Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Miami, FL

384 
WWUS52 KMFL 211825
SVSMFL

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
225 PM EDT Thu May 21 2020

FLC086-211845-
/O.CON.KMFL.SV.W.0038.000000T0000Z-200521T1845Z/
Miami-Dade FL-
225 PM EDT Thu May 21 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM EDT
FOR NORTHWEST MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...

At 224 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Pennsuco to 7 miles west of Miccosukee Resort,
moving north at 5 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Hialeah, Doral, Miami Lakes, Hialeah Gardens and Sweetwater. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
Miami. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 2595 8030 2576 8037 2570 8067 2594 8058
TIME...MOT...LOC 1824Z 172DEG 5KT 2586 8043 2577 8061 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

RAG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
141 PM EDT Thu May 21 2020

.Aviation...
TSRA/VCTS have developed across the interior and east coast
this afternoon. Have included tempos for these terminals in the
event any strong gusts impact the airfields over the next several
hours. Winds should diminish overnight, gradually becoming
easterly by the end of the TAF period.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 944 AM EDT Thu May 21 2020/

Update...

A quieter start to the morning compared to yesterday. However,
GOES- 16 visible satellite imagery reveals very little in the way
of cloud cover, which will allow for plentiful insolation across
the peninsula. And with warm, moisture-rich southerly flow in
place, both the Gulf and Atlantic sea breezes should be able to
push inland and become the focus for convective development this
afternoon. In fact, the morning 21.12Z MIA sounding already
exhibits convective potential with 3232 j/kg of surface-based
CAPE. This value should grow upwards to approx. 4000 j/kg, as
daytime heating increases and works in concert with low- level
moisture already in place.

As a shortwave that is apparent in water vapor imagery pushes
eastward, a pocket of colder air will continue to advect across
South Florida, dropping 500mb temperatures (which are already
cooler than average) to around -10 to -11 deg C. This colder air
aloft, combined with low-level lapse rates near 8 degC/km this
afternoon due to the sufficient warming, indicate there is a
potential for the development of a few strong to severe storms.
With DCAPE values already around 1200 j/kg, locally strong
downbursts will be one of the main hazards, along with hail, heavy
rainfall, and frequent lightning.

While highly uncertain, it is not out of the realm of possibility
for few a funnel clouds to materialize, where locally enhanced
SRH develops with backed southeast to easterly winds along the the
Atlantic sea breeze boundary. Overall, greatest convective
coverage should be across the interior, with southerly flow
shifting the concern near the Lake Okeechobee region later in the
afternoon through early evening. Current timing of convection is
between 1PM EDT to 8PM EDT. Please stay informed with the latest
forecast information from NWS Miami as these potential hazards
evolve.

Prev Discussion... /issued 746 AM EDT Thu May 21 2020/

Aviation...
Generally SE flow across the terminals through the TAF period,
with the exception of KAPF, which should veer westerly after 18Z
as the Gulf seabreeze pushes inland. TSRA should develop over the
interior this afternoon, owing to VCSH in the TAFs. However, at
this time, confidence in coverage over the airfields remains too
uncertain and will monitor VCTS/TSRA as the day unfolds and will
handle with amendments as necessary.

Prev Discussion... /issued 305 AM EDT Thu May 21 2020/

A Few Strong To Severe T'storms Possible Today...

Short Term (Today through Friday Night)...
Looking aloft, a very interesting mid and upper level pattern
currently resides across the eastern portions of the United States.
A rex block characterized by a deep upper level low across the
Tennessee Valley and an upper level high across the Great Lakes.
This pattern is will remain locked into place through at least
Friday before a kicker amplifies across the central plains and
begins to eject the upper low north and east with time.

All this will translate to an upper level cold pocket across the
southeast. An H5 vort lobe/spoke will rotate over the region today
and will help spark additional diurnal convection, especially
combined with the sea breeze interaction and any residual boundaries
that linger. With the aforementioned cool pocket aloft, lapse rates
will favor moderate instability. Forecast soundings are still
showing and inverted V sounding as well as favorable DCAPE values,
which will be supportive of a few damaging wind gusts. The taller,
more robust updrafts may contain small hail, especially across the
Lake Okeechobee region. Furthermore, waterspout potential will
increase today with favorable low level winds. We'll need to watch
individual boundaries offshore for this potential. Finally, with
an overall weaker flow aloft and PWATs starting to approach 2",
especially up around the lake, some localized flooding may be
possible.

