Winter Storm Warning 3, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

464 
WWUS44 KMAF 261309
WSWMAF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
809 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020

...FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG THIS MORNING AND A MAJOR WINTER STORM
TO IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...

NMZ027-029-033-TXZ045>048-050>053-270-271-270115-
/O.NEW.KMAF.WW.Y.0008.201026T1309Z-201026T1700Z/
/O.CON.KMAF.WS.W.0003.201027T0000Z-201028T1200Z/
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea County-
Central Lea County-Gaines-Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-
Howard-Mitchell-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Including the cities of Queen, Tatum, Hobbs, Lovington, Seminole,
Lamesa, Andrews, Stanton, Big Spring, Colorado City, 
and Pine Springs
809 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020 /709 AM MDT Mon Oct 26 2020/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/
TODAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM CDT /6 PM
MDT/ THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...For the Winter Weather Advisory this morning, freezing
  drizzle and freezing fog. Ice accumulations of a light glaze. 
  For the Winter Storm Warning, heavy mixed precipitation 
  expected. Total snow accumulations of up to 8 inches and ice 
  accumulations of around one half of an inch. 

* WHERE...Portions of southeast New Mexico and southwest and 
  western Texas.

* WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, until noon CDT /11 AM 
  MDT/ today.For the Winter Storm Warning, from 7 PM CDT /6 PM 
  MDT/ this evening to 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ Wednesday. 

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are possible due to the
  ice. Travel could be impacted this morning and become even worse
  overnight.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Some roads could become slick, especially
  secondary roads and on overpasses.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

Slow down and use caution while traveling. Prepare for possible
power outages. 

In New Mexico, the latest road conditions can be obtained by
calling 800-432-4269. In Texas, the latest road conditions can be
obtained by calling 800-452-9292.

&&

$$

NMZ028-034-TXZ061>063-270115-
/O.CON.KMAF.WS.W.0003.201027T0000Z-201028T1200Z/
Eddy County Plains-Southern Lea County-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-
Including the cities of Artesia, Carlsbad, Eunice, Jal, Odessa, 
and Midland
809 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020 /709 AM MDT Mon Oct 26 2020/

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM CDT /6 PM
MDT/ THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow 
  accumulations of up to 6 inches and ice accumulations of 
  around three tenths of an inch.

* WHERE...In New Mexico, Eddy County Plains, and Southern Lea 
  County. In Texas, Midland, Glasscock and Ector Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening to 7 AM CDT /6 AM 
  MDT/ Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the
  ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions
  could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A Winter Storm Warning means significant
  amounts of snow, sleet and ice are expected. Strong winds are 
  also possible in the Guadalupe Mountains. This will make travel 
  very hazardous.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

In New Mexico, the latest road conditions can be obtained by
calling 800-432-4269. In Texas, the latest road conditions can be
obtained by calling 800-452-9292.

&&

$$

TXZ059-060-067>070-075-272>274-277-278-270115-
/O.CON.KMAF.WW.Y.0007.201027T0000Z-201028T1200Z/
Loving-Winkler-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
Including the cities of Mentone, Kermit, Monahans, Crane, 
McCamey, Rankin, Big Lake, Fort Stockton, Van Horn, Pecos, 
Fort Davis, and Alpine
809 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of up to one inch and ice accumulations of around one tenth of 
  an inch. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of southwest and western Texas.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A Winter Storm Warning means significant
  amounts of snow, sleet and ice are expected. Strong winds are 
  also possible in the Guadalupe Mountains. This will make travel 
  very hazardous.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

The latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 800-452-
9292.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/midland

206 
WWUS44 KMAF 261946
WSWMAF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
246 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020

...A MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY 
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

TXZ047-048-052-053-271445-
/O.UPG.KMAF.WS.W.0003.201027T0000Z-201028T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KMAF.IS.W.0001.201027T0000Z-201028T1200Z/
Borden-Scurry-Howard-Mitchell-
Including the cities of Big Spring and Colorado City
246 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020

...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Significant icing expected. Total ice accumulations of 
  three tenths to four tenths of an inch.

* WHERE...Borden, Scurry, Howard and Mitchell Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the 
  ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Roads, bridges and overpasses in the
  warning area will become slick and hazardous. Accumulation of
  ice on roadways, bridges and overpasses will make travel
  treacherous. Reduce driving speeds, leave plenty of room between
  you and other vehicles and allow extra time to reach your
  destination. Avoid sudden braking or acceleration and be
  especially cautious on hills or when making turns.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Travel is strongly discouraged. If you must travel, keep an extra
flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an
emergency. Prepare for possible power outages. 

The latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 800-452-
9292.

&&

$$

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045-046-050-051-061>063-270-271-271445-
/O.CON.KMAF.WS.W.0003.201027T0000Z-201028T1200Z/
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Andrews-Martin-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Including the cities of Queen, Artesia, Carlsbad, Tatum, Hobbs, 
Lovington, Eunice, Jal, Seminole, Lamesa, Andrews, Stanton, 
Odessa, Midland, and Pine Springs
246 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020 /146 PM MDT Mon Oct 26 2020/

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM CDT /6 PM
MDT/ THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow
  accumulations of up to 7 inches across southeast New Mexico and
  lesser amounts across the Permian Basin. Ice accumulations of
  around a quarter of an inch.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast New Mexico and southwest and 
  western Texas.

* WHEN...From 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening to 7 AM CDT /6 AM 
  MDT/ Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are possible due to the
  ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Expect very icy and snow packed roads,
  sidewalks, and other exposed surfaces. Dangerous travel
  conditions are also expected across the area. Some roads could
  become impassable.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

In New Mexico, the latest road conditions can be obtained by
calling 800-432-4269. In Texas, the latest road conditions can be
obtained by calling 800-452-9292.

&&

$$

TXZ059-060-067>070-075-272>274-277-278-271445-
/O.CON.KMAF.WW.Y.0007.201027T0000Z-201028T1200Z/
Loving-Winkler-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
Including the cities of Mentone, Kermit, Monahans, Crane, 
McCamey, Rankin, Big Lake, Fort Stockton, Van Horn, Pecos, 
Fort Davis, and Alpine
246 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of
  up to two inches and ice accumulations of up to two tenths of an
  inch. 

* WHERE...Portions of southwest and western Texas.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Some roads could become slick, especially
  secondary roads and on overpasses. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

The latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 800-452-
9292.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/midland

988 
WWUS44 KMAF 270821
WSWMAF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
321 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020

...A MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

TXZ047-048-052-053-272030-
/O.CON.KMAF.IS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-201028T1200Z/
Borden-Scurry-Howard-Mitchell-
Including the cities of Big Spring and Colorado City
321 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020

...ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Significant icing expected. Total ice accumulations of a
  quarter to a half an inch.

* WHERE...Borden, Scurry, Howard and Mitchell Counties.

* WHEN...Today and tonight. Until 7 AM CDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the 
  ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Roads, bridges and overpasses in the 
  warning area will become slick and hazardous. Accumulation of 
  ice on roadways, bridges and overpasses will make travel 
  treacherous. Reduce driving speeds, leave plenty of room 
  between you and other vehicles and allow extra time to reach 
  your destination. Avoid sudden braking or acceleration and be 
  especially cautious on hills or when making turns.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Travel is strongly discouraged. If you must travel, keep an extra
flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an
emergency. Prepare for possible power outages.

The latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 800-452-
9292.

&&

$$

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045-046-050-051-061>063-270-271-272030-
/O.CON.KMAF.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-201028T1200Z/
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Andrews-Martin-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Including the cities of Queen, Artesia, Carlsbad, Tatum, Hobbs, 
Lovington, Eunice, Jal, Seminole, Lamesa, Andrews, Stanton, 
Odessa, Midland, and Pine Springs
321 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020 /221 AM MDT Tue Oct 27 2020/

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT /6 AM
MDT/ WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow
  accumulations of up to 7 inches across southeast New Mexico and
  the Guadalupe Mountains with lesser amounts across the Permian
  Basin of west Texas. Ice accumulations up to a quarter of an 
  inch.

* WHERE...Southeast New Mexico Plains, Guadalupe and Delaware
  Mountains and the northern and central Permian Basin of west 
  Texas.

* WHEN...Today and tonight through 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are possible due to 
  the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Expect very icy and snow packed roads, 
  sidewalks, and other exposed surfaces. Dangerous travel 
  conditions are also expected across the area. Some roads could 
  become impassable.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

In New Mexico, the latest road conditions can be obtained by
calling 800-432-4269. In Texas, the latest road conditions can be
obtained by calling 800-452-9292.

&&

$$

TXZ059-060-067>070-075-272>274-277-278-272030-
/O.CON.KMAF.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-201028T1200Z/
Loving-Winkler-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
Including the cities of Mentone, Kermit, Monahans, Crane, 
McCamey, Rankin, Big Lake, Fort Stockton, Van Horn, Pecos, 
Fort Davis, and Alpine
321 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of up to two inches and ice accumulations of up to two tenths 
  of an inch.

* WHERE...Southern Permian Basin, Trans Pecos and Davis Mountains. 
 
