River Flood Warning 40, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
538 PM CST Sat Feb 8 2020

.UPDATE...
See the 00z aviation discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 348 PM CST Sat Feb 8 2020/

DISCUSSION...

A pleasant day ongoing across the Mid-South at this hour. Latest
GOES visible imagery shows clear skies across the area.
Temperatures range from the lower 40s to lower 50s with light
westerly winds. Latest surface analysis places an area of high
pressure over the Mid-South with a lee side 1001mb low just east
of the Rockies.

A prolonged period of heavy rainfall is expected across much of
the Mid-South this coming week. Models continue to advertise the
first round arriving Monday and continuing through Tuesday morning
as a slow-moving cold front moves into the area. QPF values range
from 3 inches over northeast Mississippi to 1.5 inches further
north. This front is expected to stall over north Mississippi and
be a trigger for at least one more round of heavy rainfall
Wednesday into Thursday. The exact axis of heavy rainfall is still
in question for the second round, as models differ on location of
a low pressure moving across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Either
way, the first round will set the stage for a potential flood
scenario across north Mississippi. Held off on a Hydrologic
Statement for now, as confidence in where the next round of heavy
rainfall is not quite high enough.

Behind the exiting front, a 1036mb high pressure center will
build into the Mid-South Thursday afternoon and remain in place
through much of the weekend. This will lead to a period of drying
as well as moderating temperatures by next weekend.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
/00z TAFs/

Light winds and a few high clouds will prevail this evening with
southeast winds increasing to 7-10 kts by sunrise. Mid-level
clouds will increase, mainly after 08z, with bases falling to 4-6
kft by 12z. There is a window between 12-18z and 18z where we may
see MVFR ceilings develop but confidence remains low at this time.
Generally dry weather is anticipated much of the day Sunday,
although a few AM showers are possible in the JBR area. South
winds will become gusty by mid/late morning, continuing throughout
the afternoon. Rain chances will increase from west to east Sunday
evening, with ceilings/visibility deteriorating as rain moves in.

MJ

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
306 AM CST Sat Feb 8 2020

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-091115-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
306 AM CST Sat Feb 8 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Excessive rainfall will be possible Monday and Tuesday over
northeast Mississippi, mainly south of a Charleston to Tupelo
line. This rainfall may increase the risk of areal flooding and
river flooding in the early to middle part of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

PWB