Gale Warning 4, NWS Miami, FL

003 
WHUS72 KMFL 142053
MWWMFL

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Miami FL
453 PM EDT Thu May 14 2020

AMZ650-651-670-671-151200-
/O.EXP.KMFL.SC.Y.0023.000000T0000Z-200514T2100Z/
/O.CON.KMFL.GL.W.0004.200514T2100Z-200516T0000Z/
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-
453 PM EDT Thu May 14 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...East winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and seas 
  7 to 10 feet expected.

* WHERE...Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL 
  out 20 NM, Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield 
  Beach FL out 20 NM, Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef 
  FL from 20 to 60 NM excluding the territorial waters of 
  Bahamas and Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL 
  from 20 to 60 NM.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.  

A sudden onset of rough seas may cause hazardous conditions,
which may occur suddenly at jetties and inlets. These conditions
could catch boaters by surprise. Boaters should remain in port.

&&

$$

AMZ630-151200-
/O.EXT.KMFL.SC.Y.0023.000000T0000Z-200514T2100Z/
/O.EXA.KMFL.GL.W.0004.200514T2100Z-200516T0000Z/
Biscayne Bay-
453 PM EDT Thu May 14 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, northeast winds 15 to 25 kt with
  gusts up to 35 kt and rough conditions expected. 

* WHERE...Biscayne Bay.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until 8 PM EDT Friday. 

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause rough conditions which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.  

A sudden onset of rough seas may cause hazardous conditions,
which may occur suddenly at jetties and inlets. These conditions
could catch boaters by surprise. Boaters should remain in port.

&&

$$

AMZ610-GMZ656-657-676-151200-
/O.EXT.KMFL.SC.Y.0023.000000T0000Z-200516T0000Z/
Lake Okeechobee-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
453 PM EDT Thu May 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and
  waves of 2 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...In Gulf of Mexico, Coastal waters from East Cape Sable 
  to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM, Coastal waters from Chokoloskee 
  to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM and Waters from Chokoloskee to 
  Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM. In Lake Okeechobee, Lake 
  Okeechobee.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.  

A sudden onset of rough seas may cause hazardous conditions,
which may occur suddenly at jetties and inlets. These conditions
could catch boaters by surprise. Boaters should use caution when
entering or exiting the inlets and jetty areas.

&&

$$

208 
WHUS72 KMFL 150800
MWWMFL

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Miami FL
400 AM EDT Fri May 15 2020

AMZ650-651-670-671-160000-
/O.CON.KMFL.GL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-200516T0000Z/
/O.EXB.KMFL.SC.Y.0023.200516T0000Z-200516T1200Z/
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-
400 AM EDT Fri May 15 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM
EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, east winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts
  up to 35 kt and seas 5 to 8 feet today. For the Small Craft
  Advisory, northeast winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and
  seas 4 to 7 feet expected tonight.

* WHERE...Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach 
  FL out 20 NM, Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean 
  Reef FL out 20 NM, Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield 
  Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM and Waters from Deerfield Beach to 
  Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM excluding the territorial 
  waters of Bahamas.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until 8 PM EDT this evening. For 
  the Small Craft Advisory, from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT 
  Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.  

A sudden onset of rough seas may cause hazardous conditions,
which may occur suddenly at jetties and inlets. These conditions
could catch boaters by surprise. Boaters should remain in port.

&&

$$

AMZ630-160000-
/O.CON.KMFL.GL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-200516T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMFL.SC.Y.0024.200516T0000Z-200516T1200Z/
Biscayne Bay-
400 AM EDT Fri May 15 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM
EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, east winds around 20 kt with gusts
  up to 35 kt and seas around 2 feet today. For the Small Craft
  Advisory, northwest winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt 
  and seas 1 foot or less expected tonight.

* WHERE...Biscayne Bay.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until 8 PM EDT this evening. For 
  the Small Craft Advisory, from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT 
  Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.  

A sudden onset of rough seas may cause hazardous conditions,
which may occur suddenly at jetties and inlets. These conditions
could catch boaters by surprise. Boaters should remain in port.

