Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
246 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2020

...FEW STRONG STORMS INTERIOR/WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...

...WET PATTERN RETURNING TO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND INTO
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL...

.Short Term...
This Afternoon and Evening...

Mid to upper ridging will prevail for much of the southern Gulf of
Mexico, southwest Caribbean Sea, and western Atlantic waters. A zone
of deeper moisture and unsettled weather will remain across the
Bahamas to our east in association with a stationary front. This
pattern will maintain the prevailing east-southeast low-level flow
while advecting deeper moisture into our area. A series of weak
perturbations dropping southwest through the mean flow should
provide for cooler temperatures aloft and steepened lapse rates
through mid afternoon. Low-level forcing for ascent will be
maximized over the western interior where the Gulf and Atlantic
breezes collide. The primary thunderstorm related hazards through
this evening include lightning, strong gusty winds, heavy rainfall,
and possibly small hail. Seasonal temperatures are anticipated
tonight.

Late Tonight into Thursday...

A stronger wave aloft should arrive from the northeast as the low-
level moisture plume now over the Bahamas shifts west into our area.
Showers and a few thunderstorms should spread east across the area
during the late night/early morning hours before becoming more
numerous over the Gulf Coast and interior during the afternoon.
Similar hazards should exist with tomorrow's thunderstorms including
the potential for strong winds, heavy rainfall, and of course
frequent lightning. Temperatures will remain seasonal with lows in
the 70s and highs in the upper 80s east to the lower 90s west.

.Long Term...
The long range models are showing that the stronger wave aloft
over South Florida on Thursday will be moving into the Gulf of
Mexico on Friday. This will allow for some drier air to work into
the region from the Atlantic waters leading to more of a typical
sea breeze shower and thunderstorm activity.

The long range operation models are then splitting over the
weather pattern for this weekend into middle of next week. The GFS
operation run is showing that the mid to upper level trough over
the Tennessee Valley will not be as deep as the ECMWF keeping the
Atlantic ridge more over the Florida Peninsula along with a
developing upper level low over the western Gulf of Mexico.
However, several of the GFS ensemble models are showing the deeper
mid to upper level trough over the Tennessee Valley with a weaker
ridge of high pressure over the Western Atlantic waters like the
ECMWF model run. Therefore, the long forecast will lean to more
to the ECMWF run for this weekend into middle of next week.

This will lead more of a south/southwest wind flow over South
Florida late this weekend into middle of next week allowing for
deeper tropical moisture to work into the region from the
caribbean sea. Therefore, POPs will be in the likely to
categorical over South Florida late this weekend into middle of
next week.

The PWAT values will also be around 2 inches over South Florida
late this weekend into early next week which is again above the
90th percentile for this time of year. This could again lead to
possible flooding over South Florida from the stronger showers and
thunderstorms from late this weekend into middle of next week.

&&

.Marine...
East winds will continue through the remainder of the week across
the Atlantic and Gulf waters as steady high pressure prevails across
the western Atlantic. Generally benign boating conditions are
expected over the next few days, with the exception of locally
hazardous conditions during thunderstorms. Storm chances will be
greatest for today and Thursday, with another period of stormy
weather likely by early next week.

&&

.Aviation...
The easterly winds will continue tonight over most of TAF sites
except westerly at KAPF taf site this afternoon. VCSH for the east
coast taf sites through this evening with VCTS for KAPF taf site.
The ceiling and vis also remain in VFR conditions, but could fall
down into MVFR or even IFR conditions with any showers or
thunderstorms.

&&

.Beach Forecast...
The rip current risk may increase for the Atlantic beaches on
Thursday as onshore winds strengthen.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
West Palm Beach  91  77  86  74 /  20  30  40  10
Fort Lauderdale  90  78  85  76 /  30  40  40  10
Miami            92  77  87  76 /  30  40  50  10
Naples           94  75  90  72 /  60  40  70  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

Marine...34/SPM
Aviation...SPM/BNB
Beach Forecast...34/SPM
Short Term...34/SPM
Long Term...54/BNB

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