Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Miami, FL

597 
WGUS72 KMFL 270113
FFSMFL

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
913 PM EDT Tue May 26 2020

FLC086-270122-
/O.CAN.KMFL.FF.W.0012.000000T0000Z-200527T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Miami-Dade FL-
913 PM EDT Tue May 26 2020

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The heavy rain has ended but flooding is still ongoing. Therefore, 
the Flash Flood Warning has been replaced with a Flood Warning. 
Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 2577 8018 2575 8019 2574 8021 2566 8025
      2561 8029 2556 8029 2557 8044 2577 8026

$$

BAXTER

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
344 PM EDT Tue May 26 2020

.Short Term...

A negatively tilted trough now located across the Gulf of Mexico
will lift north and dampen as weak geopotential height rises
gradually encompass the region. Low-level troughing now evident
across central Florida will gradually shift away to the north as
Atlantic ridging noses in from the east. This will keep the low-
level winds southerly for today before shifting more SSE on
Wednesday. Some drying is noted aloft as compared with the previous
24 hours, and cooling at 500 mb is anticipated by this afternoon.
This will allow for some steepening of mid-level lapse rates to
occur. Plentiful low-level moisture is still available as evidenced
by the 26.12z MFL sounding, which had a precipitable water value of
1.84 inches. This reservoir of moisture should be readily available
for tapping into by convection today before it decreases on
Wednesday. Warm cloud depths have decreased somewhat from yesterday,
but should be in the 10-12 kft range by this afternoon. This points
towards efficient warm rain processes within convection today, with
the combined low-level forcings of sea breezes and nearby troughing
contributing to convective initiation. Given southerly surface winds
and southwesterly steering flow the greatest shower and thunderstorm
coverage should occur over the east coast metro areas this
afternoon. Unfortunately this is the area most suceptible to
hydrological issues, given 48 hour rain totals in the 3 to 7 inch
range with isolated higher amounts. Decent saturation is still
noted via the MRMS QPE-Crest Soil Moisture Analysis, which shows
several pockets of soil moisture exceeding 50 percent (notable
considering our fairly sandy and well draining soil types). This
suggests that runoff from impervious surfaces may be impeded today
given the slower absorption anticipated by natural ground cover.
As for QPF, comparing the synoptic and mesoscale models suggests
areal averages of 0.5 to 1 inches for the east coast metro and
coastal areas, with isolated amounts exceeding 3 inches possible.
This is in line with the high end (90th percentile) amounts
suggested by our Probabilistic QPF Forecast, which is meant to
represent a potential reasonable worse case scenario. Therefore
wouldn't be surprised if additional flood advisories or warnings
are needed this afternoon given the projected rainfall and
sensitivity of these areas to additional rainfall. Given
sufficient precipitation loading, a few stronger wind gusts are
possible today as well in any taller thunderstorm cores. The
cooler temperatures aloft suggest that lightning activity may be
a little more widespread today as well. High temperatures today
should be in the 80s given the more widespread clouds and rain,
warming into the upper 80s to lower 90s by Wednesday.

.Long Term...
A mid to upper level low will weaken over the Central United
States late this week into this weekend, as high pressure builds
into the Florida Peninsula from the Western Atlantic waters. This
will allow for a easterly wind flow over South Florida late this
week leading to more of a typical summer weather pattern with late
night/morning shower and thunderstorm activity eastern areas
shifting to the interior and west coast metro areas in the
afternoon and evening hours.

An mid to upper level low is forecast by the long range models to
move southward from Canada into the Northern Atlantic waters early
next week which will weaken the high over the Western Atlantic
Waters. This should allow for a weak back door cold front to work
southward and into South Florida before stalling out. At the same
time, the long range models are trying to show lower pressures
over the Western Caribbean and Bay of Campeche which will allow
for the pressure gradient to tighten over South Florida leading to
a breezy northeast wind flow. POPs will also remain in the
scattered range for early next week with the highest chances over
the interior and west coast metro areas.

&&

.Marine...

A transition to a more summer-like pattern is expected over the next
day or so with the usual afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
Otherwise, generally benign marine conditions are expected.

&&

.Aviation...

Scattered showers and storms will continue for the interior and
east coast areas this afternoon. Impacts to the terminals are
possible with sub-VFR conditions and strong gusty winds. Storms
should diminish this evening, with less widespread rain coverage
tomorrow. Southerly winds today become more SSE on Wednesday.

