Severe Thunderstorm Warning 197, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1228 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020

.UPDATE...

Updated for the 18Z Aviation Discussion

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1025 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020/

UPDATE...Morning Update.

DISCUSSION...

Temperatures have warmed up quickly this morning under partly
cloudy skies. Raised afternoon highs slightly. No
rain/thunderstorms are ongoing across the Midsouth but storms are
approaching from the West and may begin do develop ahead of the
approaching storms as temperatures warm into the upper 80s. Most
of North Mississippi and portions of East central Arkansas remain
under a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 651 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020/

A warm and muggy night across the Mid-South at this hour.
Temperatures are sitting at a balmy 73 degrees with dewpoint
depressions two or less across the majority of the area. A few
showers and thunderstorms were noted on KNQA 88-D radar. These
showers and thunderstorms are located just ahead of a cold front
analyzed from Marion, Illinois west southwest through the Poplar
Bluff, Missouri.

The aforementioned front is expected to sag south through the
afternoon hours today. CAMs are not too excited about activity
along the front as it moves through eastern Arkansas and west
Tennessee. Convective activity will likely be inhibited this
morning due to increasing heights downstream of a mature MCS over
the north Texas. The front will likely stall somewhere near the
Tennessee and Mississippi border by early afternoon and serve as a
foci for convective initiation. Storms are expected to pop around
1PM. 20-25 knots of bulk shear combined with a moderately to
strongly unstable airmass will allow for at least a few organized
storms this afternoon. These storms will be capable of producing
damaging winds and possibly a few instances of large hail.
Although steering flow does not look particularly impressive, some
enhancement in the wind fields will be possible if an MCV ejects
into our area from the west. Will bump up wording and confidence
to reflect the increased threat. The majority of activity will
come to an end near sundown as the front pushes south of the area
and instability wanes.

Wednesday will be mostly dry across much of the Mid-South as the
front remains stalled over north Mississippi. Renewed convective
activity is expected along the boundary during the afternoon
hours. With a moisture rich airmass in place and very little
steering flow, there is some concern for flash flooding near the
boundary. Will continue to mention the threat in the HWO for now.
The front will remain over the same area through Thursday, with
mainly diurnal convection expected once again. WPC has highlighted
a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall along and around the front
through this period.

By Friday, a lot of uncertainty gets added to the forecast.
Synoptic models suggest that weak shortwave ridging will occur
over the Mid-South as a trough begins to dig upstream of us. This
would imply a mostly dry forecast for Friday with increasing heat.
Beyond this period, the EURO is the preferred model of choice.
Multiple waves are expected to traverse through the area
Saturday afternoon through Sunday night with widespread showers
and thunderstorms. The GFS suggests more scattered activity, but
the EURO seems to be resolving the westerlies a bit better.
Went ahead and increased POPs to at least 50 through this period.

In the long term forecast, models are hinting at an Omega
blocking pattern setting up over the U.S. to begin next week.
This pattern would translate to increasing heat and humidity
across the area. Stay tuned.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF cycle

VFR conditions will continue through the evening hours. Scattered
thunderstorms have already develop across the southern half of the
Mid-South and will continue into the early evening hours. Some low
clouds will move into portions of north Mississippi early
Wednesday morning producing IFR ceilings. Winds will be mainly
from the south at around 5 knots during the forecast period
across much of north Mississippi. Elsewhere, winds will be from
the northwest at 5 to 10 knots for much of the forecast period.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1252 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020

ARZ049-058-231815-
Phillips AR-Lee AR-
1252 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 115 PM CDT
FOR...

Northwestern Phillips County in eastern Arkansas...
South central Lee County in eastern Arkansas...

At 1252 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing winds at least 40
mph was located over Marvell, moving east at 15 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in northwestern Phillips and south central Lee Counties should
monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3471 9073 3445 9069 3446 9100 3447 9101
      3447 9103 3461 9105 3464 9105
TIME...MOT...LOC 1752Z 263DEG 13KT 3456 9096

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