Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Memphis, TN

Clay County, AR, Craighead County, AR, Crittenden County, AR, Cross County, AR, Greene County, AR, Lee County, AR, Mississippi County, AR, Phillips County, AR, Poinsett County, AR, St. Francis County, AR, Dunklin County, MO, Pemiscot County, MO, Coahoma County, MS, DeSoto County, MS, Panola County, MS, Quitman County, MS, Tallahatchie County, MS, Tate County, MS, Tunica County, MS, Carroll County, TN, Crockett County, TN, Dyer County, TN, Fayette County, TN, Gibson County, TN, Haywood County, TN, Henry County, TN, Lake County, TN, Lauderdale County, TN, Madison County, TN, Obion County, TN, Shelby County, TN, Tipton County, TN, Weakley County, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
343 AM CST Thu Nov 19 2020

.DISCUSSION...

High pressure has shifted east this morning and is now located
over the Appalachians. Southerly winds are already beginning to
pick up across the area. The winds will continue to increase as
the day goes on. Expect speeds ranging from 12-20 mph with higher
gusts. The winds should stay below Wind Advisory criteria.
However, the speeds will be high enough to cause critical fire
danger across much of the Mid-South as low relative humidity
values are expected again this afternoon. Will go ahead and issue
a Red Flag Warning for Eastern Arkansas, Northwest Mississippi,
the Missouri Bootheel, and much of West Tennessee. The southerly
winds will also bring warmer temperatures with highs expected to
be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Fire weather concerns will diminish by Friday as southerly winds
will bring an increase in moisture to the area. Several CAMS are
showing that light showers may develop Friday and Saturday near
the MO/AR and KY/TN borders as the next cold front sinks further
south than previously projected. The front will stall over
Southeast Missouri as a SFC low develops along the front. However,
the ECMWF and GFS continue to be dry. Have kept POPS out for now,
but POPS may need to be added in future forecasts if this trend
continues. May at least see more cloud cover, likely in the form
of stratus, during the overnight and morning hours late Thursday
Night into Friday morning and again Friday Night into Saturday.
Highs will remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s but could be a tad
cooler if showers do develop near the AR/MO and KY/TN borders.

Models are in pretty good agreement that an upper trof will dig
into the Central Plains Saturday Night and will begin pushing the
cold front south. As a result, the front will move into the Mid-South
earlier on Sunday so have increased POPS to likelys across much of
the CWA Sunday afternoon. The front will clear the area by Monday
morning. Much cooler temperatures will filter into the region
behind the front. Expect highs on Monday to be in the lower 50s to
the lower 60s.

Next week looks to be more active as a series of fronts will move
through the region. The first one will be by midweek as another
upper trof digs into the Central and Southern Plains on Tuesday.
As a result, another SFC low and associated cold front will move
into the Mid-South Tuesday Night into Wednesday. There may be
some instability to work with ahead of this front. Thus have added
slight chance of thunder in the forecast for now, but definitely
bears watching to see how the system develops. The Canadian
actually develops a cut off upper low within the trof which could
linger rain chances into Thanksgiving. The ECMWF and GFS does not
develop the upper level low. Thus, the models clear the front by
Wednesday evening. In addition, both models show high pressure
building into the area on Thanksgiving. Temperatures will be in
the 50s/60s for highs with lows in the 30s and 40s.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFs

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Light SSE winds
will veer S tonight and increase to 10-12 kts with occasional
gusts up to 20 kts on Thursday.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this
     evening for Clay-Craighead-Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lee AR-
     Mississippi-Phillips-Poinsett-St. Francis.

MO...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this
     evening for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this
     evening for Coahoma-DeSoto-Panola-Quitman-Tallahatchie-Tate-
     Tunica.

TN...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this
     evening for Carroll-Crockett-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Haywood-
     Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-Madison-Obion-Shelby-Tipton-Weakley.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
415 AM CST Thu Nov 19 2020

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-201200-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
415 AM CST Thu Nov 19 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Critical fire weather conditions will occur today across Eastern
Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, Northwest Mississippi, and much
of West Tennessee as southerly winds increase, relative humidity
values remain low, and dry/dormant vegetation exists. These
conditions will promote rapid fire growth. As a result, a Red
Flag Warning has been issued. Any fire that starts could quickly
spread out of control. There should be no burning today. Elevated
fire danger will occur across areas of West Tennessee near the
Tennessee River and Northeast Mississippi.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

KRM