&&

.Beach Forecast...

A high risk of rip currents is forecast for the East Coast today due
to breezy onshore winds.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
West Palm Beach  74  87  76  86 /  40  50  20  40
Fort Lauderdale  77  87  78  86 /  50  50  20  30
Miami            77  88  77  87 /  50  40  10  30
Naples           75  87  74  88 /  20  30  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ067-068-071>074-
     168-172>174.

     High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

Short Term/Aviation/Marine/Beach Forecast...34/SPM
Long Term...54/BNB

Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
1034 AM EDT Tue May 26 2020

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
270245-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
1034 AM EDT Tue May 26 2020

...Flooding And A Few Strong Storms Possible East Coast...
...High Risk of Rip Currents for Atlantic Beaches...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Thunderstorms: Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the
area this afternoon and evening.

Wind: The stronger storms may produce wind gusts over 45 mph.

Flooding: Torrential rainfall will be possible in the heaviest
showers and thunderstorms, which could lead to flooding of poor
drainage areas, small streams, creeks, and canals. A Flood Watch is
in effect for Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties.

Rip Currents: There is a high risk of rip currents along the
Atlantic beaches.

Waterspouts: There is a chance of waterspouts over the local waters.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon with lightning, gusty
winds, and locally heavy rainfall possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
632 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NNE LIBERTY CITY      25.85N  80.21W
05/26/2020                   MIAMI-DADE         FL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            WATER COVERING THE SOUTH ONRAMP OF I-95 AT NW79TH ST UP
            TO WAST DEEP REPORTED BY MEDIA.

&&

EVENT NUMBER MFL2000125

BNB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
635 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NE LIBERTY CITY       25.84N  80.21W
05/26/2020                   MIAMI-DADE         FL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MEDIA REPORTED STREET FLOODING AT NW 7TH AVE AND NW
            71ST UP TO KNEE HIGH.

&&

EVENT NUMBER MFL2000126

BNB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
656 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0651 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SW LIBERTY CITY       25.81N  80.25W
05/26/2020                   MIAMI-DADE         FL   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC CALLED IN AND SAID THEY ARE STRAINED AT THEIR
            BUSINESS JUST NE OF MIAMI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, DUE TO
            FLOODING CAUSING IMPASSABLE STREETS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER MFL2000127

BNB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
700 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 W MIAMI SPRINGS       25.82N  80.32W
05/26/2020                   MIAMI-DADE         FL   NWS EMPLOYEE

            FAA ARTCC HAVING FLOODING ON WEST SIDE OF CAMPUS. WATER
            IS ENTERING INTO AN ANNEX BUILDING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER MFL2000128

SI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
707 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0703 PM     HEAVY RAIN       MIAMI                   25.77N  80.20W
05/26/2020  M6.42 INCH       MIAMI-DADE         FL   ASOS

            ASOS AT MIA REPORTED 6.42 INCHES IN THE LAST 2 HOURS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER MFL2000129

BNB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
708 PM EDT Tue May 26 2020

FLZ073>075-173-174-270015-
Mainland Monroe FL-Metropolitan Miami Dade FL-Far South Miami-
Dade County FL-Inland Miami-Dade County FL-
Coastal Miami Dade County FL-
708 PM EDT Tue May 26 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL MAINLAND MONROE AND
CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM EDT...

* At 708 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from
  University Of Miami to near Homestead General Airport. These storms
  were nearly stationary.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph possible with these storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Miami, Miami Beach, Homestead, Coral Gables, Key Biscayne, South
  Miami, Homestead Miami Speedway, Black Point, Homestead General
  Airport, The Redland, Turkey Point, Virginia Key, Kendall, Doral,
  Pinecrest, Miami Springs, Sweetwater, Florida City, West Miami and
  Westchester.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the
formation of funnel clouds. Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and
local media for additional updates and possible warnings.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 2560 8013 2553 8009 2530 8022 2535 8027
      2529 8033 2530 8039 2524 8043 2526 8044
      2523 8049 2521 8049 2524 8055 2528 8096
      2578 8063 2582 8008 2565 8008
TIME...MOT...LOC 2308Z 297DEG 3KT 2573 8027 2548 8060

HVN