Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
737 AM EDT Mon Oct 19 2020

...12z Aviation Update...

.Aviation...

Atlantic terminals will start with showers and perhaps a T'storm
this cycle. Used TEMPOs for brief reductions in VIS/CIGs. Current
radar trends show PBI getting the worst of the reductions this
mooning. Otherwise, VFR conditions with intermittent showers
through the remainder of the day. Breeze easterly flow with gusts
up to 25 knots or so may be possible, especially in convection.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 312 AM EDT Mon Oct 19 2020/

..COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT EAST COASTAL AREAS...
..HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES TODAY...

Short Term (Monday-Tuesday)...

Drier and a more stable airmass filtered into the area a little
earlier and faster than expected yesterday, with forecasted POPs
over land being too high despite the presence of a shortwave trough
moving across the area. Today, there is still lingering moisture
across SoFlo behind the departing shortwave trough, with 00z
sounding showing PWATS of 2 inches. And with the well established
ENE flow, at least some scattered showers should form and/or advect
from the coastal waters to justify carrying POPs in the 40-50
percent range.

Meanwhile, strong mid-level ridge is shown by the models, which will
remain well established across the eastern CONUS and the west
Atlantic waters during the short term. This high will ensure
continuing robust easterly winds on Tuesday with similar outlook for
POPs in the afternoon as Today. The onshore flow and high tides will
continue to combine to keep potential for coastal flooding along the
SoFlo east coast. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect through
Tuesday.

Expect temperatures to remain generally warm with highs in
the mid-upper 80s each day, along with lows mostly in the 70s.

Long Term...

Wednesday and Thursday...

Strong mid-level ridging with high pressure dominating across the
region. Breezy easterly flow will remain with  South Florida being
between the pressure gradient of a high to the north and a broader
area of lower pressure in the NW Caribbean Sea. A mid-upper level
low over the Florida straits will help advect moisture across South
Florida. Models have come into a little better agreement with there
being increased moisture across the area. Therefore, scattered to
numerous showers with a few embedded thunderstorms possible along
the easterly breeze. Convection will be diurnally enhanced  as well
with greater coverage in the afternoon and evening. High
temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s, with lows mostly in
the 70s.

Friday Through Next Weekend....

A upper level trough will be moving over the CONUS with a mid-level
shortwave over the Southeastern states late in the week with a
surface frontal boundary stalling out in Northern Florida. As we
enter the weekend this where we begin to see some discrepancy
amongst the global models with moisture content and features
between the ECMWF and GFS. How much moisture remains across the
area or if some drier mid-level air does work its way into the
region. This will have an impact on the forecast for POPs and
which features do develop and whether winds will be easterly or
more southerly. All in all higher than normal uncertainty for the
forecast next weekend. Therefore, have gone with the model blended
consensus until things begin to pan out this coming week.

Marine...
Pressure gradients remain tight today with breezy periods and
elevated seas across all the coastal waters. Increasing wind speeds
are also expected over the Lake and the offshore Gulf waters, for
which a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect. Scattered showers
and storms will also be possible, especially during the afternoon
hours. The strongest storms will be capable of producing strong
winds, brief heavy rainfall, and cloud-to-water lightning.

Aviation...
Breezy periods continue through the next 24 hours with ENE winds in
the 10-15kt range with gusts to around 25kt as pressure gradients
remain tight around the area. Kept tempos for passing layers
dropping cigs around 3K ft for some ATL terminals during the next
couple of hours. Showers and a few storms are possible this
afternoon, but any MVFR/IFR periods should be brief as cells should
be moving along with the synoptic flow.

Beach Forecast...
A high risk of rip currents remains in effect for the Atlantic
beaches as high tide and strong onshore flow continue today. Expect
periods of gusty easterly winds and elevated seas. Conditions may
continue on Tuesday. In addition, thunderstorms may be possible
again today, leading to cloud-to-ground lightning.
&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
West Palm Beach  85  76  85  75 /  50  50  50  40
Fort Lauderdale  86  77  85  77 /  50  50  50  50
Miami            85  77  84  77 /  50  50  50  50
Naples           88  75  85  74 /  40  40  50  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

     Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for FLZ168-172-173.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168-
     172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ610-630-650-
     651-670-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for GMZ656-657-676.

&&

Aviation...28/Frye

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