Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
209 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday)...
Indeed storms proximal to the surface boundary are ongoing and
expected into the evening hours. Localized heavy rainfall and a
gusty wind are the main byproducts.

The heat index values above 105 are not quite as widespread as
thought going into today.  The convection has had impact and dew
points are a bit lower as well in a number of spots. The advisory
will expire at 7 am LT.  Speaking of heat advisory, have considered
the possibility of issuing for Friday, however will hold off for now
as forecast readings are largely just below 105. Thus, will allow
later shifts to better pinpoint areas and assess confidence in
making criteria.

Additionally, thunderstorms again will threaten on Friday with a
diurnal flavor.  This may too have an impact on our heat index
topping out above 105.

 Belles

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)...
The upper ridge is boss across the region this forecast period. Hot
and humid with diurnal convection is generally our lot in life
for the next week. There are some exceptions as a weak trough
slips by the from late Tuesday into early Thursday. This may
increase the coverage of the convection for our area and
potentially knock back temps a shade.

 Belles

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS

Thunderstorms scattering about this afternoon in vicinity of the
surface boundary.  VCTS til 00Z for those TAF sites most proximal to
the boundary.  Have decided on mainly a diurnal trend to the
convection, however at JBR the VCTS is a little earlier for Thursday
with CAMs suggesting the potential from storms coming from MO/NRN
AR.

 Belles

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Clay-Craighead-
     Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lee AR-Mississippi-Phillips-
     Poinsett-St. Francis.

MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Alcorn-Benton MS-
     Calhoun-Chickasaw-Coahoma-DeSoto-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS-
     Marshall-Monroe-Panola-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
     Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Yalobusha.

TN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Benton TN-Carroll-
     Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Hardeman-
     Hardin-Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-Madison-
     McNairy-Obion-Shelby-Tipton-Weakley.

&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
202 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020

TNZ004-021-022-161930-
Carroll TN-Benton TN-Henry TN-
202 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 230 PM CDT
FOR...

Northeastern Carroll County in western Tennessee...
Southwestern Benton County in western Tennessee...
South central Henry County in western Tennessee...

At 202 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing winds at least 40 mph
was located near Vale, or 7 miles northeast of Huntingdon, moving
east at 15 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in northeastern Carroll...southwestern Benton and south
central Henry Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3602 8843 3620 8838 3617 8802 3591 8810
TIME...MOT...LOC 1902Z 283DEG 14KT 3610 8832

WOODALL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
233 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020

TNZ021-022-162000-
Carroll TN-Benton TN-
233 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 300 PM CDT
FOR...

Northeastern Carroll County in western Tennessee...
Southwestern Benton County in western Tennessee...

At 233 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing winds at least 40 mph
was located near Bruceton, or near Huntingdon, moving east at 15 mph.

Very heavy rain along with cloud to ground lightning are also
possible with this thunderstorm. Remember, if you come across a
flooded area, turn around don't drown.

People in northeastern Carroll and southwestern Benton Counties
should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3586 8809 3597 8842 3615 8836 3614 8821
      3612 8821 3614 8819 3612 8801
TIME...MOT...LOC 1933Z 285DEG 14KT 3605 8831

WOODALL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
302 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020

ARZ035-036-048-162030-
St. Francis AR-Cross AR-Crittenden AR-
302 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 330 PM CDT
FOR...

Northeastern St. Francis County in eastern Arkansas...
Southeastern Cross County in eastern Arkansas...
West central Crittenden County in eastern Arkansas...

At 302 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing winds at least 40 mph
was located near Parkin, moving east at 10 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in northeastern St. Francis...southeastern Cross and west
central Crittenden Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3514 9067 3527 9066 3529 9027 3508 9029
TIME...MOT...LOC 2002Z 269DEG 8KT 3521 9054