Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1147 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2020

.UPDATE...
Updated 06z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 821 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2020/

UPDATE...Evening update.

Rain will increase in coverage and intensity through the night
with the possibility of a few thunderstorms by sunrise. Severe
thunderstorms are not expected overnight, but strong to severe
storms are possible tomorrow, mainly across North Mississippi as a
warm front lifts Northward and a strong upper level Jet shifts
across the area.

30

DISCUSSION...

Skies are clear across the Mid-South with weak high pressure
centered over western TN. Temperatures are in the the upper 50s to
low 60s and will rise a couple of degrees by the evening hours. A
pretty nice day overall even though were on the cool side, but
winds are at least light out of the south-southeast. An upper-
level trough is located upstream of the Mid-South over the Desert
Southwest.

High pressure will quickly move out of the region as the longwave pattern
remains relatively flat and zonal. Weak systems will continue to
track along the 300mb level jet axis with another shortwave
moving through the area tomorrow afternoon and into Monday early
morning. The associated low pressure system will track through
central MS, northern AL, and out to the Carolinas. Showers and
storms will be possible from early Sunday morning and through
Sunday evening. The warm front will move through the very southern
tier of counties of the County Warning area. For this reason, the
SPC has placed a Slight Risk over the far southern counties with
areas north placed in a Marginal Risk. The far northern counties
in MS and points north are not in a severe weather risk category
at this time as most of the strong storms that develop are
forecast to stay just along the front and areas south. However,
the track of the warm front will be key because any movement even
slightly north than what's currently forecast, would bring a
greater risk for severe weather for portions of the Mid-South. The
highest instability and best dynamics are expected to stay south
of the Mid-South. Guidance shows MLCAPE being pinched off just
along the border of the County Warning area, however, MLCAPE
around 1,000-1,500 J/kg is expected in the Slight and Marginal
Risk areas. Damaging wind and large hail will be the primary
threats for severe weather hazards. Temperatures will top out in
the low 60s to low 70s.

A ridge will develop over eastern CONUS to kick off the workweek
which will bring northwest flow and quiet weather through midweek.
We'll stay dry through Wednesday with temperatures in the upper
60s to upper 70s for highs and lows mainly in the 50s. Humidity
will remain low as well which will set up a really nice beginning
to the week.

An upper-level trough will develop over the Desert Southwest
Tuesday night and track through the Mid-South on Wednesday through
Thursday. Showers and storms are expected through Thursday. Models
have been inconsistent with this system and the current trend has
been a slower solution. We'll have to continue to monitor trends
for the potential of severe weather.

KRF

&&

.AVIATION...
/00z TAFs/
Conditions will gradually deteriorate to MVFR tomorrow morning as
showers and perhaps an elevated thunderstorm move through the
area. Current short range models indicate a lull in showers by 16z
then another round will approach the area by 18/19z. Confidence
is low that ever site will see TSRA but TUP should see the best
potential for any thunder during this period. Showers will move
out of JBR and possibly MEM by 04/05z.

SGW

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
331 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-201045-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
331 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Through midevening, there is a Marginal Risk for severe
thunderstorms south of a line from West Helena Arkansas to
Batesville and Tupelo Mississippi. There is a Slight Risk for
severe thunderstorms south of a line from Charleston to Aberdeen
Mississippi.

The primary severe weather risks include large hail and damaging
winds. There is a secondary threat of a brief tornado over the
Slight Risk area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday night and
early Thursday, mainly south of Interstate 40.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through midevening over east
central Arkansas and north Mississippi. Please relay any
information about observed severe weather to the NWS, while
following all local, state and CDC guidelines.

PWB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
304 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

MSZ020-190845-
Tallahatchie MS-
304 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 345 AM CDT
FOR...

Tallahatchie County in northwestern Mississippi...

At 303 AM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger was located near Drew, moving east at 50 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in Tallahatchie County should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3381 9018 3381 9045 3399 9045 3407 9024
      3407 9014 3412 9013 3416 8996 3405 8993
      3383 8993 3381 9005 3381 9014 3379 9014
      3379 9017
TIME...MOT...LOC 0803Z 249DEG 42KT 3383 9060

KRM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
338 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

MSZ020-021-190930-
Tallahatchie MS-Yalobusha MS-
338 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 430 AM CDT
FOR...

Southern Tallahatchie County in northwestern Mississippi...
Yalobusha County in northwestern Mississippi...

At 337 AM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger was located 7 miles northeast of Minter City, or 15 miles
southwest of Charleston, moving east at 45 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in southern Tallahatchie and Yalobusha Counties should monitor
this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3381 9018 3381 9030 3395 9035 3418 8961
      3387 8954 3387 8977 3390 8977 3390 8992
      3382 8993 3382 8998 3381 8998 3381 9014
      3378 9014 3378 9017
TIME...MOT...LOC 0837Z 260DEG 38KT 3384 9024

KRM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
353 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

MSZ020-190945-
Tallahatchie MS-
353 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 445 AM CDT
FOR...

Southeastern Tallahatchie County in northwestern Mississippi...

At 353 AM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger was located over Ruleville, moving east at 45 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in southeastern Tallahatchie County should monitor this storm
closely.

LAT...LON 3370 9030 3372 9031 3374 9031 3375 9029
      3376 9019 3378 9017 3381 9018 3381 9031
      3383 8993 3382 8993 3382 8998 3381 8998
      3381 9014 3372 9014 3372 9022 3374 9024
      3369 9027
TIME...MOT...LOC 0853Z 263DEG 39KT 3372 9055

KRM