Severe Thunderstorm Warning 179, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
357 PM CDT Fri May 22 2020

.DISCUSSION...
A line of showers and thunderstorms that originated in the High
Plains yesterday evening is currently moving across the MO
Bootheel and northeast AR. These storms are moving into a bit
better environment with weaker CINh and MLCAPE of 2000 J/kg. The
shear is a bit weaker farther east with effective bulk wind
difference near 25-30 kts which may result in outflow eventually
outrunning the line of storms and causing the convection to
weaken. Some mid-level dry air is contributing to DCAPE in excess
of 1200 J/kg so we're watching the damaging wind potential
closely. This area of storms will move across the Mid-South
through early evening but we do anticipate generally quiet
conditions overnight once this activity passes. There is a low
chance that we could see additional storms move into the area late
tonight (but this activity hasn't event formed upstream yet).

The weekend will be highlighted by warm and humid conditions as
the mid-level ridge over FL builds poleward into the southern
Appalachians. Temperatures will warm into the low/mid 80s with
afternoon heat indices climbing into the lower 90s. Meanwhile, a
deep trough will be moving very slowly east across the western
CONUS, setting up meridional flow across the Mid-South. This
deep, southerly wind will maintain a fetch of Gulf moisture into
the area through the middle of next week as weak perturbations in
the flow aloft move across the area.

Coverage of showers and thunderstorms may be a bit limited this
weekend given the presence of the ridge, but is expected to
increase early next week as the trough approaches, evolving into a
cut-off low over the Southern Plains. Given the scattered nature
of this convection, PoPs were capped at 50% in most periods, but
were increased to 60% or greater Monday and Tuesday.

This pattern looks to continue through the week with coin-flip
PoPs during the work-week. Temperatures are expected to fall back
into the mid 80s for highs and near 70F for lows which is fairly
close to climatology.

MJ

&&

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFs/

Line of showers/thunderstorms not handled well by short term
guidance over North Central Arkansas may affect JBR over the next
few hours, and perhaps reaching MEM around 20-21Z, and MKL
perhaps around 22Z. Thereafter, confidence in convective activity
is lower for the remainder of the TAF period. MVFR ceilings may
also develop for a period Saturday morning at TUP. Otherwise, VFR
conditions expected outside of thunderstorms. Light winds will
increase to South winds to 8-11 kts on Saturday.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
340 AM CDT Fri May 22 2020

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-231045-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
340 AM CDT Fri May 22 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms through early
evening over east Arkansas and the Missouri bootheel. Damaging
winds and large hail will be the primary severe weather threats.

A few strong thunderstorms will be possible over west Tennessee
and north Mississippi through midevening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

PWB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
525 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ESE MIDTOWN MEMPHIS   35.13N  89.95W
05/22/2020                   SHELBY             TN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREE DOWN ACROSS HOLMES STREET, LANDED ON CAR.

&&

SGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
547 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSW TURRELL           35.35N  90.28W
05/22/2020                   CRITTENDEN         AR   SOCIAL MEDIA

            CAMPER FLIPPED OVER TURNED NEAR MILE MARKER 12 ON I55.

&&

SGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
553 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EARLE                   35.27N  90.47W
05/22/2020                   CRITTENDEN         AR   PUBLIC

            TIN ROOF PARTIALLY TORN OFF OF EARLE HIGH SCHOOL.

&&

SGW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
557 PM CDT Fri May 22 2020

TNZ053-090>092-222345-
Hardeman TN-Chester TN-McNairy TN-Hardin TN-
557 PM CDT Fri May 22 2020

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR...

Eastern Hardeman County in western Tennessee...
Southern Chester County in western Tennessee...
McNairy County in western Tennessee...
Hardin County in western Tennessee...

At 557 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing winds at least 40 mph
was located 7 miles north of Big Hill Pond State Park, moving east at
50 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in eastern Hardeman...southern Chester...McNairy and Hardin
Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3500 8885 3540 8890 3539 8820 3538 8820
      3539 8817 3538 8814 3538 8812 3539 8811
      3539 8803 3537 8803 3537 8801 3535 8800
      3533 8802 3530 8802 3529 8798 3501 8798
TIME...MOT...LOC 2257Z 270DEG 49KT 3516 8874

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
619 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0437 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ARLINGTON               35.28N  89.66W
05/22/2020                   SHELBY             TN   NWS EMPLOYEE

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN AROUND ARLINGTON, SOME HOMES WITH
            SHINGLES REMOVED. POWERLINES DOWN ACROSS AIRLINE RD.

&&

SGW

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