Gale Warning 1, NWS Medford, OR

744 
WHUS76 KMFR 021018
MWWMFR

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
218 AM PST Thu Jan 2 2020

PZZ356-376-022230-
/O.CON.KMFR.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-200103T2100Z/
/O.EXT.KMFR.SE.W.0001.200103T2100Z-200105T0000Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.GL.W.0001.200103T2100Z-200104T0600Z/
/O.CAN.KMFR.SE.A.0001.200104T0600Z-200105T0000Z/
Coastal waters from Cape Blanco OR to Pt. St. George CA out 10 nm-
Waters from Cape Blanco OR to Pt. St. George CA from 10 to 60 nm-
218 AM PST Thu Jan 2 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM PST FRIDAY...
...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 4 PM
PST SATURDAY...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM PST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Steep seas of 13 to 15 feet at 16 seconds will continue
  through tonight, then south gales of 30 to 40 kt with gusts up
  to 45 kt and very steep and wind driven seas of 14 to 21 feet 
  will develop by Friday afternoon. 

* WHERE...Small craft advisory conditions will impact all coastal
  waters south of Cape Blanco, with gales and very steep and
  hazardous seas impacting all areas Friday afternoon.

* WHEN...The Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 1 PM PST
  Friday, followed by a Gale Warning from 1 PM to 10 PM PST
  Friday. The Hazardous Seas Warning is in effect from 1 PM Friday
  to 4 PM PST Saturday. 

* IMPACTS...Strong winds and very steep seas could capsize or 
  damage vessels. Low visibility conditions are expected.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid strong winds and very steep
seas. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or
secure the vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

PZZ350-022230-
/O.CON.KMFR.SC.Y.0104.000000T0000Z-200103T2100Z/
/O.EXT.KMFR.SE.W.0001.200103T2100Z-200105T0000Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.GL.W.0001.200103T2100Z-200104T0600Z/
/O.CAN.KMFR.SE.A.0001.200104T0600Z-200105T0000Z/
Coastal waters from Florence to Cape Blanco OR out 10 nm-
218 AM PST Thu Jan 2 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM PST FRIDAY...
...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 4 PM
PST SATURDAY...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM PST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Steep seas of 13 to 15 feet at 16 seconds will continue
  through tonight, then south gales of 35 to 45 kt with gusts to
  around 50 kt and very steep and wind driven seas of 17 to 21 
  feet will develop by Friday afternoon. 

* WHERE...Small craft advisory conditions will impact all coastal
  waters north of Cape Blanco, with strong gales and very steep 
  and hazardous seas impacting all areas Friday afternoon.

* WHEN...The Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 1 PM PST
  Friday, followed by a Gale Warning from 1 PM to 10 PM PST
  Friday. The Hazardous Seas Warning is in effect from 1 PM Friday
  to 4 PM PST Saturday. 

* IMPACTS...Strong winds and very steep seas could capsize or 
  damage vessels. Low visibility conditions are expected.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid strong winds and very steep
seas. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or
secure the vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

PZZ370-022230-
/O.CON.KMFR.SC.Y.0104.000000T0000Z-200103T2100Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.GL.W.0001.200103T2100Z-200104T0600Z/
/O.UPG.KMFR.SE.A.0001.200104T0600Z-200105T0000Z/
/O.EXB.KMFR.SE.W.0001.200104T0600Z-200105T0000Z/
Waters from Florence to Cape Blanco OR from 10 to 60 nm-
218 AM PST Thu Jan 2 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM PST FRIDAY...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM PST FRIDAY...
...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 4 PM PST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Steep seas of 13 to 15 feet at 16 seconds will continue
  through tonight, then south gales of 35 to 45 kt with gusts to
  around 50 kt and very steep and wind driven seas of 20 to 24 
  feet will develop by Friday afternoon. 

* WHERE...Small craft advisory conditions will impact all coastal
  waters north of Cape Blanco, with strong gales and very steep 
  and hazardous seas impacting all areas Friday afternoon.

* WHEN...The Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 1 PM PST
  Friday, followed by a Gale Warning from 1 PM to 10 PM PST
  Friday. The Hazardous Seas Warning is in effect from 1 PM Friday
  to 4 PM PST Saturday. 

