River Flood Warning 78, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
336 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020

.DISCUSSION...
A few elevated supercells popped up overnight over a shallow,
cold air mass. Instability has been rather pedestrian at ~500 J/kg
of MUCAPE but effective layer shear near 50 kts was able to
support a few persistent, rotating updrafts in an area of lift
enhanced by frontogentic forcing in the 850-700mb layer.
Convection has been weakening over the past few hours and will
gradually shift south and east today as the subtle shortwave
trough to our north moves off to the east.

Rain chances will linger across portions of north MS through
midday, but generally dry weather is expected this afternoon and
evening. Temperatures this afternoon are forecast to warm into
the 60s across the Mid-South with lows tonight in the 50s. We may
see a few peeks of sun later today, but cloud cover will increase
again tonight with scattered to numerous showers, and perhaps a
few thunderstorms, developing after midnight.

A potent shortwave trough will approach the Mid MS Valley Tuesday
morning as an attendant upper tropospheric jet propagates into
the region. Large scale forcing for ascent will overspread the
area during the day as a warm front lifts north across the Mid-
South. Warm advection showers, and a few thunderstorms, are
expected early in the day, in association with this warm front. We
may see a break in the precipitation by early afternoon, but
additional convection is anticipated during the afternoon and
evening hours as the surface low and attendant cold front move
through the region. Storms are expected to fire initially along a
surface trough (or weak Pacific cold front) by mid-afternoon with
additional storms developing on the main cold front during the
evening hours.

Point soundings indicate some steepening of lapse rates between
800-600 mb, but both the GFS and NAM retain a warm nose around
700 mb. This may limit instability somewhat, but we're still
looking at up to 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE during the afternoon. Deep-
layer shear continues to look quite strong with 0-6km bulk wind
difference near 60+ kts. This will be sufficient to support
supercells should conditions properly congeal. Damaging winds,
large hail, and even a few tornadoes are possible. The severe
weather risk will shift into Middle TN by early evening. The main
uncertainty with this system is the exact timing. Should the
upper-level support arrive a bit earlier, the severe weather
potential could shift quickly to the east.

Quasi-zonal flow aloft is expected midweek in the wake of the
departing wave, but this will be short-lived as a strong trough
digs over the western CONUS. This will back winds aloft from the
southwest as the western cyclone closes off and moves eastward
into the Plains late Friday or Saturday. Dry weather is
anticipated ahead of this trough on both Wednesday and Thursday.
Southerly winds will resume with temperatures warming nicely.
Highs will be in the lower to middle 80s in many areas Thursday
and Friday. However, the approaching trough will bring rain
chances back to the Mid-South Thursday night into Friday,
increasing as we head into the weekend.

There still remains considerable differences between the 00z
deterministic global models regarding the timing and track of this
trough as it lifts into the OH Valley. The ECMWF remains faster
than both the GFS and CMC, lending low confidence to the timing of
the Friday/Saturday system. PoPs continue in the 40-60% range,
but the potential for severe weather with this wave remains
uncertain.

MJ

&&

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFs/

As an upper-level trough continues to push through the area, IFR
ceilings are expected to start off the TAF period. Light rain is
also forecast to last through the morning hours until the trough
exits the region. Ceilings will gradually lift into MVFR category
by the afternoon and last through the forecast period. Winds will
be light for the most part from the north-northeast.

KRF

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.

&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1220 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020

MSZ013>015-230600-
Lafayette MS-Pontotoc MS-Union MS-
1220 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 100 AM CDT
FOR...

Lafayette County in northwestern Mississippi...
Northern Pontotoc County in northeastern Mississippi...
Southern Union County in northeastern Mississippi...

At 1220 AM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger was located near Springdale, or near Holly Springs National
Forest, moving east at 65 mph.

Dangerous cloud to ground lightning is also possible with this
thunderstorm.

People in Lafayette...northern Pontotoc and southern Union Counties
should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3419 8972 3441 8972 3454 8882 3422 8883
      3418 8951
TIME...MOT...LOC 0520Z 260DEG 56KT 3428 8960

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1244 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020

MSZ011-012-230615-
Panola MS-Quitman MS-
1244 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 115 AM CDT
FOR...

Southern Panola County in northwestern Mississippi...
East central Quitman County in northwestern Mississippi...

At 1244 AM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger was located near Crowder, or 12 miles southwest of Batesville,
moving east at 60 mph.

Dangerous cloud to ground lightning is also possible with this
thunderstorm.

People in southern Panola and east central Quitman Counties should
monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3415 9017 3432 9019 3444 8973 3419 8972
      3416 9007 3416 9013 3415 9014
TIME...MOT...LOC 0544Z 252DEG 52KT 3422 9012

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
102 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020

MSZ006-009-014-016-017-230645-
Itawamba MS-Tishomingo MS-Union MS-Lee MS-Prentiss MS-
102 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 145 AM CDT
FOR...

Northern Itawamba County in northeastern Mississippi...
Southern Tishomingo County in northeastern Mississippi...
Eastern Union County in northeastern Mississippi...
Northern Lee County in northeastern Mississippi...
Prentiss County in northeastern Mississippi...

At 102 AM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger was located over New Harmony, or near New Albany, moving east
at 55 mph.

Dangerous cloud to ground lightning is also possible with this
thunderstorm.

People in northern Itawamba...southern Tishomingo...eastern Union...
northern Lee and Prentiss Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3443 8816 3433 8882 3436 8883 3436 8893
      3438 8893 3438 8901 3449 8905 3479 8811
TIME...MOT...LOC 0602Z 256DEG 47KT 3443 8893

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
103 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020

MSZ013>015-230645-
Lafayette MS-Pontotoc MS-Union MS-
103 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 145 AM CDT
FOR...

Lafayette County in northwestern Mississippi...
Northwestern Pontotoc County in northeastern Mississippi...
Western Union County in northeastern Mississippi...

At 103 AM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger was located near Batesville, moving east at 55 mph.

Dangerous cloud to ground lightning is also possible with this
thunderstorm.

People in Lafayette...northwestern Pontotoc and western Union
Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3423 8972 3445 8972 3453 8933 3450 8925
      3456 8925 3460 8907 3433 8901
TIME...MOT...LOC 0603Z 256DEG 47KT 3432 8982

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
206 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020

MSZ004-005-009-014-230730-
Tippah MS-Union MS-Alcorn MS-Prentiss MS-
206 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 230 AM CDT
FOR...

Southern Tippah County in northeastern Mississippi...
Union County in northeastern Mississippi...
Southeastern Alcorn County in northeastern Mississippi...
Prentiss County in northeastern Mississippi...

At 206 AM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger was located near New Albany, moving east at 65 mph.

Dangerous cloud to ground lightning is also possible with this
thunderstorm.

People in southern Tippah...Union...southeastern Alcorn and Prentiss
Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3451 8864 3451 8873 3450 8874 3450 8879
      3447 8879 3440 8911 3458 8918 3460 8914
      3460 8909 3462 8909 3495 8838 3476 8837
      3475 8835 3458 8833
TIME...MOT...LOC 0706Z 252DEG 55KT 3453 8906