Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
242 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2020

.Discussion...

Short Term (Today through Tuesday):
The Atlantic sea breeze has developed this afternoon and is
pushing inland over the east coast metro areas of South Florida.
The Gulf sea breeze circulation is also starting to develop. The
sea breeze is serving as an effective source for convective
initiation with the westerly flow above the surface helping to
drive storm motion to the south and east. This trend underscores
the concerns about potential heavy rainfall leading to flooding,
particularly in the urban areas, due to repeated convection
pushing off the boundary.

The storm mode this afternoon will generally feature multicellular
activity though some more discrete cells are possible, particularly
over northern and western areas. As the afternoon and evening
continues, other boundaries including outflows from storms will come
into play as the convective coverage peaks. The moist low level
atmospheric profile, instability from diurnal heating, a slice of
dry air around 700 mb, a lobe of vorticity passing the base of the
trough at the mid-levels, and the efficient ability for storms to
vent aloft could allow for robust updrafts capable of producing
damaging wind gusts, hail, and torrential rainfall.

After sunset, some lingering convection may retreat with the sea
breezes towards the coastlines. Some activity may linger through the
overnight, particularly in the Atlantic. There is a potential for
some showers to linger around the east coast as well due to the
presence of the upper level jet.

On Tuesday, showers and storms are possible again with a focus
remaining over southern portions of the peninsula. Aloft, the
cutoff low over the southeastern United States remains but the
trough axis will shift for Tuesday. Additional shortwave crossing
through the area could help support some thunderstorms in the
afternoon. Sea breezes will again form though some drier air to
the north could help limit convective coverage except for southern
portions of the peninsula which remain in the deeper moisture to
the south.

Long Term (Tuesday night-Sunday):
Forecast philosophy remains the same for the extended period. For
the next several days models depict a stalled/decaying frontal
boundary with an associated low offshore the Carolinas. Meanwhile,
a mid-upper level trough dominates the eastern seaboard, while
the southern-most portion of the boundary extends southward and
into SoFlo by Tuesday night. Over the west Atlantic, broad high
pressure should remain well in place, keeping SoFlo under a
generally easterly flow.

The described synoptic setup will keep a persisting pattern across
the area with deep tropical moisture keeping PWAT values around 2
inches. Pressure gradients may become relax enough at times to bring
winds down to light and variable, especially at night, which may
translate into slow-moving storms. Thus, localized flooding will be
more likely on those periods of light winds. POP/WX coverage remains
mostly numerous for the afternoon periods, and favoring interior and
southern portions of the CWA. Latest model solutions also show
improving dynamic support aloft as a jet approaches the area. In
addition, mid level temps cool down to around -8 to -9 celsius,
which will provide additional enhanced potential for some of the
storms to become strong or even severe at times. This scenario will
continue to evolve and we'll adjust the forecast accordingly.

In general, a wet pattern should prevail through the weekend, with
potential for periods of heavy rain and localized flooding each day.
Temperatures will remain near or just a little cooler than normals
as cloud cover and rain activity increases.

&&

.Marine...
An unsettled pattern will linger into next week. Any showers or
thunderstorms could bring locally hazardous marine conditions due
to rough seas, gusty wind, and possibly even waterspouts.

&&

.Aviation...
Convective activity is developing as the sea breeze advances
inland. Storm focus will be over the inland and southern portions
of the peninsula. Several terminals could be impacted by periods
of sub-VFR conditions with brief bouts of IFR/LIFR possible.
Convection should diminish around the terminals overnight though
some could linger over the waters. Pattern is slightly different
for Tuesday with the focus potentially remaining south and east.
Short-fused amendments will likely be necessary today.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
West Palm Beach  73 86 74 86 / 20 20 20 50
Fort Lauderdale  75 86 76 86 / 40 20 30 60
Miami            74 87 75 87 / 40 30 30 60
Naples           72 89 73 89 / 30 20 20 40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.

&&

Short term/Marine...RAG
Long term...17

Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
432 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2020

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
152045-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
432 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2020

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...
...URBAN FLOODING OF ROADWAYS POSSIBLE FOR THE METRO AREAS...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Thunderstorms: There is a chance of thunderstorms across all South
Florida and the adjacent waters today. These storms may bring urban
flooding of roadways, especially in poor drainage areas and low
laying areas, waterspouts, lightning, hail, and strong gusty wind. An
isolated severe thunderstorm can not be ruled out.

Waterspouts: Waterspouts are possible across all South Florida waters
with any showers or thunderstorms that develop. The chances are
moderate for the development over the Atlantic waters and Biscayne
Bay today.

Wind: Isolated thunderstorm wind gusts to 60 mph are possible.

Flooding: Slow moving showers and thunderstorms, or areas repeatedly
affected by showers and storms, could produce flooding. The greatest
potential for flooding will be over urban areas and coastal
locations. There is a slightly enhanced risk of significant flooding
for the Broward and Miami-Dade metro areas today.

Hail: Thunderstorms may produce small hail across South Florida.
There is a potential for isolated hail to around quarter size.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall
and an increased flooding threat could affect South Florida through
the week. Some of these storms may produce strong gusty winds and
flooding rains.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight for the east coastal areas
of South Florida. Please relay any information about observed severe
weather and flooding to the NWS while following all local, state, and
CDC guidelines.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

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