Wind Advisory 5, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

354 
WWUS74 KMAF 290018
NPWMAF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
618 PM CST Tue Jan 28 2020

NMZ029-033-034-TXZ045-050-059>062-067>069-075-082-274-277-278-
290130-
/O.EXP.KMAF.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-200129T0000Z/
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Andrews-Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Ward-Crane-Upton-Pecos-
Terrell-Reeves County Plains-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-
Including the cities of Tatum, Hobbs, Lovington, Eunice, Jal, 
Seminole, Andrews, Mentone, Kermit, Odessa, Midland, Monahans, 
Crane, McCamey, Rankin, Fort Stockton, Dryden, Sanderson, Pecos, 
Fort Davis, and Alpine
618 PM CST Tue Jan 28 2020 /518 PM MST Tue Jan 28 2020/

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

Winds have started to decrease across the area, and will continue
to decrease through this evening.

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/maf

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1043 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2020

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Showers moving out of the area so have taken them out of the TAFs.
Windy conditions will be possible overnight with the upper trough
passing and will increase tomorrow out of the NW as a front moves
through.  VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1016 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2020/

UPDATE...

Updated forecast to allow the High Wind Warning and Wind
Advisories to expire.

DISCUSSION...

Winds have dropped below wind warning and wind advisory criteria
and are expected to remain below criteria so have allowed the
High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory to expire.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 257 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2020/

DISCUSSION...
An upper level trough is bringing strong winds to the Guadalupe
Mountains this afternoon that will continue for a few more hours
before diminishing. This trough could also bring a few high based
showers to southeastern New Mexico before moving east overnight. A
cold front moves through the region tonight bringing windy
conditions that will border on advisory level Tuesday for the
Permian Basin. Surface high pressure settling in behind the front
will bring cooler though still seasonal temperatures Tuesday and
Wednesday.

A second upper trough then digs into the southern Rockies
Wednesday night bringing a chance for wintry precipitation. Models
diverge on the path and strength of this system which will be
critical in determining precipitation type/amount/quantity. The
GFS and NAM have a more northerly track with higher QPF amounts
while the other models are taking most of the lift farther south
with lower QPF and a mostly rain precip type. A strengthening
jet on the southern periphery of the trough may prevent it from
sagging too far south and the GFS/NAM may be more realistic
favoring highest precip chances from the Guadalupe Mountains and
southeast New Mexico east across the northern Permian Basin. A
more southerly solution would favor precip along and south of
I-10. Did not commit to precip type at present but rain changing
to snow would be expected on precip north of I-20 with
accumulations possible from the Guadalupe Mountains to Andrews and
Seminole. Lowered highs several degrees Thursday due to cloud
cover and precip but cannot yet put too much detail into this as
precip, and especially snow accumulation, will have a big impact
on this. Precipitation ends Thursday night with clearing skies
and warming temperatures into the weekend and early next week.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     44  54  30  56 /  10  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       40  57  28  59 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         46  63  35  63 /  30   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  44  57  34  61 /  20   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 34  47  33  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          38  54  28  56 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          33  54  25  59 /  20   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           43  57  31  58 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                         43  57  32  58 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                           42  59  29  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1018 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2020

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-290430-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
1018 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2020 /918 PM MST Mon Jan 27 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

There is a chance for accumulating snows Thursday from southeastern
New Mexico to the northwestern Permian Basin. Slick road conditions
will be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland