Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
308 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020

.Short Term...

Late Afternoon through Tuesday...

Deep layer ridging will center over the Gulf of Mexico as a series
of migratory perturbations track south through the Bahamas. Florida
will remain along the western fringe of these weak perturbations,
however a slight uptick in convective coverage is expected. While
the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) has been a limiting factor lately, the
passing waves juxtaposed with inland advancing sea- breeze forcing
should bring a slight uptick in thunderstorm development primarily
over inland areas each afternoon. Relatively steep mid-level lapse
rates associated with the SAL suggest the potential for a few robust
updrafts in the deeper thunderstorm cores, with a thermodynamic
environment supportive of strong, to perhaps locally damaging,
downburst wind gusts. Outside of convection related concerns, heat
remains the biggest weather related hazard through the short term
forecast period. Highs today and Tuesday should climb well into the
90s (perhaps even eclipsing 100 over inland southwest Florida on
Tuesday), with lows mostly in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Maximum
Heat Index readings should near or exceed Heat Advisory criteria
once again Tuesday afternoon but there is some uncertainty as to the
duration. Will hold off on a heat advisory at the moment, but we'll
continue to evaluate this concern going forward.

.Long Term...

Tuesday Night through Friday...
Mid-level subtropical high pressure will continue to weaken and
shift westward into the Gulf of Mexico, allowing for light
northwesterly flow aloft to become established across South
Florida. In the lower-levels, light/variable flow will prevail due
to a western Atlantic ridge axis extending across the Florida
peninsula. While low-level moisture should remain adequate across
the area (~1.5 inches), deep-layer moisture will be slightly lower
than average for this time of year, potentially limiting
convective coverage across South Florida through mid to late week.
Highest PoPs are ~40 percent through Friday with the highest
chances across the interior sections/Lake Region of South FL. With
that said, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
be possible each afternoon thanks to mesoscale effects, i.e. the
sea breeze.

Maximum temperatures will remain slightly above average, with
mid-upper 90s across the western portions of South Florida and
lower 90s across the eastern portions. Heat indices continue to
soar into the triple digits areawide with values near the 105 range.

Saturday through Early Next Week...

Global models continue to depict that the steering flow aloft
will transition to westerly/southwesterly as a mid-level impulse
approaches South Florida from the northwest. The GFS depicts this
feature with a higher amplitude and more progressive than the
ECMWF, including a series of vort maxima sweeping through the
state. Regardless on which model perseveres, the overall trend
will be increasing rain and thunderstorm chances across South
Florida this weekend into early next week.

At this time, it appears that the deepest moisture and heavier
rainfall will remain over the northern portions of South Florida,
but of course we will continue to monitor as we go into the week.

Like the weekdays, weekend maximum temperatures will remain
slightly above average, with mid-upper 90s across the western
portions of South Florida and lower 90s across the eastern
portions. Heat indices near 105.

&&

.Marine...
Benign conditions are expected over the next few days outside of
isolated showers and thunderstorms, which may bring locally higher
winds, seas, and potential waterspouts.

&&

.Aviation...
Afternoon shower/storms are expected primarily over inland areas.
Areas around APF/OPF/TMB will have the greatest chance of
experiencing this activity, reflected by VCTS. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected with southeast winds generally 10 kt or
less veering to southerly and southwesterly -- first at APF this
afternoon in association with the inland advance of the sea-breeze
boundary from the Gulf.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
West Palm Beach  78  93  78  93 /  20  20  10  40
Fort Lauderdale  81  93  81  92 /  20  20  10  40
Miami            82  94  80  93 /  20  30  10  30
Naples           79  93  79  92 /  30  20   0  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

Marine/Short Term...34/SPM
Aviation...90/Cohen and 34/SPM
Long Term...03/Fell

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
341 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020

FLZ073-075-174-292030-
Mainland Monroe FL-Far South Miami-Dade County FL-Inland Miami-
Dade County FL-
341 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY
UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

* At 341 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 6 miles
  east of Wilderness Waterway to 11 miles northwest of Mahogany
  Hammock. Movement was west at 10 mph.

* Small hail, funnel clouds, and winds in excess of 45 mph possible
  with these storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Northwest Cape Sable and Wilderness Waterway.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms. If
you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck! Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the
formation of funnel clouds. Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and
local media for additional updates and possible warnings.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2533 8123 2537 8120 2549 8129 2566 8136
      2570 8135 2573 8100 2537 8082 2522 8119
TIME...MOT...LOC 1941Z 088DEG 7KT 2566 8106 2542 8100

HVN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
408 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020

FLZ067-068-071-072-168-292100-
Inland Broward County FL-Coastal Palm Beach County FL-
Metro Broward County FL-Inland Palm Beach County FL-
Metro Palm Beach County FL-
408 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN BROWARD AND SOUTHEASTERN
PALM BEACH COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

* At 407 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Parkland, or near Coral
  Springs. This storm was nearly stationary.

* Small hail, funnel clouds, and winds in excess of 45 mph possible
  with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Coral Springs, Boca Raton, Deerfield Beach, Delray Beach, Tamarac,
  Margate, Coconut Creek, North Lauderdale, Parkland, Loxahatchee
  NWR, Mission Bay, Boca Pointe, Boca Del Mar, Hamptons At Boca
  Raton, Whisper Walk, Godfrey Road, Kings Point, Boca West,
  Hillsboro Pines and Villages Of Oriole.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. If
you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck! Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the
formation of funnel clouds. Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and
local media for additional updates and possible warnings.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2643 8008 2620 8024 2629 8047 2653 8029
TIME...MOT...LOC 2007Z 120DEG 1KT 2636 8030

FELL