Flash Flood Warning 18, NWS Memphis, TN

905 
WGUS74 KMEG 280252
FFSMEG

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
952 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020

ARC037-077-123-280302-
/O.EXP.KMEG.FF.W.0018.000000T0000Z-200828T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cross AR-Lee AR-St. Francis AR-
952 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR 
WESTERN CROSS, LEE AND ST. FRANCIS COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT Friday for 
portions of East Arkansas and North Mississippi.

LAT...LON 3487 9110 3487 9112 3491 9112 3491 9115
      3500 9115 3500 9105 3544 9104 3544 9090
      3515 9064 3464 9062 3465 9105 3473 9105
      3474 9110

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
650 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020

.UPDATE...
See the 00z aviation discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 212 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020/

DISCUSSION...

The first band from tropical system Laura is now moving into
Southern portions of the Midsouth. Laura is expected to continue
to weaken as it tracks across East Arkansas tonight and into
Southeast Missouri around sunrise. It should lose most of its
tropical characteristics overnight but will still pose the threat
of flooding as well as short lived tornadoes. Winds overnight are
expected to be sustained between 20 and 30 mph with gusts 35-40
mph possible. Sustained strong winds along with saturated soil
from heavy rain may create conditions that allow trees to fall even
with below severe thunderstorm wind criteria. Additionally,the
East side of weakening tropical systems are notorious for
producing short lived tornadoes. A Tornado watch is in place for
portions of East Arkansas and Northwest Mississippi. Additional
watches are likely tonight and tomorrow. The Storm Prediction
center has much of North Mississippi in a slight risk for severe
thunderstorms tonight and much of the Midsouth tomorrow.

Shortly after sunrise Laura will turn to the East and begin to
track along the Kentucky, Tennessee state line. Even though Laura
is expected to continue to weaken, due to the proximity of its
surface low, winds could remain an issue through the day,
especially across Northern portions of the Midsouth. Wind
advisories remain in effect for much of the Midsouth through
tomorrow afternoon. Additionally locally heavy rain is possible.
The heaviest rain is expected to fall across East Arkansas, the
Missouri Bootheel and along the Tennessee/Kentucky state line. 2-4
inches is expected with isolated amounts up to 6 inches possible.
WPC has outlined much of the Midsouth for a slight or Marginal
risk of excessive rainfall. Flash flood watch remains in effect
through tomorrow evening.

Over the weekend into next week, we look to remain in a wet
pattern. Saturday a cold front is expected to approach to
Midsouth, likely stalling and lingering into early next week. Weak
Northwest flow will transition to zonal flow into early next week.
Several impulses transitioning through the mean flow will likely
result in multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. High
temperatures should remain in the 80s over the weekend well into
next week.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/00z TAFs/

Tropical Storm Laura continues to move north across AR and the
initial rainband is affecting portions of eastern AR and northwest
MS, approaching MEM. Gusty winds and spin-up tornadoes are
possible within these bands in addition to tempo IFR CIGS and
visibility. Ceilings are expected to deteriorate overnight and
continue between 1-3 kft through tomorrow afternoon. There will
likely be some breaks in the cloud deck, but confidence in
when/where this will occur is low.

Winds will continue to increase this evening, with gusts over 30
kts at JBR and MEM tonight and early Friday. East and southeast
winds will veer around the dial, eventually becoming southwest as
the remnant circulation moves across the northern portion of the
CWA. Wind shear will also be an issue through the period as winds
at 2000 ft are in the 40-50 kt range.

MJ

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flash Flood Watch through Friday evening for Clay-Craighead-
     Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lee AR-Phillips-Poinsett-St.
     Francis.

     Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT Friday for Lee AR-Phillips-St.
     Francis.

     Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 PM CDT Friday for Clay-
     Craighead-Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Mississippi-Poinsett.

     Flash Flood Watch through late Friday night for Mississippi.

MO...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 PM CDT Friday for
     Dunklin-Pemiscot.

     Flash Flood Watch through late Friday night for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...Flash Flood Watch through Friday evening for Coahoma-Quitman-
     Tallahatchie-Tunica.

     Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT Friday for Coahoma-Panola-Quitman-
     Tallahatchie-Tate-Tunica.

     Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 PM CDT Friday for
     DeSoto-Marshall.

     Flash Flood Watch through late Friday night for Alcorn-Benton MS-
     DeSoto-Lafayette-Marshall-Panola-Prentiss-Tate-Tippah-
     Tishomingo-Union.

TN...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 PM CDT Friday for Dyer-
     Lake-Lauderdale-Obion-Shelby-Tipton.

     Flash Flood Watch through late Friday night for Benton TN-
     Carroll-Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-
     Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-
     Madison-McNairy-Obion-Shelby-Tipton-Weakley.

     Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for Carroll-Chester-
     Crockett-Fayette-Gibson-Hardeman-Haywood-Henderson-Henry-
     Madison-Weakley.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
233 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-282145-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
233 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms over the delta of
east Arkansas and northwest Mississippi, through sunrise Friday.
There is a Marginal Risk to the east and northeast of this area.

The potential for short-lived tornadoes will increase over east
central Arkansas this evening. The tornado potential will expand
north and and slightly east during the overnight hours.

In addition to the tornado risk, strong winds and flash flooding
are expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

There is Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms for all the Midsouth
on Friday. Short-lived tornadoes will be possible, accompanied by
flash flooding and damaging winds. The tornado threat will expand
from Memphis metro area Friday morning, through west Tennessee
and north Mississippi during the afternoon.

Additionally straight line winds are expected to be sustained
between 20 and 30 mph with gusts over 35mph. Trees may be more
vulnerable to falling because of saturated soils.

Strong winds and flash flooding are also possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed through Friday evening. Please
pass storm reports to local law enforcement, SKYWARN communication
channels or directly to the National Weather Service via the NWS
Memphis webpage or via social media.