Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
623 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2020

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours. TS may affect
HOB/CNM through 02Z, then should dissipate. TS in the area of
FST/PEQ should remain away from the terminals.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 228 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2020/

DISCUSSION...

Morning cloud cover across eastern portions of the forecast area
dissipated by early afternoon, with temperatures areawide quickly
warming toward highs in the middle to upper 90s for most.
Convection has developed bit earlier this afternoon than
yesterday, with a few storms already over the Davis Mountains near
Fort Davis, and additional cumulus development noted over the
Marfa Plateau. Expect additional development through this
afternoon and evening, mainly across the higher terrain and
adjacent plains of Southeast New Mexico and West Texas, though
some of the high-resolution guidance indicates potential for
storms to progress as far east as the western Permian Basin and
Stockton Plateau later this evening. While organized severe
weather is not anticipated, storms will be capable of producing
gusty winds, brief downpours, and frequent lightning. Activity
will wane somewhat after sunset, though lingering storms are
possible west of the Pecos River through late evening, with
coverage gradually shifting south toward the Rio Grande overnight.
Elevated moisture will maintain above normal low temperatures
tonight, with lows in the 70s for most, and 60s across portions of
Southeast New Mexico and across the higher terrain.

Sunday, a trough over the Pacific Northwest will begin to progress
southeastward, displacing the southern CONUS ridge axis to the east.
Resulting westerly flow aloft will yield the beginning of a warming
trend across Southeast New Mexico and West Texas, with highs Sunday
about 3-5 degrees warmer than today, reaching into the upper
90s/lower 100s for all but the higher terrain. Low chances for
storms continue tomorrow, with activity expected to shift eastward
where moisture will be more abundant. Heading into next week, the
warming trend continues, with Monday looking like the warmest day
with highs in the lower 100s across the Plains, and lower to
middle 90s across the mountains. Rain chances will shift south
toward the Rio Grande and gradually decrease through next week as
upper ridging redevelops over the region. High temperatures look
to remain in the middle 90s to lower 100s through midweek, before
cooling slightly, but remaining above normal next Friday/Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     73  99  75 103 /  10  20  10  10
Carlsbad                       70 100  73 101 /  20  10   0   0
Dryden                         75  99  76 100 /  10  20  10  20
Fort Stockton                  72  99  73 100 /  20  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 66  92  67  92 /  30  10   0   0
Hobbs                          68  96  69  99 /  20  10  10   0
Marfa                          60  91  61  92 /  40  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           73  99  74 102 /  10  10  10  10
Odessa                         73  99  75 101 /  10  10  10  10
Wink                           72 101  73 103 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

99/99/10

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
136 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2020

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-281845-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
136 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2020 /1236 PM MDT Sat Jun 27 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a chance of thunderstorms into the evening across southeast
New Mexico and areas generally south and west of the Pecos River.
Gusty winds, small hail, locally heavy rain, and frequent lightning
will be possible with these storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS while following all local, state and CDC guidelines.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
717 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2020

TXZ279-280-282-280045-
Chisos Basin TX-Central Brewster County TX-Lower Brewster County TX-
717 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL BREWSTER COUNTY
UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

At 717 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Panther Junction, moving east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Panther Junction, Boquillas Canyon, Chisos Basin and Big Bend
National Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2919 10298 2926 10341 2954 10329 2944 10283
      2941 10283 2940 10281 2936 10285 2935 10288
      2929 10289 2926 10291 2925 10289 2922 10292
      2919 10292 2919 10294 2917 10295
TIME...MOT...LOC 0017Z 280DEG 20KT 2939 10322

12

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
725 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2020

NMZ029-033-TXZ045-280100-
Northern Lea County NM-Central Lea County NM-Gaines TX-
725 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL LEA AND NORTHWESTERN
GAINES COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT/700 PM MDT/...

At 724 PM CDT/624 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm near Humble City, or 10 miles north of Hobbs, moving
north at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hobbs, Humble City, Industrial Airpark and Knowles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3309 10306 3296 10306 3296 10301 3275 10307
      3274 10325 3279 10325 3311 10330
TIME...MOT...LOC 0024Z 200DEG 14KT 3287 10318

12

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
645 PM MDT Sat Jun 27 2020

NMZ033-280130-
Central Lea County NM-
645 PM MDT Sat Jun 27 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL LEA AND SOUTHWESTERN
GAINES COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM MDT...

At 645 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Monument, or near Hobbs, moving east at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hobbs, Nadine, Monument and Lea County Regional Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3274 10307 3262 10306 3260 10306 3256 10339
      3275 10340
TIME...MOT...LOC 0045Z 250DEG 9KT 3268 10323

12

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