Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
215 AM EST Fri Feb 7 2020

.Short Term...

Today and Tonight...

A line of showers and isolated thunderstorms will move through South
Florida through Friday morning out ahead of an approaching cold
front. This line will have moved through western areas before day
break, and it will be approaching and moving through the east coast
metro areas shortly before day break through Friday morning. The
upper level dynamics will gradually pull farther to the north as
this line continues to move through, which will allow for the line
to slowly weaken as it moves through the region. The best chance for
strong to severe thunderstorms continues to remain across northern
and western areas including the Lake Okeechobee region. These areas
could see damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado through the
early morning hours. This threat does decrease farther to the south
and east, however, the threat is non zero. Gusty winds will continue
through early Friday morning until the cold front passes through.

Once the cold front moves through, winds will shift around to the
northwest. Clouds and a few showers are possible behind the front in
the morning, before some clearing takes place later in the
afternoon. Cooler temperatures will arrive as high temperatures on
Friday will range from around 70 across the northwestern interior to
the mid 70s across the east coast metro areas. Cold air advection
will continue to take place on Friday night as low temperatures drop
into the mid 40s across the northwestern interior to the upper 50s
along the east coast.

.Long Term...

Saturday through Monday...

Quasi-zonal flow will prevail across the southern CONUS with a
somewhat deamplified pattern evolving. After a cool morning on
Saturday with lows mostly in the 40s and 50s, high pressure
located to our north will promote easterly winds and a gradual
warming trend. Periodic shower chances are possible as a weak cold
front moves through the area over the weekend. This front is not
expected to have any effect on temperatures however with seasonal
readings anticipated.

Tuesday through Friday...

The wave train will remain poleward of our area during this period
as the upper flow amplifies and mid-level ridging prevails from the
Greater Antilles through the southeast Gulf of Mexico and Bahamas.
This will support Atlantic subtropical ridging whose axis will
branch westward across southern Florida during this time. The deep
layer ridge will promote a southeasterly wind flow across the area
and warming temperatures. Near average temperatures early in the
period should trend towards above average late in the week with
highs climbing well into the 80s away from the Atlantic coast.
Shower chances will remain fairly low-end through Wednesday,
possibly increasing later on Thursday into Friday as the next front
approaches the region.

&&

.Marine...

A cold front will continue to push from west to east across the
local waters through Friday morning. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms out ahead of the front will move through the Gulf
waters during the very early morning hours before day break, and
they will move through the Atlantic during Friday morning. Winds
out ahead of the front will remain gusty, and hazardous marine
conditons will continue. Seas across the offshore Gulf waters
could rise to 8 to 9 feet on Friday before slowly diminishing on
Friday night

&&

.Aviation...

Line of SHRA/TSRA out ahead of the cold front will move into KAPF
between 07 and 08z. This line will move east across South Florida
and arrive at the east coast terminals between 08 and 12z. South
winds will gust to 20 to 25 knots, then they will shift to the
southwest at 30 to 35 knots (locally higher) with TSRA. Behind the
front, winds will become NW at 10 to 15 knots this afternoon with
gusts to around 20 knots.

&&

.Beach Forecast...

There is a high risk of rip currents today across the Atlantic
and Gulf Coast Beaches. The high risk of rip currents along the
Gulf coast beaches could last into the first part of the weekend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
West Palm Beach  73  53  74  63 /  60  10  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  75  56  74  66 /  70  10  20  10
Miami            75  56  74  65 /  80  10  20  10
Naples           71  50  73  59 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday morning for FLZ069.

     High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ610-
     630-650-651-670-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

Short Term and Aviation/Beaches/Marine...55/CWC
Long Term...34/SPM

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
228 AM EST Fri Feb 7 2020

FLZ063-066-069-070-070830-
Coastal Collier County FL-Hendry FL-Inland Collier County FL-
Glades FL-
228 AM EST Fri Feb 7 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COLLIER...HENDRY AND GLADES
COUNTIES UNTIL 330 AM EST...

* At 228 AM EST, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 10 miles
  southeast of Lake Istokpoga to near Vineyards. Movement was
  southeast at 35 mph.

* Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph possible with these storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Naples, Clewiston, Labelle, Moore Haven, Lakeport, Palmdale, Ave
  Maria, Buckhead Ridge, Montura, Immokalee, Golden Gate Estates,
  Orangetree, Hendry Correctional, Port La Belle, Brighton Seminole
  Reservation, Devils Garden, Big Corkscrew Island, Vineyards, Naples
  Park and Felda.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2631 8184 2632 8166 2642 8166 2642 8156
      2685 8157 2703 8147 2703 8127 2712 8117
      2721 8117 2720 8094 2714 8087 2720 8082
      2700 8087 2691 8100 2682 8085 2646 8088
      2591 8142 2636 8145 2626 8155 2618 8185
TIME...MOT...LOC 0728Z 298DEG 32KT 2725 8118 2627 8170

Cohen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
315 AM EST Fri Feb 7 2020

FLZ063-066-067-069>071-073-075-070930-
Coastal Collier County FL-Inland Broward County FL-Hendry FL-
Inland Collier County FL-Mainland Monroe FL-
Inland Palm Beach County FL-Inland Miami-Dade County FL-Glades FL-
315 AM EST Fri Feb 7 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN COLLIER...NORTHERN
MAINLAND MONROE...NORTHERN MIAMI-DADE...EASTERN HENDRY...BROWARD AND
WESTERN PALM BEACH COUNTIES UNTIL 430 AM EST...

* At 315 AM EST, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking gusty showers along a line extending from 7 miles east of
  Moore Haven to 6 miles east of Cape Romano. Movement was southeast
  at 40 mph.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph possible with these showers.

* Locations impacted include...
  Belle Glade, Clewiston, Pahokee, South Bay, Chokoloskee, Canal
  Point, Lake Harbor, Everglades City, Plantation Island, Loop Road
  Ee Center, Carnestown, Belle Glade Camp, Copeland, Wilderness
  Waterway, Holey Land Wildlife Refuge, Hendry Correctional, Big
  Cypress National Preserve, Fortymile Bend, Miccosukee Indian
  Reservation and Okeelanta.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2696 8061 2696 8038 2605 8054 2571 8084
      2560 8115 2562 8128 2569 8135 2573 8134
      2575 8141 2579 8144 2579 8156 2687 8090
      2679 8082 2691 8070 2702 8064
TIME...MOT...LOC 0815Z 322DEG 36KT 2684 8097 2584 8158

Cohen

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