* IMPACTS...Strong winds and very steep seas could capsize or 
  damage vessels. Low visibility conditions are expected.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid strong winds and very steep
seas. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or
secure the vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/Medford

820 
WHUS76 KMFR 022204
MWWMFR

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
204 PM PST Thu Jan 2 2020

PZZ356-376-031045-
/O.CON.KMFR.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-200103T2100Z/
/O.EXT.KMFR.SE.W.0001.200103T2100Z-200105T1800Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.GL.W.0001.200103T2100Z-200104T0600Z/
Coastal waters from Cape Blanco OR to Pt. St. George CA out 10 nm-
Waters from Cape Blanco OR to Pt. St. George CA from 10 to 60 nm-
204 PM PST Thu Jan 2 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM PST FRIDAY...
...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM
PST SUNDAY...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM PST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Steep seas of 11 to 14 feet at 15 seconds will continue
  through tonight, then south gales of 30 to 40 kt with gusts up
  to 45 kt and very steep and wind driven seas of 14 to 20 feet
  will develop Friday afternoon.

* WHERE...Small craft advisory conditions will impact all coastal
  waters south of Cape Blanco, with gales and very steep and
  hazardous seas impacting all areas Friday afternoon.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, from 1 PM to 10 PM PST Friday. 
  For the Hazardous Seas Warning, from 1 PM Friday to 10 AM PST 
  Sunday. For the Small Craft Advisory, until 1 PM PST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds and very steep seas could capsize or 
  damage vessels. Low visibility conditions are expected.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid strong winds and very steep
seas. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or
secure the vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

PZZ350-031045-
/O.CON.KMFR.SC.Y.0104.000000T0000Z-200103T2100Z/
/O.EXT.KMFR.SE.W.0001.200103T2100Z-200105T1800Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.GL.W.0001.200103T2100Z-200104T0600Z/
Coastal waters from Florence to Cape Blanco OR out 10 nm-
204 PM PST Thu Jan 2 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM PST FRIDAY...
...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM
PST SUNDAY...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM PST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Steep seas of 13 to 15 feet at 15 seconds will continue
  through tonight, then south gales of 35 to 45 kt with occasional 
  gusts to around 50 kt and very steep and wind driven seas of 17 
  to 21 feet will develop Friday afternoon.

* WHERE...Small craft advisory conditions will impact all coastal
  waters north of Cape Blanco, with strong gales and very steep 
  and hazardous seas impacting all areas Friday afternoon.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, from 1 PM to 10 PM PST Friday. 
  For the Hazardous Seas Warning, from 1 PM Friday to 10 AM PST 
  Sunday. For the Small Craft Advisory, until 1 PM PST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds and very steep seas could capsize or 
  damage vessels. Low visibility conditions are expected.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid strong winds and very steep
seas. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or
secure the vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

PZZ370-031045-
/O.CON.KMFR.SC.Y.0104.000000T0000Z-200103T2100Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.GL.W.0001.200103T2100Z-200104T0600Z/
/O.EXT.KMFR.SE.W.0001.200104T0600Z-200105T1800Z/
Waters from Florence to Cape Blanco OR from 10 to 60 nm-
204 PM PST Thu Jan 2 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM PST FRIDAY...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM PST FRIDAY...
...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO
10 AM PST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Steep seas of 13 to 15 feet at 15 seconds will continue
  through tonight, then south gales of 35 to 45 kt with occasional
  gusts to around 50 kt and very steep and wind driven seas of 20
  to 24 feet will develop Friday afternoon.

