Severe Thunderstorm Warning 202, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
635 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020

.UPDATE...
Updated 12z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 312 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020/

DISCUSSION...

SKies are mostly clear across the Mid-South early this morning
with temperatures ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s. An area
of thunderstorms has been moving across portions of western
Kentucky and has begun to move into middle Tennessee. In addition,
a weak frontal boundary extends across southern Missouri through
northwest Oklahoma and into southeast New Mexico.

The frontal boundary will drop further south into the Mid-South.
This front will provide a focus for additional thunderstorm
development later today. Temperatures will be a little cooler
today with this boundary moving into the region with highs in the
upper 80s to around 90. With slightly cooler temperatures expected
today, heat index values should remain around 100 degrees this
afternoon so a Heat Advisory is not needed at this time.

The frontal boundary will continue to push south into north
Mississippi tonight with any thunderstorms that develop confined
to southern sections of the Mid-South. Temperatures will be
seasonally warm tonight with lows Monday morning in the upper 60s
to lower 70s.

By Monday, high pressure will build into the region bringing dry
weather to the Mid-South. Temperatures will be a little warmer on
Monday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Heat index values
should remain around 100 degrees on Monday. High pressure will
remain over the region on Tuesday bringing another day of dry
weather. Temperatures will be even warmer on Tuesday with highs in
the low to mid 90s. In addition, heat index values should exceed
105 degrees over southern and western sections of the Mid-South so
a Heat Advisory may be needed.

By Wednesday, a new cold front will move into Missouri. Some of
the thunderstorms that develop ahead of this front may reach
northern and eastern sections of the Mid-South Wednesday or
Wednesday night. The front will remain stalled out over central
Missouri on Thursday and Friday with a few thunderstorms possibly
reaching the Mid- South during the late morning or afternoon
hours both days.

By Saturday, the frontal boundary will have fallen apart leaving
the Mid-South dry. Temperatures will remain on the hot side from
Wednesday through Saturday with afternoon highs in the mid 90s.
Heat index values across the much of the Mid-South will be in the
105-110 range each day.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...
/12z TAFs/
Made some big changes to the 06z TAF set. Short range models
indicate TSRA not really affecting the TAF sites, so have taken
out the TEMPO group. There's still a chance for shower development
at each TAF site so still have VCSH through the morning. TUP has
the best chance for seeing TSRA but confidence is low. The other
change made was to winds. Winds will begin to gust to 16/15kts
later this afternoon and persist through the evening. They will
quickly become calm around 01z.

SGW

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
334 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-131045-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
334 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

High heat index values will return to the Mid-South by Tuesday and
continue through much of the upcoming week. Heat index values
between 105 and 110 degrees with be found across much of the Mid-
South during this period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
716 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020

MSZ021>023-121245-
Calhoun MS-Yalobusha MS-Chickasaw MS-
716 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 745 AM CDT
FOR...

Calhoun County in northeastern Mississippi...
Southeastern Yalobusha County in northwestern Mississippi...
Southwestern Chickasaw County in northeastern Mississippi...

At 716 AM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing winds at least 40 mph
was located near Pittsboro, or 20 miles southeast of Water Valley,
moving southeast at 30 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in Calhoun...southeastern Yalobusha and southwestern Chickasaw
Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3387 8951 3387 8962 3406 8941 3381 8889
      3381 8893 3375 8893 3375 8903 3374 8904
      3374 8919 3372 8919 3372 8951
TIME...MOT...LOC 1216Z 295DEG 26KT 3390 8945

SGW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
729 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020

TNZ002>004-021-022-055-121315-
Carroll TN-Weakley TN-Benton TN-Decatur TN-Obion TN-Henry TN-
729 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 815 AM CDT
FOR...

Northeastern Carroll County in western Tennessee...
Weakley County in western Tennessee...
Benton County in western Tennessee...
Northeastern Decatur County in western Tennessee...
Northeastern Obion County in western Tennessee...
Henry County in western Tennessee...

At 729 AM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing winds in excess of 40
mph was located over Vale, or 10 miles northwest of Camden, moving
southeast at 30 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in northeastern Carroll...Weakley...Benton...northeastern
Decatur...northeastern Obion and Henry Counties should monitor this
storm closely.

LAT...LON 3613 8792 3597 8802 3594 8800 3594 8793
      3591 8793 3577 8798 3572 8803 3567 8802
      3650 8905 3650 8842 3622 8795
TIME...MOT...LOC 1229Z 307DEG 24KT 3613 8826

SGW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
738 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020

MOZ115-TNZ001>003-019-020-121315-
Pemiscot MO-Weakley TN-Lake TN-Obion TN-Dyer TN-Gibson TN-
738 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 815 AM CDT
FOR...

Northeastern Pemiscot County in southeastern Missouri...
Southwestern Weakley County in western Tennessee...
Lake County in western Tennessee...
Obion County in western Tennessee...
Northeastern Dyer County in western Tennessee...
Northwestern Gibson County in western Tennessee...

At 738 AM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing winds at least 40 mph
was located near Cloverdale, or 9 miles southeast of Reelfoot Lake
State Park, moving southeast at 30 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in northeastern Pemiscot...southwestern Weakley...Lake...
Obion...northeastern Dyer and northwestern Gibson Counties should
monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3650 8904 3621 8867 3586 8908 3590 8913
      3597 8914 3600 8919 3595 8921 3638 8981
      3639 8975 3643 8973 3640 8967 3641 8961
      3634 8954 3638 8951 3643 8955 3646 8952
      3650 8954 3650 8949 3646 8947 3650 8942
TIME...MOT...LOC 1238Z 307DEG 24KT 3628 8928

SGW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
754 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020

MSZ006-TNZ091-092-121345-
Tishomingo MS-McNairy TN-Hardin TN-
754 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 845 AM CDT
FOR...

Northern Tishomingo County in northeastern Mississippi...
Southeastern McNairy County in western Tennessee...
Southern Hardin County in western Tennessee...

At 754 AM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing winds at least 40 mph
was located over Shiloh, or near Pickwick Landing State Park, moving
southeast at 20 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in northern Tishomingo...southeastern McNairy and southern
Hardin Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3501 8820 3499 8820 3496 8818 3492 8815
      3490 8813 3489 8810 3482 8811 3506 8846
      3527 8832 3506 8798 3501 8799
TIME...MOT...LOC 1254Z 306DEG 15KT 3511 8832

SGW

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>