&&

$$

AMZ610-GMZ656-657-676-160000-
/O.CON.KMFL.SC.Y.0023.000000T0000Z-200516T0000Z/
Lake Okeechobee-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
400 AM EDT Fri May 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 1 to 4 feet.

* WHERE...In Gulf of Mexico, Coastal waters from East Cape Sable 
  to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM, Coastal waters from Chokoloskee 
  to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM and Waters from Chokoloskee to 
  Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM. In Lake Okeechobee, Lake 
  Okeechobee.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.  

A sudden onset of rough seas may cause hazardous conditions,
which may occur suddenly at jetties and inlets. These conditions
could catch boaters by surprise. Boaters should use caution when
entering or exiting the inlets and jetty areas.

&&

$$

Baxter

950 
WHUS72 KMFL 151400
MWWMFL

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Miami FL
1000 AM EDT Fri May 15 2020

AMZ650-651-670-671-152200-
/O.CON.KMFL.GL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-200516T0000Z/
/O.CON.KMFL.SC.Y.0023.200516T0000Z-200516T1200Z/
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-
1000 AM EDT Fri May 15 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, east winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts 
  up to 35 kt and seas 5 to 8 feet today. For the Small Craft 
  Advisory, northeast winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt 
  and seas 4 to 7 feet expected tonight.

* WHERE...Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach 
  FL out 20 NM, Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean 
  Reef FL out 20 NM, Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield 
  Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM and Waters from Deerfield Beach to 
  Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM excluding the territorial 
  waters of Bahamas.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until 8 PM EDT this evening. For 
  the Small Craft Advisory, from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT 
  Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

A sudden onset of rough seas may cause hazardous conditions,
which may occur suddenly at jetties and inlets. These conditions
could catch boaters by surprise. Boaters should remain in port.

&&

$$

AMZ630-152200-
/O.CON.KMFL.GL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-200516T0000Z/
/O.CON.KMFL.SC.Y.0024.200516T0000Z-200516T1200Z/
Biscayne Bay-
1000 AM EDT Fri May 15 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, east winds around 20 kt with 
  gusts up to 35 kt and seas around 2 feet today. For the Small 
  Craft Advisory, northwest winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 
  20 kt and seas 1 foot or less expected tonight.

* WHERE...Biscayne Bay.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until 8 PM EDT this evening. For 
  the Small Craft Advisory, from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT 
  Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

A sudden onset of rough seas may cause hazardous conditions,
which may occur suddenly at jetties and inlets. These conditions
could catch boaters by surprise. Boaters should remain in port.

&&

$$

AMZ610-GMZ656-657-676-152200-
/O.CON.KMFL.SC.Y.0023.000000T0000Z-200516T0000Z/
Lake Okeechobee-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
1000 AM EDT Fri May 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 1 to 4 feet.

* WHERE...In Gulf of Mexico, Coastal waters from East Cape Sable 
  to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM, Coastal waters from Chokoloskee 
  to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM and Waters from Chokoloskee to 
  Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM. In Lake Okeechobee, Lake 
  Okeechobee.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

A sudden onset of rough seas may cause hazardous conditions,
which may occur suddenly at jetties and inlets. These conditions
could catch boaters by surprise. Boaters should use caution when
entering or exiting the inlets and jetty areas.

&&

$$

370 
WHUS72 KMFL 152108
MWWMFL

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Miami FL
508 PM EDT Fri May 15 2020

AMZ650-651-670-671-160515-
/O.EXT.KMFL.GL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-200516T1200Z/
/O.CAN.KMFL.SC.Y.0023.200516T0000Z-200516T1200Z/
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-
508 PM EDT Fri May 15 2020

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT...

* WHAT...North winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and seas 
  2 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL 
  out 20 NM, Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield 
  Beach FL out 20 NM, Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef 
  FL from 20 to 60 NM excluding the territorial waters of 
  Bahamas and Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL 
  from 20 to 60 NM.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.  

