Frost Advisory 4, NWS Memphis, TN

Clay County, AR, Greene County, AR, Mississippi County, AR, Alcorn County, MS, Benton County, MS, Itawamba County, MS, Marshall County, MS, Prentiss County, MS, Tippah County, MS, Tishomingo County, MS, Benton County, TN, Carroll County, TN, Chester County, TN, Crockett County, TN, Decatur County, TN, Dyer County, TN, Fayette County, TN, Gibson County, TN, Hardeman County, TN, Hardin County, TN, Haywood County, TN, Henderson County, TN, Henry County, TN, Lake County, TN, Lauderdale County, TN, Madison County, TN, McNairy County, TN, Obion County, TN, Tipton County, TN, Weakley County, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
316 PM CDT Thu May 7 2020

.DISCUSSION...

A beautiful spring day is occurring across the Mid-South.
Temperatures have risen into the mid 60s to lower 70s thus far
this afternoon underneath sunny skies. Clouds will begin
increasing across the area this evening as surface low pressure
system located over the Red River Valley begins to move east. A
few light showers may move through the area this evening, but the
heaviest precipitation will hold off until after midnight. Several
CAM models show a line of convection pushing into Eastern
Arkansas after 4 AM CDT. Embedded thunderstorms will occur along
the line with best chances occurring across East-Central Arkansas
and North Mississippi. The line will weaken as it pushes east
which may lead to the possibility of a wake low developing. In
addition, the pressure gradient will be very tight behind the
departing cold front which will cause winds to increase to 20-25
mph. Will go ahead and issue a Wind Advisory for the entire area.

Showers will taper off from west to east during the afternoon
hours on Friday. Temperatures will be well below normal thanks to
the cloud cover and rain. Expect highs in the lower to mid 60s.

Canadian high pressure will then quickly build into the Mid-South
by Friday Night and will remain over the area for much of the
weekend. Temperatures will remain well below normal for this time
of year. In fact, would not be surprised to see some record low
temperatures set Saturday morning. Frost will also develop at
least across much of West Tennessee and portions of Northeast
Mississippi Saturday morning as lows dip down into the mid 30s. A
Frost Advisory will likely be needed.

After another chilly night Saturday Night, the high will begin to shift
east on Sunday. Another cold front will then move through the
Mid-South Sunday Night. There will not be a lot of moisture for
the front to work with, thus expecting the front to come through
the area dry.

High pressure will briefly build back into the region on Monday,
but will be short-lived as a warm front begins lifting north
Monday Night through Tuesday Night. Models show showers and
possibly some embedded thunderstorms occurring ahead of the front.
The front will lift north by Wednesday. Models begin to diverge on
when the front will begin to move back southward as a cold front.
For now have small chances for showers and thunderstorms
occurring mainly for areas along and north of Interstate 40
through the end of the forecast period.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFs

VFR conditions will continue through this evening with some high
clouds. A cold front will approach the area overnight preceded by
rain showers. Cigs will lower to MVFR or IFR levels as the steady
rain arrives. Winds veering overnight and will increase to 10-15kt
and then gusty winds. The winds will continue on Friday with
showers throughout the day. Wind shear will likely be an issue for
a couple hours early on Friday. TLSJr

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for Clay-Craighead-
     Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lee AR-Mississippi-Phillips-
     Poinsett-St. Francis.

MO...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for Alcorn-Benton MS-
     Calhoun-Chickasaw-Coahoma-DeSoto-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS-
     Marshall-Monroe-Panola-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
     Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Yalobusha.

TN...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for Benton TN-Carroll-
     Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Hardeman-
     Hardin-Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-Madison-
     McNairy-Obion-Shelby-Tipton-Weakley.

&&

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