Flash Flood Warning 33, NWS Memphis, TN

701 
WGUS74 KMEG 102028
FFSMEG

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
328 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020

MSC071-107-161-102038-
/O.CAN.KMEG.FF.W.0033.000000T0000Z-201010T2115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Lafayette MS-Panola MS-Yalobusha MS-
328 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR WESTERN LAFAYETTE, EASTERN 
PANOLA AND NORTHERN YALOBUSHA COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3451 8995 3451 8972 3451 8960 3401 8957
      3400 8991

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1230 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020

.UPDATE...
Aviation Update Below

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 555 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020/

DISCUSSION... /issued 513 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020/

Surface observations showed Tropical Storm Delta centered near
Vicksburg, MS at 5 AM, with 40 to 50 mph winds extending as far
out as 50 miles from the low pressure center.

Delta is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression by midday,
followed by a track to northeast MS by the early overnight tonight.

Delta's flooding rain and strong wind potential will remain
greatest over the Mississippi River delta this morning. Those
threats will decrease further north and east, reflective of
expected further weakening of Delta's remnant low. However,
convective bands in advance of this remnant low will present a
risk of stronger winds just of off the surface mixing to the
ground over north central MS, perhaps as far north as the Memphis
area. The wind advisory has been extended east to include Tupelo,
given the possibility of transient strong wind gusts near the
convective bands.

The tornado potential remains over north central and northeast
MS, but has been trimmed back temporally to extend into early
afternoon. Beyond this period, the low level instability axis and
forced convective banding will have shifted into AL.

Delta's will lift to middle TN and transition to post-tropical
status by midday Sunday. The Midsouth can then look forward to a
return to seasonal autumn weather. Shortwave ridging and strengthening
low level return flow will bring warm temps on Monday, preceding
a Pacific cold frontal passage Monday afternoon. This front will
only bring a modest cooldown, but will lower humidity levels
noticeably Monday evening and the days following. A few post
frontal sprinkles cannot be ruled out over west TN Monday evening.

West-northwest flow aloft will prevail during the mid to late week
periods. GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models showed good consensus in
depicting midlevel height falls over the plains and MS River
valley late next week. An associated strong cold front through
the Midsouth Thursday afternoon, bringing cooler temps for Friday
and next weekend.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF

Various conditions from MVFR to LIFR are possible at all TAF sites
as now tropical depression Delta continues to fly across the
area. Winds ENE 13-20kts with gusts 25-30kts. The gusty winds
should die down overnight with winds dropping to 4-8kts and ending
up more NNW by end of TAF cycle. Conditions should also start
improving towards the end of the TAF cycle.

SMW

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for Lee AR-Phillips.

     Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for Crittenden-Lee
     AR-Phillips-St. Francis.

MO...None.
MS...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for Coahoma-DeSoto-
     Marshall-Panola-Quitman-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tunica.

     Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for Calhoun-
     Chickasaw-Coahoma-DeSoto-Lafayette-Lee MS-Marshall-Monroe-
     Panola-Pontotoc-Quitman-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tunica-Union-
     Yalobusha.

     Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for Alcorn-Benton MS-
     Calhoun-Chickasaw-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS-Monroe-Pontotoc-
     Prentiss-Tippah-Tishomingo-Union-Yalobusha.

TN...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for Fayette-Shelby.

     Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for Shelby.

     Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for Chester-Decatur-
     Hardeman-Hardin-Henderson-Madison-McNairy.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
637 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-111345-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
637 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Flash flooding and strong winds will be possilbe today,
particularly over the Mississippi River delta of east central
Arkansas and northwest Mississippi.

A few weak short-lived tornadoes will be possible over north
central and northeast Mississippi, from midmorning through early
afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through this afternoon.

PWB