* WHERE...Small craft advisory conditions will impact all coastal
  waters north of Cape Blanco, with strong gales and very steep 
  and hazardous seas impacting all areas Friday afternoon.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, from 1 PM to 10 PM PST Friday. 
  For the Hazardous Seas Warning, from 10 PM Friday to 10 AM PST 
  Sunday. For the Small Craft Advisory, until 1 PM PST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds and very steep seas could capsize or 
  damage vessels. Low visibility conditions are expected.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid strong winds and very steep
seas. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or
secure the vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/Medford

030 
WHUS76 KMFR 031031
MWWMFR

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
231 AM PST Fri Jan 3 2020

PZZ356-376-032300-
/O.CON.KMFR.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-200103T2100Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.GL.W.0001.200103T2100Z-200104T0600Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.SE.W.0001.200103T2100Z-200105T1800Z/
Coastal waters from Cape Blanco OR to Pt. St. George CA out 10 nm-
Waters from Cape Blanco OR to Pt. St. George CA from 10 to 60 nm-
231 AM PST Fri Jan 3 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
10 PM PST THIS EVENING...
...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 10 AM PST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...High and steep seas will continue to build and south
  winds will continue to increase with gales this afternoon
  becoming strongest this evening at 35 to 40 kt with gusts up to
  50 kt. The combination of wind wave and swell will produce very
  steep seas of 14 to 19 feet this evening into early Saturday. 
  Seas remain high as conditions improve slightly Saturday into 
  Saturday night, then build to a new peak Sunday evening.

* WHERE...Small craft advisory conditions will impact all coastal
  waters south of Cape Blanco this morning. Gales and very steep
  hazardous seas impact all areas this afternoon and evening, then
  very steep seas into Sunday.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, from 1 PM to 10 PM PST Friday. 
  For the Hazardous Seas Warning, from 1 PM Friday to 10 AM PST 
  Sunday. For the Small Craft Advisory, until 1 PM PST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds and very steep seas could capsize or 
  damage vessels. Low visibility conditions are expected.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid strong winds and very steep
seas. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or
secure the vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

PZZ350-032300-
/O.CON.KMFR.SC.Y.0104.000000T0000Z-200103T2100Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.GL.W.0001.200103T2100Z-200104T0600Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.SE.W.0001.200103T2100Z-200105T1800Z/
Coastal waters from Florence to Cape Blanco OR out 10 nm-
231 AM PST Fri Jan 3 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
10 PM PST THIS EVENING...
...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 10 AM PST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...High and steep seas will continue to build and south
  winds will continue to increase with gales this afternoon
  becoming strongest this evening at 30 to 40 kt with gusts up to
  50 kt. The combination of wind wave and swell will produce very
  steep seas of 14 to 19 feet this evening into early Saturday. 
  Seas remain high as conditions improve slightly Saturday into 
  Saturday night, then build to a new peak Sunday evening.

* WHERE...Small craft advisory conditions will impact all coastal
  waters north of Cape Blanco this morning. Strong gales and very
  steep and hazardous seas impact all areas this afternoon and 
  evening, then very steep seas into Sunday.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, from 1 PM to 10 PM PST Friday. 
  For the Hazardous Seas Warning, from 1 PM Friday to 10 AM PST 
  Sunday. For the Small Craft Advisory, until 1 PM PST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds and very steep seas could capsize or 
  damage vessels. Low visibility conditions are expected.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid strong winds and very steep
seas. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or
secure the vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

PZZ370-032300-
/O.CON.KMFR.SC.Y.0104.000000T0000Z-200103T2100Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.GL.W.0001.200103T2100Z-200104T0600Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.SE.W.0001.200104T0600Z-200105T1800Z/
Waters from Florence to Cape Blanco OR from 10 to 60 nm-
231 AM PST Fri Jan 3 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
10 PM PST THIS EVENING...
...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS
EVENING TO 10 AM PST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...High and steep seas will continue to build and south
  winds will continue to increase with gales this afternoon
  becoming strongest this evening at 30 to 40 kt with gusts up to
  50 kt. The combination of wind wave and swell will produce very
  steep seas of 16 to 20 feet this evening into early Saturday. 
  Seas remain high as conditions improve slightly Saturday into 
  Saturday night, then build to a new peak Sunday evening.