A sudden onset of rough seas may cause hazardous conditions,
which may occur suddenly at jetties and inlets. These conditions
could catch boaters by surprise. Boaters should remain in port.

&&

$$

AMZ630-160515-
/O.EXT.KMFL.GL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-200516T1200Z/
/O.CAN.KMFL.SC.Y.0024.200516T0000Z-200516T1200Z/
Biscayne Bay-
508 PM EDT Fri May 15 2020

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT...

* WHAT...Frequent wind gusts up to 35 kt in showers and 
  thunderstorms.

* WHERE...Biscayne Bay.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.  

A sudden onset of rough seas may cause hazardous conditions,
which may occur suddenly at jetties and inlets. These conditions
could catch boaters by surprise. Boaters should remain in port.

&&

$$

AMZ610-GMZ656-657-676-160000-
/O.CON.KMFL.SC.Y.0023.000000T0000Z-200516T0000Z/
Lake Okeechobee-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
508 PM EDT Fri May 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and 
  seas 1 to 3 feet.

* WHERE...In Gulf of Mexico, Coastal waters from East Cape Sable 
  to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM, Coastal waters from Chokoloskee 
  to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM and Waters from Chokoloskee to 
  Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM. In Lake Okeechobee, Lake 
  Okeechobee.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.  

A sudden onset of rough seas may cause hazardous conditions,
which may occur suddenly at jetties and inlets. These conditions
could catch boaters by surprise. Boaters should use caution when
entering or exiting the inlets and jetty areas.

&&

$$

656 
WHUS72 KMFL 160142
MWWMFL

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Miami FL
942 PM EDT Fri May 15 2020

AMZ630-650-651-670-671-160945-
/O.CON.KMFL.GL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-200516T1200Z/
Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-
942 PM EDT Fri May 15 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and seas 
  2 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...In Biscayne Bay, Biscayne Bay. In Atlantic, Waters 
  from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM 
  excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas, Waters from 
  Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM, Coastal 
  waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM and 
  Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 
  NM.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.  

A sudden onset of rough seas may cause hazardous conditions,
which may occur suddenly at jetties and inlets. These conditions
could catch boaters by surprise. Boaters should remain in port.

&&

$$

588 
WHUS72 KMFL 160718
MWWMFL

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Miami FL
318 AM EDT Sat May 16 2020

AMZ650-651-670-671-170000-
/O.CAN.KMFL.GL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-200516T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KMFL.SC.Y.0025.200516T0718Z-200517T0000Z/
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-
318 AM EDT Sat May 16 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...West winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt and seas 1
  to 4 feet near-shore up to 7 feet in the Gulf stream.

* WHERE...Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach 
  FL out 20 NM, Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean 
  Reef FL out 20 NM, Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield 
  Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM and Waters from Deerfield Beach to 
  Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM excluding the territorial 
  waters of Bahamas.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.  

A sudden onset of rough seas may cause hazardous conditions,
which may occur suddenly at jetties and inlets. These conditions
could catch boaters by surprise. Boaters should use caution when
entering or exiting the inlets and jetty areas.

&&

$$

AMZ630-160830-
/O.CAN.KMFL.GL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-200516T1200Z/
Biscayne Bay-
318 AM EDT Sat May 16 2020

...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The wind gusts have fallen below the gale warning conditions early
this morning and will remain below gale warning conditions today. 
Therefore,, the Gale Warning has been cancelled for Biscayne Bay 
waters.

$$

Baxter

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
724 AM EDT Thu May 14 2020

.Aviation...
VFR conditions for the east coast terminals. APF continues to see
occasional reductions in CIG/VIS due to FU and HZ from nearby
wildfires. Gusty easterly winds will continue throughout the
forecast period. RA chances begin to increase toward the end of
the cycle. Occasional bouts of passing SHRA may result in periods
of MVFR or even IFR CIGS and VIS throughout the day today but
confidence on timing and coverage too low to introduce into TAFs
at this time. Short fused AMDs may be necessary.