* WHEN...Today and tonight through 7 AM CDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Some roads could become slick, especially 
  secondary roads and on overpasses.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

The latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 800-452-
9292.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/midland

428 
WWUS44 KMAF 271930
WSWMAF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
230 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020

...A MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA OVERNIGHT...

TXZ047-048-052-053-281200-
/O.CON.KMAF.IS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-201028T1200Z/
Borden-Scurry-Howard-Mitchell-
Including the cities of Big Spring and Colorado City
230 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020

...ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Significant icing. Additional snow accumulations of up 
  to 4 inches and ice accumulations of one tenth to three tenths 
  of an inch.

* WHERE...Borden, Scurry, Mitchell and Howard Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM CDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the 
  ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Travel is strongly discouraged. If you must travel, keep an extra
flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an
emergency. Prepare for possible power outages. 

The latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 800-452-
9292.

&&

$$

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045-046-050-051-061>063-270-271-281200-
/O.CON.KMAF.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-201028T1200Z/
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Andrews-Martin-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Including the cities of Queen, Artesia, Carlsbad, Tatum, Hobbs, 
Lovington, Eunice, Jal, Seminole, Lamesa, Andrews, Stanton, 
Odessa, Midland, and Pine Springs
230 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020 /130 PM MDT Tue Oct 27 2020/

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT /6 AM
MDT/ WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation. Additional snow 
  accumulations of 2 to 4 inches and ice accumulations of around 
  two tenths of an inch.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast New Mexico and southwest and 
  western Texas.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

In New Mexico, the latest road conditions can be obtained by
calling 800-432-4269. In Texas, the latest road conditions can be
obtained by calling 800-452-9292.

&&

$$

TXZ059-060-067>070-075-272>274-277-278-281200-
/O.CON.KMAF.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-201028T1200Z/
Loving-Winkler-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
Including the cities of Mentone, Kermit, Monahans, Crane, 
McCamey, Rankin, Big Lake, Fort Stockton, Van Horn, Pecos, 
Fort Davis, and Alpine
230 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Additional snow accumulations of 
  up to two inches and ice accumulations of around one tenth of 
  an inch. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of southwest and western Texas.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM CDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

The latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 800-452-
9292.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/midland

040 
WWUS44 KMAF 280845
WSWMAF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
345 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

...WINTER STORM IS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...

.The upper level low pressure area that was responsible for
the wintry weather this weekend had moved away from the region 
early this morning. Additional significant precipitation is no 
longer expected.

TXZ047-048-052-053-280945-
/O.CAN.KMAF.IS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-201028T1200Z/
Borden-Scurry-Howard-Mitchell-
345 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

...ICE STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The storm system responsible for the freezing rain had moved out
of the region early this morning. Significant additional
precipitation is not expected. Some roads, especially secondary
roads and bridges may remain icy this morning before temperatures
rise above freezing. 

$$

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045-046-050-051-061>063-270-271-280945-
/O.CAN.KMAF.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-201028T1200Z/
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Andrews-Martin-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
345 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020 /245 AM MDT Wed Oct 28 2020/

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The storm system responsible for the snow, sleet and freezing 
rain had moved out of the region early this morning. Significant 
additional precipitation is not expected. Some roads, especially 
secondary roads and bridges may remain icy this morning before 
temperatures rise above freezing.

$$

TXZ059-060-067>070-075-272>274-277-278-280945-
/O.CAN.KMAF.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-201028T1200Z/
Loving-Winkler-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
345 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The storm system responsible for the light snow, freezing rain 
and sleet had moved out of the region early this morning. 
Significant additional precipitation is not expected. Some roads,
especially secondary roads and bridges may remain icy this 
morning before temperatures rise above freezing.

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/midland

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1224 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020

.DISCUSSION...

See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR CIGS are expected at KMAF and KHOB the next 24 hours with
MVFR CIGS elsewhere. For now will keep precipitation out of the
terminals as confidence is not high enough to mention at this
time. Will amend as necessary.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 449 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020/

DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

Area radars/mesoanalysis and a peek out the window shows fropa
just occurred at KMAF, bringing pleasant MVFR BLDU in its wake.
Upstream obs suggest cigs will crater rapidly over the next 12
hours or so, w/forecast soundings taking KMAF/KHOB to LIFR by
sunrise, and IFR most other terminals. Due to the strength of the
front, conditions should not improve much through the end of the
forecast period, at least not for the NE terminals. Precip chances
w/the incoming trough are not high enough for a mention attm.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 407 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020/

DISCUSSION...

.WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A strong upper-level storm system combined with an arctic air mass
near the sfc will set the stage for a wintry mix across our region
beginning Monday night and lasting through mid-week. Now is the time
to make preparations because travel may be greatly impacted,
especially for areas that receive any amount of accumulating ice.

As of 400 PM CDT, a cold front is already through the NE Permian
Basin and now approaching MAF. Temperatures are falling into the
50s and 60s directly north of the boundary with 80s and 90s to
the south. The arctic air is still sitting N of Amarillo and will
make a push towards West TX and SE NM late tomorrow. Temperatures
will continue to fall behind the front through the rest of tonight
as CAA occurs and low clouds move in. Not much rise in the
mercury is expected during the day tomorrow, if at all, except
across the Big Bend region as the shallow cold air damns up
against the higher terrain.

Meanwhile, an upper level trof which is now beginning to dig over
the Western CONUS is projected to deepen into a cutoff low over
AZ/NM throughout the day tomorrow. This low will move INVOF the
TX/NM state line around 12Z Wednesday. As it does so, deep lift
ahead of this feature will overspread the shallow cold airmass at
the sfc. Light Precipitation should begin late tonight as upglide
behind the frontal boundary commences. Precipitation will be rain
or drizzle as temperatures remain above freezing tonight and
tomorrow. However, by tomorrow night into Tuesday morning, a
reinforcing shot of cold arctic air will arrive and that is when
our winter precipitation begins. We have gone ahead and issued a
Winter Storm Watch for most of West Texas and southeast New Mexico
beginning tomorrow night and lasting through Wednesday morning
and a High Wind Watch for Guadalupe Pass. During this time period,
we will most likely see rain transition to freezing rain from N
to S with accumulating ice possible along and N of I-10. A hard
freeze is expected as far south as HWY 90 in N Brewster County by
Tuesday morning. Thus, a Freeze Watch has also been issued for
most of the region except for the Big Bend area.

Latest model runs indicated a decent swath of accumulating ice
will be possible mainly along and N of I-20 from MAF to SNK by
early Tuesday morning. This could make travel difficult or near
impossible, especially if temperatures do not rise above freezing
during the day Tuesday. As the upper low moves over the region
Tuesday night into Wednesday, another round of wintry precipitation
is possible. Forecast soundings now indicate a transition to snow
across the W Permian Basin into portions of southeast NM early
Wednesday. If and when this occurs, there could be a few inches of
accumulating snow across these areas before everything comes to a
close Wednesday afternoon.

After Wednesday, temperatures will rebound to near normal by this
weekend with dry weather returning and it looks like we will not
have to deal with winter weather again for a while.

-Salerno

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     41  30  35  32 /  50  80  80  80
Carlsbad                       42  26  32  28 /  20  60  70  60
Dryden                         62  37  47  35 /  20  50  40  30
Fort Stockton                  48  27  34  30 /  20  60  60  50
Guadalupe Pass                 43  18  29  24 /  20  50  60  40
Hobbs                          35  23  30  26 /  30  80  70  70
Marfa                          57  27  38  23 /   0  20  30  30
Midland Intl Airport           41  28  32  29 /  30  80  70  80
Odessa                         42  27  33  28 /  30  80  70  80
Wink                           44  29  35  27 /  20  70  70  70

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for
     Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     Winter Storm Watch from Monday evening through late Tuesday
     night for Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea
     County.

TX...Freeze Watch from this evening through Tuesday morning for
     Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-
     Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-
     Eastern Culberson County-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe
     Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
     Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-
     Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Upton-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Wednesday morning
     for Andrews-Borden-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains
     Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson County-Ector-Gaines-
     Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and
     Delaware Mountains-Howard-Loving-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-
     Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Upton-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for
     Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

&&

99/99/12

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
312 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-262015-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
312 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020 /212 PM MDT Sun Oct 25 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Unseasonably warm, dry and breezy conditions will result in near
critical fire weather conditions this afternoon across the mountains
and adjacent plains.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

A strong cold front Sunday night will usher in record cold
temperatures early this week. A widespread freeze is likely Tuesday
morning. A Freeze Watch has been issued for much of the forecast area
beginning Monday night.

A wintry mix of precipitation is likely across portions of West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico late Sunday night through Wednesday
morning that could produce significant ice accumulations with impacts
to trees, power lines, and roads, especially across the Permian
Basin of West Texas. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for Monday
night through Wednesday morning as a result.

High Winds will be possible across the Guadalupe Pass behind the cold
front Monday night into early Tuesday morning. A High Wind Watch has
been issued to cover for the threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated currently. However, activation
likely Monday night through Wednesday morning.

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS while following all local, state and CDC guidelines.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland