Severe Thunderstorm Warning 152, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
327 PM CDT Sun May 3 2020

.DISCUSSION...
A very impressive bow echo is moving rapidly eastward across the
Mid-South this afternoon. Widespread damaging winds and marginally
severe hail have been common with this system as it moves through
an unstable and sheared environment, highlighted by ~2000 J/kg of
MLCAPE and 40+ kts of EBWD. The 0-3km shear vectors are from due
west at 25-30 kts which is helping to sustain the northern end of
the bow, but the southern flank is lagging behind and may persist
a bit longer than previously anticipated. With that in mind, the
potential for a few strong storms may persist into the evening
hours but we should see a gradual decline in coverage/intensity as
the forcing associated with the shortwave trough moves east of the
area.

After some AM convection, there may be a bit of a lull in rain
chances for tomorrow. However, as we move into late afternoon and
evening, showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase once
again as a shortwave trough moves across the Central Plains. An
attendant surface low will move across the Ozarks into the OH
Valley, dragging a cold front through the Mid-South. This front
will serve as the impetus for convection Monday night into
Tuesday. There is a Slight Risk for northeast AR, northwest TN,
and the Bootheel with a Marginal Risk extending south from there.

Rain will end from northwest to southeast Tuesday evening as a
slightly cooler, drier air mass settles over the region. Expect a
few nice days across the Mid-South for Wednesday and Thursday in
the 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s. A reinforcing front will move
through the region late in the week, cooling temperatures off a
bit. We'll also see the effects of a potent shortwave trough
diving south across the Great Lakes. This will bring another
chance for showers and a few thunderstorms Thursday night through
Friday night. The weekend is looking pretty good at this time with
dry weather and below normal temperatures.

MJ

&&

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFs/

Active weather period for most of our TAF sites this forecast
cycle. Line of TSRA will move rapidly east near the AR/MO and
TN/KY borders, and may affect northern TAF sites with TSRA and
gusty OUTFLOW winds. Surface cold front will move through
overnight, continuing the threat for at least SHRA at all except
KTUP. Lower cigs also expected with frontal boundary, will take to
lower bound of MVFR for now. SSW surface winds, some gusty, will
swing to N/NE following front passage.

GW

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1144 AM CDT Sun May 3 2020

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-041100-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
1144 AM CDT Sun May 3 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Confidence is increasing that a cluster of strong to severe
storms will affect northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and
northwest Tennessee this afternoon. Damaging winds are the
primary hazard with large hail being a secondary concern. A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch is in effect from Harrisburg, to Brownsville,
to Decaturville through 6 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

A few strong to severe storms are possible along and north of the
Tennessee and Mississippi state line late Monday afternoon into
Monday evening. Best chances for severe storms will be across
Northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel and Northwest Tennessee.
Damaging winds and large hail are the main threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon. Please
relay any information about observed severe weather to the NWS
while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
317 PM CDT SUN MAY 03 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 ENE UNION CITY        36.45N  88.97W
05/03/2020                   OBION              TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
319 PM CDT SUN MAY 03 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0318 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PARIS                   36.30N  88.31W
05/03/2020                   HENRY              TN   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE ONTO A HOUSE ON BALLYWOOD

&&

SMW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
320 PM CDT SUN MAY 03 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0319 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HUNTINGDON              36.01N  88.41W
05/03/2020                   CARROLL            TN   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            SEVERAL TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN

&&

SMW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
321 PM CDT SUN MAY 03 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     TSTM WND GST     JACKSON                 35.63N  88.83W
05/03/2020  E60 MPH          MADISON            TN   SOCIAL MEDIA

            60 MPH WIND GUST

&&

SMW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
327 PM CDT SUN MAY 03 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0326 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BROWNSVILLE             35.59N  89.25W
05/03/2020                   HAYWOOD            TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LARGE TREE DOWN BY BROWNSVILLE PD

&&

SMW

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