&&

.Update...
Quick early morning update -- added areas of smoke to
portions of Collier County through the morning hours due to the
present wildfire and strong easterly flow blowing smoke into metro
areas. Included Lake Okeechobee in the Small Craft Advisory, so
all local waters are expecting SCA conditions through at least
tomorrow morning. Gale force wind gusts have been seen across
portions of the Atlantic waters thus far this morning though not
prevalent enough to issue a Gale Warning. Will be watched, of
course.

Bumped high temps up a few degrees today. Strong, gusty winds will
keep elevated fire weather concerns across the area today, however
minimum RH values are well above minimum criteria thresholds.

New zones and HWO have been transmitted.

Lastly, due to the fire in Collier County, the Naples NOAA weather
radio (WWG-92) 162.525 MHZ is off the air. Use the Ft. Myers
Station (WXK-83) 162.475 MHZ until service has been restored.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 318 AM EDT Thu May 14 2020/

..RAINY AND WINDY THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND...
..HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE...

Short Term (Today through Friday)...
We are currently monitoring a plume of moisture across the FL
Straits and lower Keys early this morning. The latest MFL RAOB
showed a persistent dry air pocket in the mid levels, however,
there has been some gradual moistening in this area. That said, a
isolated shower may be possible through sunrise, especially in
Miami-Dade south of the HWY 41 corridor.

Moisture will continue to gradually stream into the region.
Thankfully, increasing clouds will keep temperatures a few degrees
cooler today than yesterday across the interior and southwest.
As a result, RH values will not be as low (see fire weather
section). Guidance suggest that better rain chances only
gradually move northward as the aforementioned dry pocket
continues to erode.

So, what about the highly advertised subtropical low? Models over
the last 24-36 hours have trended slightly west with the
development of this feature, albeit very weak. In fact, the
operational GFS is have trouble determining where the low finally
closes off in a very elongated/broad region of lower pressures.
The 00z GFS actually develops multiple low centers with the most
dominant low eventually developing under a QPF spike (convective
feedback) area. While it's likely the more dominant low will
develop under the deepest convection, at least initially, the
overall uncertainty exists where this will specifically occur.

The exact numbers are still a bit low confidence as well.
Depending on the development and track of the low will decided how
much rainfall our region will get with a further east
track/development leading to less much needed rainfall. At this
point, the heaviest rainfall looks to be right along the Atlantic
Coast where 2-3 (locally higher amounts possible) can be expected.
Around 1/2-3/4 possible across the interior and Gulf coast. With
the developing low pressure and proximity of a strong high
pressure across the western Atlantic, easterly winds will be gusty
yet again through the short term period. In fact, with pressure
gradient tightening even more, expect to meet advisory criteria
along the Atlantic today. Elsewhere, another SPS to highlight
possible crosswinds on north to south roadways.

Long Term...

Saturday through Wednesday...

The primary feature of interest early in the period is the low
pressure system (potentially with subtropical characteristics) which
is forecast to track northeast away from the northern Bahamas
through early next week. Thereafter the synoptic picture will be
dominated by mid-latitude troughing progressing through the eastern
states, along with an attendant cold front. This front may be in the
vicinity of central or southern Florida late in the period.

There is some uncertainty with rainfall trends over the weekend
as this will depend on the track and intensity of the low pressure
system. Some model solutions (14.00z GFS for example) wrap dry
and subsident air around the back side of the departing low rather
quickly, ending precipitation chances early on. Other solutions
(such as the 14.00z ECMWF) are slower to move the moisture pool
away from our area, with better shower chances potentially
lingering through part of Saturday. Given the current low
predictability will defer to the model blended solutions for PoPs,
which split the difference and gradually taper precipitation
chances off from west to east through the day on Saturday. Lower
end shower chances should persist into early next week owing to
forcing from sea breeze boundaries and a possible frontal zone
approaching the area. Winds should generally lighten through the
extended period as the low pressure system departs and the
pressure gradient relaxes. A warming trend is anticipated for
temperatures given the decreased cloud coverage with readings near
seasonal normals expected for much of the period.

