thursday. Low pressure will approach the waters from the north
Wednesday night. This system will bring gusty south winds followed
by the potential for northerly gales behind the low Thursday
morning. A gale watch is in effect for this low beyond about 20 NM
from shore south of Cape Blanco, but confidence is only moderate
because if the low track shifts a little farther south, advisory
winds will occur instead of gales.

A front will move onshore Friday, followed by a  large, long period
swell Friday night into Saturday with seas possibly building up to
20 to 25 feet at 17 seconds. Confidence is increasing for this event
as the models have been showing this large swell consistently for
the past several days.

Yet another front will move onshore Sunday. -Stockton/Keene

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 400 PM PST Tue Jan 7 2020/

Updated aviation discussion.

SHORT TERM...Through Thursday...The first band of precipitation
with the front is almost to the Cascades at this time. With a cold
air mass aloft, and the left exit region of a 95 kt jet moving
across the forecast area in the unstable air mass over the ocean
a few thunderstorms are possible into early evening over the
waters. With west southwesterly steering winds around 45 kt
storms that do develop will likely hold together a bit inland
before dissipating. Although the colder air shifts east after 06Z
lapse rates remain high enough to keep the shower activity going,
mostly on the west side, ahead of the next front that moves in
Wednesday afternoon. In northwest flow this front will see lower
snow levels that will effect the Cascade passes, and Siskiyou
Summit, but with the quick movement through the region snow
amounts should remain below advisory amounts as the bulk of the
precipitation occuring Wednesday night. Showers quickly taper of
Thursday ahead of the next front that moves in Friday morning.
Sven

LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)...It will remain active
during this time period with a series of systems originating from
the Gulf of Alaska dropping into our forecast area. Typically
systems that track in from this direction result in unsettled
weather with lower snow levels. Confidence is very high the
mountains will get a significant amount of snow between Friday and
next Tuesday. This is good news since the current snowpack (snow
water equivalent) is between 35-50% of normal. So this will be an
opportunity to put a dent into this deficit.

There is a trade off however in terms of road snow and travel. It's
pretty much a done deal the higher passes along the Cascades, Crater
Lake and Diamond Lake will get a significant amount of snow during
this time period, but it won't be snowing all the time. Siskiyou
Summit could also get a significant amount of snow. Not of the
magnitude of the Cascades, but enough that it could disrupt
travel.

For the lower passes, it will be a close call for road snow Friday
night into Saturday. Odds are snow levels will remain above the
lower passes, so that means rain. However, much will depend on
precip intensity. During times when precip is moderate to heavy,
could not rule out brief accumulations as snow levels briefly lower.
The concern for accumulating snow could increase Sunday as a colder
air mass moves in and another significant system moves in from the
northwest. It will all come down to the timing and exact track of
these systems.

Friday's system may end up being the strongest one of the forecast
period with moderate to heavy precipitation along the coast, Coast
Range and Cascades. The front is expected move into the forecast
area Friday afternoon with most of the significant precipitation
expected along and just behind the front Friday evening and night.
Could not rule out some light precip by way of warm front in the
morning over the northwest part of the forecast area Friday morning
and early afternoon, but the most significant precipitation is
expected late Friday afternoon and night

The higher passes along the Cascades, Crater lake and Diamond Lake
area are likely to get a good shot of moderate to heavy snow late
Friday afternoon into Friday night. It will be a close call for the
lower passes along I-5 between Grants Pass and Canyonville overnight
Friday. Much will depend on the exact timing of the front,
precipitation intensity and how quick the cold air mass arrives.

Saturday, plenty of energy in a moist northwest flow aloft will move
into the area which could favor moderate to heavy precipitation most
of the day for the Cascades. Snow levels Saturday generally are
expected to be between 2500-3000 feet, but could lower between 2000-
2500 feet in heavier precipitation which would affect the lower
passes along I-5 between Grants Pass and Canyonville.

Snow levels Sunday could be tricky. The models hint at brief warming
aloft in the southwest part of the forecast area allowing snow
levels to briefly come up, but confidence on this is low. This is
because another disturbance will bring increasing precipitation to
the area Sunday morning through Sunday evening. The general
consensus is for snow levels to be around 2000 ft.

Upper troughing will remain over the area through early next week.
Yet another significant shortwave could impact the area Monday
afternoon with a reinforcing shot of cold air behind Monday night
into Tuesday with snow levels possibly getting down to the valley
floors.

Looking beyond Tuesday night through Friday Jan 17th, the data
remains consistent showing below normal 500 mb height anomalies
(troughing) over the western U.S. with above normal 500 mb anomalies
(ridging) over the Aleutian Islands and southeastern part of the
U.S. After Jan 17th, the ECMWF ensemble begins to "wash" out and
actually hints at some positive anomalies and some ridging. In
contrast, the GEFS suggest much of the same could past into the
third week in January.

In other words, were likely to hold on to the colder than normal
temperature pattern (at least until Jan 17th). Also, any systems
that move into the area will originate from the Gulf of Alaska which
typically means cold and wet. Of course it's way too early to go
into specifics. As always, this is something we'll continue to
monitor and keep everyone up to date in the days to come.
-Petrucelli

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...
CA...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Wednesday to 6 AM PST Thursday
     above 3000 feet in the for CAZ080.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM Wednesday to 6 AM PST Thursday
     for CAZ082-083.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Thursday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.
     Hazardous Seas Watch from late Friday night through Sunday
     morning for PZZ350-356.
     Gale Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning
     for PZZ376.
     Hazardous Seas Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday
     morning for PZZ370-376.

MAS/JRS/MAP/NSK