Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
611 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
Scattered storms are developing across the region and could affect
any or all terminals before the evening is done. Lowered
visibility due to heavy rain and gusty winds are possible in and
near these storms. Storms may continue well into the overnight
hours, especially across the Permian Basin.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 231 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020/

DISCUSSION...
An upper level ridge of high pressure centered across the desert
southwest United States will remain a persistent weather feature
through much of the week for west Texas and southeast New Mexico.
Mainly much above normal temperatures can be expected in this
regime. The best significant chance of thunderstorms will be
later tonight across the northern Permian Basin of west Texas. An
upper level shear axis/trough across southwest Kansas will rotate
southeast overnight around the periphery of the ridge igniting a
thunderstorm complex in the Texas Panhandle. The northwesterly
steering flow aloft will favor the extreme north/northeast
Permian Basin with the highest precipitation chances/totals as
the complex moves southeast. Further south across the central and
southern Permian Basin, outflow from the complex could spark more
isolated storms. Elsewhere moist upslope flow and residual low
and mid level moisture is expected to produce scattered
thunderstorms in the mountains but this activity should die this
evening with loss of heating.

For Monday thunderstorm chances will continue across the northern
Permian Basin closest to the track of the departing upper system.
Moist upslope flow and residual low and mid level moisture should
also produce scattered thunderstorms in the mountains. The
precipitation should diminish Monday evening with loss of heating
as the system pushes away from the region.

By Tuesday precipitation chances will begin to diminish and
continue to decrease through the end of the week as the upper
level ridge strengthens and expands eastward. Near record to
record high temperatures will be possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     73  92  73  96 /  30  20  20  20
Carlsbad                       71  96  71  99 /  20  20  20  10
Dryden                         77 102  77 100 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  73  97  73  98 /  20  20  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 66  89  68  90 /  20  20  20  20
Hobbs                          68  90  68  94 /  30  20  10  10
Marfa                          64  91  63  92 /  30  40  20  30
Midland Intl Airport           72  93  72  97 /  20  20  10  10
Odessa                         72  93  72  97 /  20  20  10  10
Wink                           74  97  74 100 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

29

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
218 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-060730-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
218 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020 /118 AM MDT Sun Jul 5 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are possible across much of the region this
afternoon and evening, with gusty winds, small hail, locally heavy
rain, and frequent lightning possible. Some storms across portions of
Southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin may become strong to
severe, with damaging wind gusts the primary threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS while following all local, state and CDC guidelines.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

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