Marine...
Adverse marine conditions continue. First, strong easterly flow
continues with hazardous winds and seas already ongoing. SCA
conditions expected for most waters through the end of the week
except Lake Okeechobee, however, even the lake may need an upgrade
from cautionary headlines later this afternoon if pressure
gradient is a bit tighter than currently forecast. Outside of the
uptick in winds and seas, rain and T'storm chances increase as a
surface trough develops and moves through our Atlantic waters
today through early Saturday. We'll need to watch this feature as
models have it developing into a closed subtropical low Friday
night or early Saturday. Where the low develops will have some
implications on winds, seas, and rainfall potential.

Beach Forecast...
Rip current risk will remain high along the Atlantic coast as
moderate to strong easterly winds continue. Rain chances begin to
increase during the day today and especially overnight.
Thunderstorms will be possible with some cloud-to-ground lightning
not out of the question.

Fire Weather...
Clouds and moisture continue to gradually increase across south
Florida. This should help keep RH values from dropping below 50%
today. That said, gusty winds will continue to be present. Rain
chances do increase later in the day, however, it appears the best
potential will be east of the ongoing wildfires.
&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
West Palm Beach  83  73  80  71 /  20  40  80  60
Fort Lauderdale  82  73  79  73 /  20  50  80  50
Miami            83  73  80  72 /  30  50  70  50
Naples           88  70  83  70 /  20  30  70  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for FLZ068-072-074-168-
     172>174.

     High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ610-630.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for GMZ656-657-676.

&&

Update...03/Fell
Aviation...03/Fell

Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
708 AM EDT Thu May 14 2020

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
142315-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
708 AM EDT Thu May 14 2020

...HAZARDOUS MARINE AND BEACH CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND...
...STRONG GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Rip Currents: There is a high risk of rip currents for the Atlantic
Beaches.

Wind: Easterly winds around 20 to 25 knots with higher gusts across
both the Gulf and Atlantic waters. A Small Craft Advisory is in
effect for all coastal waters, including Lake Okeechobee. A few gale
force wind gusts may be possible across the Atlantic waters
throughout the time period. A Wind Advisory has also been issued for
the immediate Atlantic Coast for wind gusts equal to or exceeding 35
mph.

Waves: Waves of 4 to 7 feet will be possible across the Atlantic
waters with the highest in the Gulf Stream.

Thunderstorms: Rain and thunderstorm chances will begin to increase
across the region today. Gusty winds, brief heavy rainfall, and
lightning will be possible in the strongest activity.

Visibility: Areas of smoke due to a wildfire across portions of
western Collier County. Visibility may be affected at times.

Fire: An elevated fire weather risk continues today due to strong,
gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Hazardous marine and beach conditions will continue through much of
the week. Gusty easterly winds are expected to continue into Friday.

Rain and thunderstorm chances will continue across the region Friday
through early Saturday. Gusty winds, locally heavy rainfall,
lightning, and waterspouts will be possible with these showers and
storms, with the greatest chances across the East Coast metro areas
and Atlantic waters.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

Fell

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
742 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0736 AM     WILDFIRE         4 S NORTH BLOCKS GOLDE  26.17N  81.54W
05/14/2020  E4000 ACRE       COLLIER            FL   PARK/FOREST SRVC

            FLORIDA DIVISION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT RELAYED
            REPORTS FROM FORESTRY OFFICIALS OF A WILDFIRE NEAR 36TH
            AVE AND 22ND AVE IN COLLIER COUNTY. MULTIPLE RESIDENCES
            HAVE BEEN DESTROYED AND DAMAGED. A MANDATORY EVACUATION
            ORDER IS IN PLACE FOR STRUCTURES NORTH OF I-75, WEST OF
            EVERGLADES BLVD, AND EAST OF GARLAND RD. THE WILDFIRE IS
            ESTIMATED TO BE 4000 ACRES.

&&

EVENT NUMBER MFL2000056

FELL