Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
628 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2020

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 19/00Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Initial round of convection has moved off northeast of KMAF while
additional -SHRA is developing west of KCNM and KPEQ. Looking for
another round of -SHRA ahead of a Pacific cold front this evening
with TEMPO TSRA possible in MVFR visibilities at KFST and KMAF
late this evening through the early morning hours at these TAF
sites. Variable and gusty winds in the 30 to 40 knot range will
be possible with SHRA/TSRA activity. Expect the Pacific cold front
to sweep from west to east before sunrise with VFR conditions
areawide, with southwesterly to westerly winds cranking up to
around 20 knots sustained with gusts over 30 knots by midday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2020/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the west coast upper trough has separated in two,
w/the southern portion just making landfall at Baja del Norte,
leaving progressive SW flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico.  Ahead of this feature, large-scale forcing has resulted in
convection developing from wrn Sonora to Far West Texas.  The latest
hi-res models bring this convection onto our higher terrain out west
over the next couple of hours.  12Z KMAF raob came in fairly
unimpressive, save for impressive deep-lyr shear (~50kts),
helicities (~ 150 m2/s2), and low LCL.  Raob indicated that upper-
lvl winds had increased to ~90kts, but models increase this to
120kts overnight.  Mid-lvl winds were 60kts, but these are forecast
to increase to 90kts tonight as well, yielding 0-6km bulk shear of
70-90kts.  Best lapse rates for hail look to stay just ahead
of/along the Pac front, which moves thru late tonight.  All that
said, instability in forecast soundings is initially tepid, but
increases overnight, suggesting this could be a late-night event.

The Pac front will scour moisture east as it plows thru the region
Thu. We've gone ahead and upgraded the watch for the
Guadalupes/Delawares, given strong mtn wave signatures in the progs.
Unfortunately, the Pac front will take temps to just below normal
Thu afternoon.  A secondary cold front late Thu night will then take
temps well-blo normal Fri/Sat, w/Sat being the coldest day this
forecast.  Dirty weak ridging sets in Sunday, however, for a rebound
to near-normal Sunday afternoon, and then temps into the 80s most
locations by Tue, which could be our warmest temps yet this year.
Aside from isolated convection ern fringes Thu night-Sat night,
extended grids stay dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     56  70  43  55 /  80   0  10   0
Carlsbad                       47  67  40  64 /  60   0   0   0
Dryden                         58  83  54  73 /  50   0  30   0
Fort Stockton                  54  74  47  66 /  70   0  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 40  55  40  57 /  60   0   0   0
Hobbs                          47  65  38  59 /  70   0   0   0
Marfa                          44  69  39  69 /  80   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           54  70  44  58 /  80   0   0   0
Odessa                         54  69  44  58 /  80   0   0   0
Wink                           52  71  43  65 /  80   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 8 PM MDT Thursday for Eddy County
     Plains.

     High Wind Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 PM MDT Thursday
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 9 PM CDT Thursday for Eastern
     Culberson County-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     High Wind Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 PM MDT Thursday
     for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and
     Delaware Mountains.

&&

70/70/70

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
442 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2020

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-192145-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
442 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2020 /342 PM MDT Wed Mar 18 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A Tornado Watch is in effect until midnight CDT for Borden, Scurry,
Howard, Mitchell, Glasscock, and Reagan Counties.

Thunderstorms are expected today and tonight across the area. There
is an enhanced risk of severe storms across the eastern Permian
Basin with a slight risk of severe storms east of a Hobbs to
Marathon line. Large to very large hail, damaging wind, frequent
lightning, and a few tornadoes are possible.

High wind is likely across the Guadalupe Mountains beginning late
tonight. A High Wind Warning is in effect

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

A High Wind Warning is in effect Thursday for the Guadalupe
Mountains. A Wind Advisory is in effect Thursday for Eddy and
Culberson Counties.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
630 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2020

TXZ047-048-190015-
Scurry TX-Borden TX-
630 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SCURRY AND EASTERN
BORDEN COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

At 630 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Gail, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fluvanna.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for western
Texas.

LAT...LON 3253 10133 3267 10151 3297 10127 3296 10117
      3297 10105 3296 10076
TIME...MOT...LOC 2330Z 219DEG 35KT 3270 10137

24

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
830 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2020

TXZ068-075-082-190215-
Pecos TX-Crane TX-Terrell TX-
830 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL PECOS...SOUTH CENTRAL
CRANE AND NORTH CENTRAL TERRELL COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM CDT...

At 830 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles south of Fort Stockton to 22 miles
northwest of Sanderson. Movement was northeast at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Stockton, Bakersfield, Girvin and Fort Stockton-Pecos County
Airport.

This includes Interstate 10 between mile markers 258 and 302.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3061 10193 3019 10275 3083 10299 3129 10253
      3109 10235 3108 10237 3107 10233
TIME...MOT...LOC 0130Z 220DEG 33KT 3077 10288 3034 10270

24

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
836 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2020

TXZ067-068-075-274-190215-
Pecos TX-Crane TX-Ward TX-Reeves County Plains TX-
836 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PECOS...EAST CENTRAL
REEVES...EASTERN WARD AND WEST CENTRAL CRANE COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM
CDT...

At 836 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 18
miles southwest of Grandfalls, or 21 miles northwest of Fort
Stockton, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Monahans, Thorntonville, Grandfalls, Wickett, Royalty, Fort
Stockton-Pecos County Airport, Coyanosa, Imperial Reservoir,
Imperial, Roy Hurd Memorial Airport, Cordona Lake and Firestone Test
Track.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 10 between mile markers 249 and 257.
 Interstate 20 between mile markers 73 and 83.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3165 10295 3165 10290 3129 10252 3082 10300
      3117 10328
TIME...MOT...LOC 0136Z 222DEG 33KT 3115 10307

24

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
913 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2020

TXZ050-051-060>063-067>069-075-190315-
Midland TX-Pecos TX-Martin TX-Andrews TX-Crane TX-Ector TX-
Glasscock TX-Upton TX-Ward TX-Winkler TX-
913 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL PECOS...WESTERN
GLASSCOCK...ECTOR...SOUTHEASTERN ANDREWS...NORTHEASTERN WARD...
MIDLAND...SOUTHEASTERN WINKLER...SOUTHWESTERN MARTIN...CRANE AND
NORTHWESTERN UPTON COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM CDT...

At 913 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from West Odessa to 7 miles
southwest of Crane. Movement was northeast at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Midland, Odessa, Monahans, Crane, Thorntonville, Goldsmith, Midland
International Air and Space Port, West Odessa, Cotton Flat, Crane
County Airport, Warfield, Roy Hurd Memorial Airport, Midland Airpark,
Skywest Airport, Monahans Sandhills State Park, Odessa Schlemeyer
Field, Penwell, Imperial, Pleasant Farms and Cordona Lake.

This includes Interstate 20 between mile markers 78 and 141.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for western
Texas.

LAT...LON 3231 10238 3175 10168 3112 10262 3155 10296
TIME...MOT...LOC 0213Z 209DEG 30KT 3183 10248 3133 10245

24