* WHERE...Small craft advisory conditions will impact all coastal
  waters north of Cape Blanco this morning. Strong gales and very
  steep and hazardous seas impact all areas this afternoon and 
  evening, then very steep seas into Sunday.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, from 1 PM to 10 PM PST Friday. 
  For the Hazardous Seas Warning, from 10 PM Friday to 10 AM PST 
  Sunday. For the Small Craft Advisory, until 1 PM PST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds and very steep seas could capsize or 
  damage vessels. Low visibility conditions are expected.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid strong winds and very steep
seas. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or
secure the vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/Medford

919 
WHUS76 KMFR 032219
MWWMFR

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
219 PM PST Fri Jan 3 2020

PZZ350-356-376-041030-
/O.CAN.KMFR.SE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-200105T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KMFR.SC.Y.0001.200104T0800Z-200107T0000Z/
/O.EXT.KMFR.GL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-200104T0800Z/
Coastal waters from Florence to Cape Blanco OR out 10 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Blanco OR to Pt. St. George CA out 10 nm-
Waters from Cape Blanco OR to Pt. St. George CA from 10 to 60 nm-
219 PM PST Fri Jan 3 2020

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM
PST MONDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, south winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts
  up to 45 kt and very steep wind driven seas 12 to 17 feet. For 
  the Small Craft Advisory, west to southwest winds 10 to 20 kt 
  with gusts up to 25 kt and seas 11 to 16 feet at 13 seconds 
  expected.

* WHERE...All areas.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until midnight PST tonight. For 
  the Small Craft Advisory, from midnight tonight to 4 PM PST 
  Monday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds and very steep seas could capsize or 
  damage vessels. Low visibility conditions are expected.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid strong winds and very steep
seas. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or
secure the vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

PZZ370-041030-
/O.EXT.KMFR.GL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-200104T0800Z/
/O.NEW.KMFR.SC.Y.0001.200104T0800Z-200107T0000Z/
/O.EXT.KMFR.SE.W.0001.200104T0800Z-200105T0600Z/
Waters from Florence to Cape Blanco OR from 10 to 60 nm-
219 PM PST Fri Jan 3 2020

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM
PST MONDAY...
...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
10 PM PST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, southwest winds 25 to 35 kt with
  gusts up to 45 kt and very steep wind driven seas 13 to 17 feet.
  For the Hazardous Seas Warning, very steep wind driven seas 14
  to 16 feet expected. For the Small Craft Advisory, west to southwest
  winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 11 to 16 feet
  at 13 seconds expected.

* WHERE...Gale conditions will affect all areas. Hazardous Seas
  Warning conditions will affect most areas while Small Craft
  Advisory conditions will affect only areas between 10 and 20 NM
  between Cape Blanco Blanco and Cape Arago.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until midnight PST tonight. For 
  the Hazardous Seas Warning, from midnight tonight to 10 PM PST 
  Saturday. For the Small Craft Advisory, from midnight tonight 
  to 4 PM PST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds and very steep seas could capsize or 
  damage vessels. Low visibility conditions are expected.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid strong winds and very steep
seas. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or
secure the vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/Medford

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
928 PM PST Wed Jan 1 2020

.DISCUSSION...Current radar shows some light showers across
southern Oregon at the -0.2 degree radar tilt while the 0.5 degree
tilt remains precipitation free. Thus, the low-topped
precipitation will be extremely light if anything beyond a
sprinkle reaches the ground. These showers are behind a frontal
system that is moving through southern Oregon and northern
California. Ahead of the front, winds were breezy to gusty east of
the Cascades, but these winds have largely decreased over the last
hour or two. Thus, the wind advisory was allowed to expire.

Tomorrow, a brief ridge is in place before the next front moves
through our area on Friday bringing us some good rain and low pass
snow potential. No changes are needed in this update, but the
overnight package may bring some clarity to some upcoming weather
questions (strong winds, snow levels etc.) -Schaaf

&&

.MARINE....Updated 900 PM PST Wednesday 1 January 2020...Current
conditions are hazardous but the immediate forecast is very
straight- forward. A dominant long period west swell was very high
and very steep as it reached a peak Wednesday afternoon. It has
recently crossed a threshold down to high and steep at around 16
feet at 18 seconds. Seas will continue to gradually diminish
through late Thursday night. Southerly winds will develop Thursday
afternoon and persist into early Friday morning with the
strongest winds at advisory strength north of Cape Blanco.

The forecast becomes more complex on Friday, but hazards were
updated this evening in line with increased confidence in the
details of increasing winds and building seas. This includes
upgrading the gale watch for most of the waters to a gale warning
(with a hazardous seas warning over the remainder of the inner
waters north of Cape Arago and south of Port Orford) on Friday
afternoon and evening, and issuing a following hazardous seas watch
for all of the waters later Friday night through Saturday.

This will be a different, more common type of event for this time of
year with chaotic seas. A strong cold front is expected to produce
southerly gales by Friday afternoon, continuing through Friday
evening. Meantime, the south wind wave will combine with a building
west swell. This will result in a shorter period than that
experienced Wednesday, but seas are likely to become very high and
very steep again Friday night through Saturday with peak seas around
18 to 20 feet at 14 seconds. By early Saturday, the southerly wind
wave will have transitioned to a fresh swell, continuing to combine
with the west swell.

Conditions are then likely to improve beginning Saturday night, but
with seas remaining steep into Monday. A weaker cold front is
possible Saturday night into Sunday morning with a potential for
advisory strength southerly winds late Saturday night into Sunday,
then weak high pressure early in the week. The pattern is likely to
remain at least as active next week with the next in a series of
disturbances around Tuesday. -DW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 609 PM PST Wed Jan 1 2020/

UPDATE...Updated the aviation section.

AVIATION...For the 02/00Z TAF Cycle...Light post-frontal showers
will linger early this evening, mainly from the Cascades westward,
with a freezing level around 4500 ft msl. This will continue a mix
of IFR and MVFR at the coast, with mainly VFR inland. But,
occasional MVFR and mountain obscuration in the vicinity of showers.

Later this evening and tonight, showers will end and mid to upper
level clouds should clear. This will likely result in extensive
LIFR/IFR conditions in valley fog and low stratus decks through
Thursday morning. Conditions are expected to improve to VFR across
the area on Thursday afternoon, but valley LIFR/IFR is expected to
return Thursday evening into Friday morning. -DW

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 259 PM PST Wed Jan 1 2020/

SHORT TERM...With daylight warming lapse rates have increased
and shower activity has bumped up again this afternoon. However,
with the 500 mb cold pool shifting east the stronger instability
is east of the region and a few lightning strikes are occuring in
Harney county at this time. With an upper ridge building into the
region, and warmer temperatures aloft combining with cooling
surface temperature post sunset, shower activity will taper off
further into Thursday morning. The upper ridge shifts east ahead
of the next system that moves onto the coast late Friday
morning/early afternoon. This system will see strong winds in the
coastal waters, but with winds parallel to the coast, and even a
slight offshore component, winds are not expected to reach warning
strength, Inland the Shasta will see an increased gradient,
greater than -10 from RDD to MFR, and with south southwest winds
of 55-60 kt at 700 mb have issued a high wind watch for the Shasta
Valley and the southern Rogue Valley near Ashland. This system is
still indicating as an AR event, but it will not stall over the
area, and the heaviest precipitation is looking to be from Friday
afternoon into the evening. The front moves east by Saturday
morning with showers tapering off a bit before the next front
approaches the region by Sunday morning. Sven

LONG TERM...Next Sunday through Wednesday will feature an active
weather pattern but with breaks between systems. The heaviest
precipitation during this period will occur well to the north of our
area across Washington and southern British Columbia.

For southern Oregon and far northern California, a showery pattern
may persist into Sunday with cold air aloft but upper ridging should
build offshore with warming aloft and more stability by Sunday
afternoon. Stronger ridging will build Sunday night into Monday for
mainly dry conditions but a lot of cloud cover will still be
possible within a "dirty" ridge type pattern.

A significant cold front is expected late Tuesday or early
Wednesday. The models show varying intensities and timing with this
front but it could be associated with the most impactful weather for
southern Oregon and far northern California in terms of
precipitation, mountain snow, and wind during the extended period.
-Sandler

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...High Surf Advisory until 4 AM PST Thursday for ORZ021-022.
     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     ORZ026.

CA...High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     CAZ081.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM PST Friday for
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     Hazardous Seas Watch from Friday evening through Saturday
     afternoon for PZZ350-356-370-376.
     Gale Warning from 1 PM to 10 PM PST Friday for
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     Hazardous Seas Warning from 1 PM to 10 PM PST Friday for
     PZZ350-356-376.