Severe Thunderstorm Warning 61, NWS Miami, FL

596 
WWUS52 KMFL 240122
SVSMFL

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
922 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2020

FLC099-240132-
/O.EXP.KMFL.SV.W.0061.000000T0000Z-200624T0130Z/
Palm Beach FL-
922 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL PALM BEACH
COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 930 PM EDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 2696 8061 2696 8042 2686 8043 2684 8070
      2690 8071 2692 8070 2698 8069 2701 8066
      2701 8063
TIME...MOT...LOC 0122Z 266DEG 15KT 2695 8047 

$$

BAXTER

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
813 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2020

.Aviation (00Z TAFs)...

Primarily VFR cond. anticipated across S. FL throughout the
period. A line of TSRA is currently over inland Palm Beach and
Broward Counties, though this activity should weaken as it
approaches the terminals over the next couple hours. High
pressure and light easterly flow should allow for sea-breeze
driven convection across inland South Florida tomorrow afternoon,
generally drifting towards the Gulf Coast through the late
afternoon.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 415 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2020/

Short Term...
Today through Wednesday...

There is a weak ridge at 500mb as well as a weak Bermuda high at
the surface. Between the two, they are hampering convective
development during the mid day. However, a decent cu field has
developed across South Florida, indicating there is plenty of
moisture, and at least some mid level instability. This mornings
sounding actually showed excellent mid level Lapse rates of
7.4C/km. PWATs should be around 2 inches. We are missing any jet
dynamics, which has helped reduce the coverage of convection for
the last couple of days. With 500mb temps at around -9C or cooler,
and NCAPE of around .4, any convection will likely be strong.
There is some weak shear, which could hamper both development and
lifespan of any storms, as the downdraft may cutoff the updraft.
But, even a subtle increase that is not forecast could allow the
storms to develop into strong to severe thunderstorms, mainly in
the interior areas, as the sea breezes have generally pushed
inland, past the metro areas already. Even though the initial
convection will be sea breeze dominated, the propagation will be a
combination of outflow boundaries and the mid level steering flow.
The 850mb flow is week, and generally out of the SSE. The 700mb
and 500mb are more WSW to W. This would likely have the convective
cells ending up near the Lake region, or maybe as far south as
Broward County. This is also reflected in the Hi-res models.

One other factor is the SAL. Looking at satellite imagery, the
edge of the SAL is approaching South Florida, from the south.
But, there is a nice, wide gradient in the SAL, from nothing, to
being under the thickest area of suspended dust. Being on the
fringe tends to allow for a stronger convective outcome. So, this
helps support strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon, if
they can get going. The main hazards will be lightning, Strong,
gusty wind, with some isolated damaging wind possible, mainly in
the interior, and around Palm Beach County. Hail also can not be
ruled out. Small to moderate is most likely, if hail forms, but,
with such a high NCAPE, and cold temps aloft, large hail of around
a quarter in size will also be possible.

With the loss of daytime heating, convective cells should quiet
down tonight, keeping the weather mostly quiet, with the exception
of maybe some isolated showers or storms over the coastal waters.

Tomorrow will be a trickier forecast. It will likely be very
similar to today. However, if the SAL is able to move over the
area, convective development may not occur at all. But, for now,
have kept mainly just a slight chances of PoPs in the forecast.
With the lack of convection, the heat index will likely be around
105 again tomorrow, especially in the western interior. There is
also a potential for the heat index to reach over 108 for several
hours. If it looks that way overnight, it may meet criteria for
an advisory.

Long Term (Wednesday Night through Monday Night)...

South Florida will be under the influence of the western periphery
of the northern Atlantic subtropical surface high through the
majority of the extended period. The associated low-level ridge axis
will remain situated near northern/central Florida, allowing for
primarily easterly lower-tropospheric flow across South Florida.
Aloft, a 500mb ridge will be situated over the Florida peninsula,
providing weak deep-layer flow/shear and large-scale subsidence
across South Florida. The low-level easterly flow regime will
maintain adequate boundary-layer moisture across the southern
peninsula, with PWs remaining near-normal for late June (1.5 to
1.8 inches). The only exception to this will be the periodic
passage of transient low-level perturbations along the easterly
flow, providing brief upticks in boundary-layer moisture at times
(near 2.0 inches). The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) plume is forecast
to primarily remain to the south of the South Florida CWA due to
the aforementioned middle-tropospheric ridge situated across the
Florida peninsula. Modestly steep mid-level lapse rates in
association with this feature could linger across the southern and
western portions of South Florida to start the extended period,
though these enhanced lapse rates should advect away from South
Florida with the bulk of the SAL plume exiting the region later
this week into the weekend.

Shallow nocturnal showers can be anticipated across the South
Florida waters (primarily the Atlantic waters) each evening and
morning due to the aforementioned low-level easterly flow regime.
Each afternoon, sea-breeze circulations should develop and advect
slightly inland, generally driving afternoon convection across
inland South Florida and the Gulf Coast each day. Most of this
convection should be limited in coverage and intensity due the
lack of any appreciable synoptic forcing for ascent and weak deep-
layer flow/shear. The deterministic global model solutions and
their ensembles depict strengthening cyclonic mid/upper-level flow
across the southern/eastern CONUS later this week into the
weekend, potentially leading to cyclogenesis across the
southeastern CONUS. While this feature is projected to remain to
the north of the South Florida CWA, an associated poleward mass
flux of rich subtropical or tropical moisture across South Florida
could allow for greater convective coverage this weekend into
early next week. Maximum temperatures are forecast to remain
slightly above average across the interior and Gulf Coast of South
Florida due to the aforementioned deep-layer high pressure and
easterly flow regime. Maximum temperatures across the eastern
portions of South Florida should remain near normal (upper 80s to
lower 90s) due to the easterly surface flow and inland-advancing
Atlantic sea-breeze.

Marine...
No significant weather under the weak upper level high and the
Bermuda high to the east. Seas should remain benign, and the
Atlantic beaches should see no significant rip currents through
the weekend. With showers and thunderstorms in the forecast, some
locally rough marine conditions are possible. These include:
Locally rough seas, strong wind, torrential rain, and waterspouts.

Aviation...
Weak high pressure continues to be in control. While there is a
weak easterly flow, the low level wind is mainly being dominated
by the sea breezes. SHRA and TSRA are highly possible in the
interior late this afternoon and evening hours. They are currently
forecast to remain inland, although they may propagate towards
the coasts. If this happens, they may need to be added to at least
a few of the TAFs. After a quiet night tonight and tomorrow
morning, another round of TSRA is possible tomorrow afternoon.
&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
West Palm Beach  76  91  77  90 /  20  20   0  20
Fort Lauderdale  78  90  79  90 /  20  20   0  20
Miami            78  91  79  91 /  20  20   0  20
Naples           76  91  76  94 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.

&&

Aviation...18/Weinman

Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
850 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2020

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
240100-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
850 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2020

...Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Possible This Afternoon...
...Heat Indices of 105 to 109 for Interior and Gulf Coast...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Thunderstorms: Scattered thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon and early evening. Some storms may become strong to severe.
The main hazards are strong, gusty wind, hail, frequent lightning,
and torrential rainfall. The greatest coverage of storms will be
across interior sections of South Florida.

Temperatures: Heat indices may reach values between 105F to 109F for
an hour or two this afternoon, especially over the western interior
and along the Gulf coast of South Florida.

Waterspouts: There is a slight chance for waterspouts in association
with showers and thunderstorms over the Atlantic waters of South
Florida and Lake Okeechobee.

Wind: Thunderstorm wind gusts of 45 to 60 mph are possible. Some of
these gusts could produce localized wind damage.

Hail: Up to quarter-sized hail will be possible today.

Flooding: Localized flooding will be possible over urban and poor-
drainage areas where thunderstorms repeatedly move over the same
locations.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
each day for the remainder of this week into the upcoming weekend.
Maximum heat-index values are forecast to reach 105 to 109 degrees
each afternoon across southwest Florida, with the highest of these
readings across interior sections.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated, however individual
spotters are encouraged to report high wind, hail, and flooding to
the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Miami. Please relay
any information about observed severe weather to the NWS while
following all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
707 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2020

FLZ067-071-240000-
Inland Broward County FL-Inland Palm Beach County FL-
707 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN BROWARD AND SOUTHWESTERN
PALM BEACH COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM EDT...

* At 706 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a cluster of strong thunderstorms 7 miles southeast of
  Holey Land Wildlife Refuge, or 22 miles south of South Bay, moving
  northeast at 15 mph.

* Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph possible with this
  storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Holey Land Wildlife Refuge, Intersection Alligator Alley And Miami
  Canal, Rotenberger Wildlife Refuge, Loxahatchee NWR and West
  Broward Rec. Area On Alligator Alley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the
formation of funnel clouds. Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and
local media for additional updates and possible warnings.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2636 8028 2609 8062 2624 8088 2635 8088
      2662 8064
TIME...MOT...LOC 2306Z 230DEG 16KT 2634 8066

BAXTER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
741 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2020

FLZ063-240030-
Glades FL-
741 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN GLADES COUNTY UNTIL
830 PM EDT...

* At 740 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 9 miles
  northwest of Brighton Seminole Reservation to 9 miles north of
  Clewiston. Movement was northeast at 15 mph.

* Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph possible with these
  storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Buckhead Ridge, Brighton Seminole Reservation and Indian Prairie
  Canal Mouth.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the
formation of funnel clouds. Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and
local media for additional updates and possible warnings.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2720 8094 2719 8091 2717 8090 2717 8088
      2714 8087 2720 8083 2718 8080 2713 8079
      2706 8085 2700 8087 2695 8100 2689 8100
      2688 8092 2682 8097 2712 8125 2712 8117
      2721 8117 2721 8094
TIME...MOT...LOC 2340Z 207DEG 12KT 2720 8113 2688 8093

BAXTER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
751 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2020

FLZ067-071-072-240030-
Inland Broward County FL-Metro Broward County FL-
Inland Palm Beach County FL-
751 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL BROWARD AND SOUTHWESTERN
PALM BEACH COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM EDT...

* At 750 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near
  Okeelanta to 13 miles north of Intersection I-75 And U.S. 27 to 9
  miles south of Mile Marker 30 On Alligator Alley. Movement was east
  at 10 mph.

* Dime size hail and winds in excess of 45 mph possible with these
  storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Pembroke Pines, Miramar, Coral Springs, Davie, Plantation, Sunrise,
  Weston, Cooper City, Parkland, Sawgrass Mills Mall, Intersection
  I-75 And U.S. 27, Intersection I-75 And Griffin Road, Mile Marker
  30 On Alligator Alley, East Toll Gate On Alligator Alley,
  Loxahatchee NWR and Markham Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms. If
you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck! Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the
formation of funnel clouds. Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and
local media for additional updates and possible warnings.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2669 8046 2639 8027 2597 8034 2597 8065
      2630 8058 2654 8075
TIME...MOT...LOC 2350Z 251DEG 10KT 2653 8067 2633 8051 2602 8057

BAXTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
822 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0733 PM     HAIL             3 WSW BRIGHTON SEMINOLE 27.07N  81.11W
06/23/2020  E0.88 INCH       GLADES             FL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            THE BRIGHTON RESERVATION POLICE REPORTED NICKEL SIZE
            HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WITH THE STORMS IN CANE
            HILL AREA OF THE RESERVATION.

&&

EVENT NUMBER MFL2000153

BNB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
825 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2020

FLZ067-240115-
Inland Palm Beach County FL-
825 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY
UNTIL 915 PM EDT...

* At 825 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Belle Glade, moving northeast
  at 10 mph.

* Dime size hail and winds in excess of 45 mph possible with this
  storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Belle Glade, Pahokee, Canal Point and Fremd Village-Padgett Island.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the
formation of funnel clouds. Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and
local media for additional updates and possible warnings.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2659 8060 2674 8074 2691 8060 2670 8038
TIME...MOT...LOC 0025Z 237DEG 8KT 2671 8062

BAXTER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
843 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2020

FLZ067-240130-
Inland Palm Beach County FL-
843 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL PALM BEACH COUNTY
UNTIL 930 PM EDT...

* At 843 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Canal Point, moving east at 15
  mph.

* Small hail and winds in excess of 45 mph possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Pahokee and Canal Point.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the
formation of funnel clouds. Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and
local media for additional updates and possible warnings.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2699 8062 2696 8061 2696 8042 2686 8043
      2684 8070 2690 8071 2692 8070 2698 8069
      2701 8066 2701 8063
TIME...MOT...LOC 0043Z 266DEG 15KT 2693 8064

BAXTER