As the impulse begins to move northward away from the region today,
weak upper level ridging will begin to move into the region, which
should overall limit convection overnight, except across the coastal
waters. With the subsidence and lower rain chances, temperatures
will be a degree or two higher on Friday with much of the region
exceeding 90 degrees, especially along the Gulf coast.

Long Term (Saturday through Wednesday)...
Going into the weekend, high pressure aloft remains mostly in
control. Still can't rule out daily sea breeze convection,
especially across the interior as a summerlike pattern begins to set
up. This diurnal convective pattern similar again to a summerlike
pattern will continue through the long term, however, the upper
levels look fairly interesting. Another blocking pattern begins to
set up early next week with the ridge parked over the eastern US
trapping an upper level low across the western Gulf of Mexico and
another near Bermuda. This setup is tricky. Will an active southerly
flow develop or will the high be close enough to allow for lighter
upper level winds and subsidence (a bit drier)? The models
indicate our region will be stuck between all three. The overall
outcome looks to be about the same, again as stated
above...summerlike convection and warmth, but we'll lean a bit
more toward a warmer solution with the highest heights/thicknesses
somewhat closer.

Marine...
The surface flow will gradually back to an easterly direction today
and will persist through the upcoming weekend and likely beyond.
Seas have started to increase across the Atlantic as northeasterly
swells from what once was TS Arthur have started to affect portions
of the Atlantic coast. Some hazardous boating conditions will be
possible as 5 to 7 ft swells build today and persist into Friday.
Some improvement is forecast later this weekend and early next week,
however, scattered diurnally driven convection will be possible each
day, which could locally agitate seas, generate frequent cloud-to-
water lightning, and possibly produce waterspouts.

Beach Forecast...
A moderate to high risk of rip currents will be present across the
Atlantic beaches today into Friday as northeasterly swells from what
once was TS Arthur interact with our coastline. No issues expected
along the Gulf outside of a few scattered T'storms.
&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
West Palm Beach  88  74  86  75 /  30   0  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  87  77  86  77 /  20   0  10  10
Miami            88  76  86  76 /  20   0  10  20
Naples           88  72  90  72 /  10  10  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for AMZ650-670.

GM...None.
&&

Aviation...11/HVN

Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
1107 AM EDT Thu May 21 2020

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
220315-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
1107 AM EDT Thu May 21 2020

...A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY...
...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS BEACHES FOR PALM BEACH COUNTY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ATLANTIC WATERS FOR PALM BEACH COUNTY...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

Rip Currents: There is a High Risk of Rip Currents along the beaches
of Palm Beach County and a Moderate Risk of Rip Currents along rest
of the east coast beaches of South Florida.

Thunderstorms: Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible
across South Florida with the best coverage over the interior and
Lake Okeechobee region. A few of the storms could become strong with
the primary hazards being gusty winds, frequent lightning strikes,
small hail, and heavy rainfall.

Wind: Strongest storms could produce wind gusts up to 50 mph, and
perhaps greater in one or two storms especially over the interior
areas.

Hail: Strongest storms could produce hail up to penny size.

Flooding: Heavy rainfall from thunderstorms, and repeated rounds of
showers and storms, can produce flooding in low lying and poor
drainage areas, especially over the interior areas of South Florida.

Seas: The seas will be building up to 7 feet in the gulf stream
waters of Palm Beach County due to northeast swells. A Small Craft
Advisory in effect for the Atlantic waters off Palm Beach County.

Waterspouts: There is a Moderate chance of waterspouts with any
thunderstorms and showers that do develop over the Atlantic and
Biscayne Bay waters and a slight chance over the Gulf and Lake
Okeechobee waters.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

There will be a chance of daily thunderstorms across South Florida
through the weekend into early next week. Gusty winds, locally heavy
rainfall, lightning, and waterspouts will be possible with the
strongest storms.

A long period northeast swell from once was Tropical Storm Arthur
will continue across the Atlantic waters of South Florida through
early this weekend. This will allow for the Atlantic seas to remain rough
especially over the Palm Beach Atlantic waters through early this
weekend.

The threat of rip currents for Atlantic beaches will also continue
into this weekend as winds become more easterly over South Florida
along with the northeast swells.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed over the interior areas. Please
relay any information about observed severe weather to the NWS while
following all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
137 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0135 PM     HAIL             COCONUT CREEK           26.27N 80.19W
05/21/2020  E0.70 INCH       BROWARD            FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A TRAINED SPOTTER CALLED TO REPORT DIME SIZE
            HAIL NEAR SAMPLE ROAD AND LYONS ROAD.

&&

KELLY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
139 PM EDT Thu May 21 2020

FLZ071>075-174-211830-
Inland Broward County FL-Mainland Monroe FL-Metro Broward County FL-
Metropolitan Miami Dade FL-Far South Miami-Dade County FL-
Inland Miami-Dade County FL-
139 PM EDT Thu May 21 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN MAINLAND MONROE...
MIAMI-DADE AND SOUTH CENTRAL BROWARD COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM EDT...

* At 139 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Intersection Krome And Kendall
  Drive, or 10 miles northwest of The Redland, moving northeast at 5
  mph.

* Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph possible with this
  storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Hialeah, Pembroke Pines, Miramar, Davie, Homestead, Homestead
  General Airport, Miami Gardens, The Redland, Kendall, Weston,
  Doral, Miami Lakes, Hialeah Gardens, Opa-Locka, Miami Springs,
  Sweetwater, Florida City, Medley, Westchester and Palm Springs
  North.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2528 8059 2550 8109 2599 8071 2609 8041
      2595 8020
TIME...MOT...LOC 1739Z 211DEG 6KT 2567 8057

SPM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
140 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0111 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 NNW BOCA RATON        26.39N 80.12W
05/21/2020                   PALM BEACH         FL   PUBLIC

            A PHOTO OF A FUNNEL CLOUD WAS REPORTED IN
            BOCA RATON WEST OF I-95 AND SPANISH RIVER
            BLVD, LOOKING WEST TOWARD MILITARY TRAIL.

&&

KELLY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
141 PM EDT Thu May 21 2020

FLZ067-068-071-072-172-211830-
Inland Broward County FL-Coastal Broward County FL-
Metro Broward County FL-Inland Palm Beach County FL-
Metro Palm Beach County FL-
141 PM EDT Thu May 21 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BROWARD COUNTY UNTIL 230 PM
EDT...

* At 141 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm over Tamarac, moving southwest at 10
  mph.

* Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph possible with this
  storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Fort Lauderdale, Pembroke Pines, Coral Springs, Pompano Beach,
  Davie, Plantation, Sunrise, Deerfield Beach, Tamarac, Margate,
  Lighthouse Point, Lauderhill, Weston, Coconut Creek, Oakland Park,
  North Lauderdale, Lauderdale Lakes, Cooper City, Parkland and
  Wilton Manors.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the
formation of funnel clouds. Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and
local media for additional updates and possible warnings.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2637 8026 2628 8008 2599 8027 2620 8055
TIME...MOT...LOC 1741Z 044DEG 7KT 2624 8031

SPM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
145 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     HAIL             2 W CORAL SPRINGS       26.27N 80.30W
05/21/2020  E0.88 INCH       BROWARD            FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A TRAINED SPOTTER CALLED TO REPORT NICKEL
            SIZE HAIL NEAR SAMPLE ROAD AND SAWGRASS
            EXPRESSWAY.

&&

KELLY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
152 PM EDT Thu May 21 2020

FLZ067-068-168-211830-
Coastal Palm Beach County FL-Inland Palm Beach County FL-
Metro Palm Beach County FL-
152 PM EDT Thu May 21 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL PALM BEACH COUNTY UNTIL
230 PM EDT...

* At 152 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Wellington, moving northeast at
  10 mph.

* Dime size hail, funnel clouds, and winds in excess of 45 mph
  possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  West Palm Beach, Wellington, Palm Beach Gardens, Greenacres, Royal
  Palm Beach, Haverhill, Schall Circle, Royal Palm Estates, Lake
  Belvedere Estates, Golden Lakes, Loxahatchee Groves, Lion Country
  Safari Park, The Acreage, Loxahatchee NWR, Mangonia Park, Lakeside
  Green, Plantation Mobile Home Park, Stacey Street, Florida Gardens
  and Century Village.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2650 8025 2657 8044 2686 8035 2675 8007
TIME...MOT...LOC 1752Z 204DEG 10KT 2661 8032

RAG