Flood Watch 6, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
810 PM EDT Tue Oct 20 2020

.AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...

Convection around the eastern terminals should continue producing
sub-VFR conditions and strong wind gusts at times through around
2-3z. Higher than average shower/storm chances should persist
overnight, with an uptick possible around/after 06z, possibly
continuing until 14-15z tomorrow. Sub-VFR conditions and gusty
winds are possible with this round as well. Rain chances may
decrease somewhat for the eastern terminals later tomorrow, but
confidence in trends currently low. Future changes, including
amendments and TEMPOs, are possible tonight into tomorrow.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 339 PM EDT Tue Oct 20 2020)

Short Term (Rest of Today through Tomorrow)...

With the exception of the quasi-stationary band of convection
extending south of Grand Bahama to Broward/Palm Beach Counties,
only isolated showers have developed across the region thus far
today. Much of the heavier rainfall has remained south across the
Keys. Models are still hinting at a bit of a surge of moisture
basically extending from the Bahamas close to the previously
mentioned band of convection. Models do show a slight uptick in
rainfall intensity and coverage, however, the confidence is still
rather low. Little in the way of destabilization is occurring
right now as cloud cover is limiting surface heating.

Going into tonight guidance again shows scattered to possibly
numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms across the region.
Continued previous POPs through the short term. With ample
moisture filtering into the region as well as a disturbance across
the western Caribbean/southern Gulf, this solution is supported.
PWATs are a bit lower on the 12z MFL RAOB, but better moisture
quality isn't far away upstream. Hydro concerns will come into
play along the Atlantic. Thankfully we miss the last high tide
cycle with little ongoing rainfall, but we will need to pay
attention to the next high tide as any salt water intrusion may
limit runoff if the heavier showers and storms are realized across
the Atlantic Metro. For this, WPC continues the marginal
excessive rainfall risk for today and tomorrow.

Long Term (Thursday through Tuesday)...

An area of high pressure located over the eastern portion of the
country will continue to push towards South Florida through the
end of the week as Epsilon continues to move north northwestward
in the Atlantic towards the Bermuda area. This will allow for the
easterly flow to continue across the region through the end of
the week. There will still be ample moisture in place to support a
chance of showers and thunderstorms each day during this time
frame. The coverage of showers and thunderstorms will decrease as
the end of the week progresses due to the area of high pressure
pushing southward. High temperatures during this time frame will
generally range from the mid 80s across the east coast to the
upper 80s across the interior sections.

Things become more uncertain as the weekend approaches due to
differences in the latest computer model guidance. The ECMWF shows
the influence of a mid level trough to the north digging in
farther to the south. This will allow for deep tropical moisture
to move into the region which would increase the chances of
showers and thunderstorms during this time frame. The GFS is
showing a drier solution through the weekend and into early next
week as it shows this mid level trough not amplifying as much and
an area of high pressure building into the region from the Gulf
quicker which would allow for some drier air to work into the
region. Due to the conflicting model solutions, the confidence in
the forecast for the weekend remains low and a blend of model
solutions was used keeping in a chance of showers and
thunderstorms in during this time frame. Early next week, there
will be enough moisture in place to support the chance of showers
and thunderstorms, however, the coverage may not be as widespread
due high pressure trying to build in from the Gulf of Mexico. High
temperatures will generally range from the mid 80s across the
east coast to the upper 80s over the interior through the weekend.

Marine...

Hazardous marine conditions will likely remain across the
Atlantic and Gulf coastal waters through tonight as pressure
gradient remains tight. Periods of gusty easterly winds can be
expected at least through Wednesday. Some improvement gradually
expected for the Gulf and Lake waters as the trough over the
western Caribbean progresses downstream. In addition to gusty
winds, convection will agitate seas and/or lake waters through the
remainder of the week at times.

Aviation (18z Aviation Update)...

MVFR conditions have plagued the terminals this morning. The
forecast has been a bit too optimistic so added MVFR, but VFR
breaks are likely between showers through the evening. Showers are
then expected through the overnight and into the day on Wednesday.
In fact, CIGs may drop back into the MVFR range toward the end of
the cycle as stratus builds down toward the surface. Moderate
easterly winds will continue, especially across the Broward and
Palm Beach terminals.

Beach Forecast...

Prev Discussion... /issued 301 AM EDT Tue Oct 20 2020/

Breezy easterly flow remains in place, with a high risk of rip
currents continuing for the Atlantic coast beaches through the
middle of the week. In addition, there will continue to be the
possibility of coastal flooding at the times of high tide across
the coastal areas along the east coast later through Wednesday.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
West Palm Beach  84  75  84  76 /  70  60  60  50
Fort Lauderdale  85  77  85  77 /  70  60  60  50
Miami            84  76  84  76 /  70  60  60  60
Naples           85  74  84  74 /  70  60  70  50

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            76  84  77  86 /  80  80  50  50
West Kendall     76  84  76  87 /  80  80  60  50
Opa-Locka        75  83  75  85 /  80  80  50  50
Homestead        76  83  76  85 /  70  70  60  50
Fort Lauderdale  76  84  77  86 /  80  80  50  50
N Ft Lauderdale  76  83  76  85 /  80  80  50  50
Pembroke Pines   76  85  77  87 /  80  80  50  50
West Palm Beach  75  83  75  85 /  70  70  50  50
Boca Raton       76  86  77  87 /  80  70  50  50
Naples           74  85  74  88 /  50  90  50  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ610.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ630-650-651-
     670-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for GMZ656-657-676.

&&

Update...SPM
Tonight/Wednesday and Marine...Frye
Wednesday Night through Tuesday...CWC

Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
355 PM EDT Tue Oct 20 2020

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
210800-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
355 PM EDT Tue Oct 20 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

Rip Currents: There is a High risk of Rip Currents at the Atlantic
Coast beaches.

Coastal Flooding: Higher than normal tides (highest predicted tides
of the year) could lead to minor coastal flooding around periods of
high tide.

Flooding: Heavy rainfall with multiple rounds of showers possible,
this may lead to localized flooding, especially along coastal areas
during periods of high tide.

Thunderstorms: A few thunderstorms will be possible over South
Florida. Primary impacts from the thunderstorms will be lightning
strikes, brief gusty winds and heavy rainfall.

Wind: Gusty winds in excess of 20 knots across all South Florida
waters. Wind gusts up to 45 mph are also possible within any showers
and storms today over water and land.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Hazardous marine conditions will be possible through mid week.

Coastal flooding due to higher than normal tides is possible during
times of high tide through at least mid-week.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms with main impacts being heavy
rainfall with the potential for localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated, however individual
spotters especially east coast metro areas are encouraged to report
high wind, waterspouts, and flooding to the National Weather Service
forecast office in Miami. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

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