Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
637 PM CDT Mon May 11 2020

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Have Thunderstorms over/near most TAF sites at this time and
included in all TAFS. Currently a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in
effect until midnight CDT... these storms capable of producing
large hail and wind gusts in excess of 50kts. If storms continue
to move east an AWW will be needed for MAF in the next hour or two.
Expect after 05z conditions to quieten down.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 231 PM CDT Mon May 11 2020/

DISCUSSION...
The steering flow this week will be text book zonal flow with
westerly winds bringing a series of week disturbances across the
area. The first weak upper trough will cause storms to develop
this afternoon and move east into the Permian Basin later this
evening. Instability and shear is enough that any storms could
become severe with large hail and strong winds the primary threat.
See SPCs SWODY1 for more details.

Tuesday dries out due to weak upper ridging then another round of
possibly severe storms is expected Wednesday with the passage of
another trough. Another one day break then a third disturbance
arrives Friday increasing rain chances again, this time mainly
for the eastern Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos though rain
chances may be pulled back farther west in subsequent forecasts.

Temperatures throughout this week will be near normal with highs
in the upper 80s to lower 90s. The lack of an amplified upper
level ridge or strong cold front will prevent much of a departure
from the mean for temps.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     62  89  67  91 /  50  10  10  20
Carlsbad                       57  93  58  93 /  30   0   0   0
Dryden                         64  92  67  91 /  40  10   0  30
Fort Stockton                  61  91  65  91 /  60  10   0  30
Guadalupe Pass                 54  82  56  82 /  20   0   0   0
Hobbs                          55  89  58  91 /  50   0   0  10
Marfa                          51  86  53  87 /  40   0   0  20
Midland Intl Airport           61  91  67  92 /  50  10   0  20
Odessa                         61  91  66  92 /  50   0   0  20
Wink                           59  94  62  95 /  50   0   0  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
215 PM CDT Mon May 11 2020

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-121915-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
215 PM CDT Mon May 11 2020 /115 PM MDT Mon May 11 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across much of the area
through tonight, especially this evening. A few storms may become
strong to severe accompanied by damaging winds and large hail.
Locally heavy rainfall is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Another round of thunderstorms is expected Wednesday across west
Texas. A few storms could be strong to severe with locally heavy
rainfall possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon or early
this evening.

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS while following all local, state and CDC guidelines.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
702 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0657 PM     FLASH FLOOD      FORT STOCKTON           30.89N 102.89W
05/11/2020                   PECOS              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            2 CARS FLOODED IN FORT STOCKTON.

&&

HENNIG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
707 PM CDT Mon May 11 2020

TXZ059-067-274-120045-
Loving TX-Ward TX-Reeves County Plains TX-
707 PM CDT Mon May 11 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL REEVES...NORTHWESTERN
WARD AND SOUTHEASTERN LOVING COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

At 707 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles south of Mentone, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm. Also locally heavy rain.

Locations impacted include...
Pecos, Mentone, Barstow and Pecos Municipal Airport.

This includes Interstate 20 between mile markers 27 and 52.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
western and southwestern Texas.

LAT...LON 3135 10373 3162 10375 3191 10338 3133 10332
TIME...MOT...LOC 0007Z 239DEG 29KT 3159 10363

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
726 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     HAIL             14 SE FORT STOCKTON     30.73N 102.75W
05/11/2020  E2.50 INCH       Pecos              TX   PUBLIC

            ALONG HWY 285.

&&

SAMANTHA.ZUBER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
747 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 SW PECOS              31.39N 103.52W
05/11/2020  E61 MPH          Reeves             TX   AWOS

&&

SAMANTHA.ZUBER

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